Salem Political Snark

Vanessa Nordyke makes closing argument for Salem's livability levy

City Councilor Vanessa Nordyke is an attorney. Today she made a presentation to the Salem City Club that she called a closing argument for Measure 24-514 on the May ballot -- which is unofficially called the livability levy, being a property tax increase to fund the library, parks, and Center 50+.

Nordyke said that she chose her black suit because it's what she likes to wear to a closing argument. "Closing," because ballots need to be postmarked on or before May 20, or put in a drop box before 8 pm on the 20th. That's just eleven days away.

Here's a slide from her presentation that I consider to be one of the most persuasive reasons to vote for the measure, if someone hasn't already made up their mind about the livability levy.

In the top row on the very right is a logo of the Salem Area Chamber of Commerce. In the middle of the third row is the logo of the Marion County Democrats. It's rare that these organizations are on the same side of a major issue, especially one that involves a tax increase.

But there they are, strange bedfellows, united in their view that Salem is best served by having a properly funded library, parks, and senior center. Nordyke's next slide said, "And now, a few words from the organized opposition to the levy..." There weren't even a few words, because there's no organized opposition.

One reason is described in the following excerpt from a valuable Salem Reporter story about Measure 24-514 by Rachel Alexander that was published a few days ago, "Salem Reporter answers your questions about city tax levy and what comes next."
Download Salem Reporter answers your questions about city tax levy and what comes next - Salem Reporter

Why doesn’t the city just spend less?

City officials have taken some steps to cut costs, including freezing hiring on some vacant positions, eliminating an assistant city manager job and curtailing travel and supply spending.

But some rising expenses are outside the city’s control. Pension rates, a major driver of growing city expenses, are set by the state. Salem will spend about $11 million more this year paying those costs for already-retired workers.

An outside committee of business and nonprofit executives reviewed the city’s budget early this year. They concluded the city was already providing services more efficiently than other Oregon cities, and that the issues with the city’s budget were largely due to structural issues outside city control.

Erdmann said that review was what led the home builders to endorse the levy.

City officials say more cost-cutting would mean reducing services.

If the livability levy doesn't pass, cuts would be extreme. Here's a few examples: the library would only be open 20 hours per week, with over half of library staff laid off; all hard (permanent) restrooms in 70 neighborhood parks would be closed; Center 50+ would cut two part-time employees, reducing outreach, programming and volunteer recruitment.

So I urge you to vote YES on Measure 24-514. We've got to keep Salem livable.

Upcoming "livability" property tax levy explained at Salem City Club talk

Today Keith Stahley, Salem's City Manager (basically the CEO of city government), gave a presentation to the Salem City Club about the city's budget problems that led to a decision by the City Council to put a "livability" property tax levy on the May 2025 ballot.

Livability refers to the Library, Center 50+, and Parks/Recreation -- funding for which will be the focus of the levy. I took photos of almost all of Stahley's slide presentation, missing just a couple of slides. I'll use those slides as the basis for this report on what Stahley said. 

Keith Stahley, standing at a podium vacated by City Club president Sean Nikas

Stahley started off by saying that this year is special for the City of Salem. We are at a budgetary cliff, a Thelma and Louise moment (for those old enough to remember the 1991 movie). City government faces a $13.81 million deficit. The only options are more revenue or less expense.

The slide above shows how the city is spending its money in Fiscal Year 2025, which runs from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025. Police and Fire make up about 60% of the $191 million general fund budget. Community Services, which includes the Library, Center 50+, and Parks/Recreation, comprise about 10% of the budget. 

The budgetary woes of the City of Salem aren't unique. Other cities in Oregon are facing similar problems.

About $8 million has been cut from the general fund budget in FY 2024 and 2025.

A Revenue Task Force came up with eight options for bringing more money into the general fund. The highlighted options are the current favorites: Franchise Fee increase for the near-term option; Local Option Property Tax Levy for the medium-term option; Payment in Lieu of Taxes (County, State, Federal) for the Long-Term Option). The latter refers to the fact that government agencies don't pay property taxes, with state government getting out of $7.3 million a year that the City of Salem hopes to obtain from the state legislature.

A poll conducted for the City of Salem found that residents don't favor any tax increase that generates more revenue for city services. A Public Safety levy polled better than a Community Livability levy, which will be on the May ballot.

Stahley said that for the levy to pass, community support will have to be increased through various means: the Mayor and City Council; Unions and City Employees; Boards, Commissions, and Foundations; Community Organizations. He noted that a levy in Gresham started with less than 40% support in February and eventually passed with 64% support in May. 

The local option levy was chosen by the City Council in November 2024 to fund the Library, Parks, and Center 50+. 

A local option levy is a temporary property tax, usually lasting five years.

The tax rates per $1,000 of property value shown between the horizontal lines are the favored rates for the levy: $.99 to $1.10. The amount remains to be determined. The household impact of the $1.00 rate is $234 per year, which indicates that city officials are assuming an average household property value of $234,000. I assume this is correct, though some Googling revealed that the median sold home price in Salem is about $445,000. However, in Oregon the market value can differ quite a bit from the value used for property taxes.

The livability levy would raise around $14-16 million in FY 2026, while the livability services are budgeted at about $21 million. But as shown in another slide below, the services generate income that markedly reduces the gap between expenses and revenues.

Salem's Library currently is only open 38 hours a week, while the Eugene Library is open 61 hours. Even if the budget cuts made to the Salem Library are restored, it will only be open 53 hours. Much better, but not great. The West Salem branch would go from 10 hours a week to 25 hours.

Once revenues generated by the Library, Center 50+, and Parks/Recreation are included, the net cost of these services in FY 2026 is estimated to be about $15.1 million. So there's only about a $1 million gap between what could be raised by the livability levy and the cost of those services, which Stahley said could be managed fairly easily.

A general fund deficit would still exist, just a much smaller one.

These are some other ways for the City of Salem to raise revenue and cut expenses.

Here's the timeline for the May election. The Library Foundation is going to pay for the $35,000 cost of the election from their funds. 

During the Q&A part of the program, Stahley said that the May election was favored for the levy because if it passes, money would begin to be available in November 2025, when property tax statements go out. Asked whether the Chamber of Commerce would support the levy, he said that the Chamber is involved with an efficiency review committee that will look at how city government operates. He's hopeful that the committee will say that the budget is in great shape.

Democratic and Republican leaders preview 2025 legislature at Salem City Club

In the not-so-old days, the Oregon legislature only met every two years. Now it convenes for a short session in even-numbered years, like 2024, and for a long session in odd-numbered years, like 2025.

Today the Salem City Club had a program that featured the Senate Democratic Majority Leader, Kayse Jama, and the House Republican Leader, Christine Drazan (she ran for Governor in 2022).

Christine Drazan and Kayse Jama

Jama, a Somali-American, spoke first. Due to his accent and use of a handheld microphone (a built-in microphone wasn't working) I had some difficulty in understanding him. So I'll use this as an excuse for any errors in what Jama said, along with my notoriously bad handwriting as I took notes.

He noted that Oregon faces a lot of challenges, including rising prices. Unity is needed. Citizens expect Democrats and Republicans to work together in the upcoming legislative session. 

Protecting the rights of all Oregonians is a Democratic priority. So are building more affordable housing and dealing with homelessness, issues that obviously are related. Constructing infrastructure on land suitable for housing is needed: sewer, water, and such. 

He doesn't think that public safety can be achieved by arresting our way out of crime. LGBTQ rights are important to assure. Collaboration between diverse interests will be needed to solve the state's problems. We need to work together and be kind to each other.

Drazan then described the Republican approach. The status quo isn't working. This is an opportunity to work across the aisle (Democrats control both the state House and Senate). She said that billions of dollars already have been spent on housing without a whole lot of results.

There are still too many people living on the streets. We need to try something different, a new strategy. We need to better understand the population we're serving, whether this be the homeless or students. 

Oregon schools are falling behind on test scores. She urged that students be viewed as customers, putting them at the center of the conversation about education policies. Oregon's state budget is a moral document. The key question to be asked of programs is "Will it work?" Accountability measures are sorely needed. 

In the Q&A part of the program, I asked about Oregon's land use program, saying that in states with strong land use rules, farm and forest land is better protected but affordable housing is lacking compared to states with weaker land use rules. So where is the balance to be struck?

Drazan said that since the passage of Oregon's pioneering land use program (in the early 1970s), more requirements keep being added. Carve-outs from the program occur for particular purposes, but she prefers a general revamping of the state's land use rules that would better balance economic vitality with protecting the environment.

Someone asked Drazan if she would take money away from public schools and give it to private schools. She said that she believes in public schools but wants a focus to return to individual students, as some students are not being served well. She favors a "yes, and" rather than an "either, or" approach to the public-private debate. We need to be more flexible with education. 

After a questioner asked if the "kicker" should be done away with, Jama said that conversation is needed. Drazan gave a fairly intricate answer that, if I understood it correctly, basically said that if the legislature had been able to spend all of the revenue available in strong economic years, the state would be in worse shape now due to the need to either keep funding new programs during weak economic years, or eliminating them when times became tough. 

(The kicker rebates money to taxpayers when revenues come in several percent more than what was projected by the state economist for the next two-year period.)

After the program ended I went up to Drazan, shook her hand, and told her, with a smile on my face, that I was pleased to hear a Republican say things that made quite a bit of sense to me. I also said that it was a pleasure to have she and Jama engage in this dialogue, as Democrats and Republicans don't do much of that in Washington D.C. these days.

Of course, after the meeting I told someone else that Republican politicians in Oregon are prone to appearing more moderate in public than they do in private, given our state's electoral leaning toward the Democratic Party. So I'll take a wait-and-see approach to how collaborative Republicans turn out to be in the 2025 legislative session. 

Political scientist explains why Trump won at City Club talk

After a national election, I look forward to Ed Dover explaining the results at a Salem City Club presentation. Dover is a retired political science professor at Western Oregon University. Dover's talk last Friday was his 13th City Club appearance.

Dover began by saying that asking the right questions is key to understanding election results. Adapting the opening song from Hamilton, he said, how could a liar, conman, narcissist, sex with a porn star candidate become president for the second time?

Three factors: (1) Entrenched partisanship, (2) Retrospective voting, (3) Democratic constituencies. 

Entrenched partisanship. Other countries have more variation in their political parties. Sometimes there are 10-12 in a parliamentary system. They come and go, while our Republican and Democratic parties are very old, dating from the late 1700s and mid 1800s. This makes them highly entrenched.

Dover likened this to trench warfare in World War I. At the battle of Verdun, where 800,000 soldiers were killed, the most ground gained by the Germans was 200 yards.

In like fashion, the Democratic and Republican parties are almost equal in strength. Over the last four presidential elections, the Democratic candidates got 49% of the vote and the Republican candidates 48%. With 435 seats in the House of Representatives, it looks like the Democrats will gain 1-2 seats via the recent election. 

Not long ago, parties adapted to their state. In Oregon, at one time we had a Republican Governor, Tom McCall, and two Republican Senators, Bob Packwood and Mark Hatfield. They were more liberal than almost every GOP elected official today. 

Now the parties are national. Every statewide office is held by a Democrat, and the 2024 election gave Democrats a supermajority in both the state House and Senate. But only two seats switched parties in the 60-member House and 30-member Senate, one in the House and one in the Senate.

In the Northwest states (Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Montana), of 24 House seats, 22 stayed with the same party. Republicans picked up a seat in Alaska; Democrats picked up a seat in Oregon.

Nationally, Trump outpaced Harris in the popular vote by just 1.6%, which could be 1.5% after all the votes are counted. In Polk County, out of 16 precincts Harris won six, the same number won by the Democratic candidate since 2000. 

Retrospective voting. This occurs when voters don't look ahead, but to the past, in this case 2019-24. About 1/3 of voters said the economy was their most important issue. They were bothered by higher prices and higher interest rates on mortgages and other debt. 

Dover said that a president doesn't have control of the economy. However, a president is the face of the economy, and that hurt Harris. In 1976 gasoline went from 50 cents a gallon to $1 a gallon after OPEC restricted oil production. Prices for other goods adjusted accordingly. If Reagan had become president in 1976 rather than Carter, likely he wouldn't have been reelected. 

Harris suffered from inflation taking off in the post-covid period. People switched jobs. The United States had a worker shortage, so wages were increased. The average working person was more affected by inflation than the rich. Wealth inequality bothered voters.

Structural problems will continue during the Trump administration, but now Trump will be blamed for economic issues. Inflation may increase again, after a recent decline, if Trump imposes widespread tariffs, which are paid by the purchaser of imported goods, who will pass on the cost to consumers. 

Democratic constituencies. Trump got 2 1/2 million more votes than he did in 2020. Harris got 4 1/2 million fewer votes than Biden did. Why? Many Democrats didn't vote in 2024 after voting in 2020. But likely this isn't a permanent feature of presidential politics. 

In 1992 Democrats controlled the presidency and both the House and Senate. Then in 1994 Democrats didn't vote. In 2000 many Democrats voted for Ralph Nader. If Gore had gotten 1% of the 100,000 votes cast for Nader in Florida, Gore would have become president rather than George W. Bush. In 2008 Obama won the presidency, and Democrats won the House and Senate. In 2010 Democrats lost control of Congress. In 2016 Clinton got money from Wall Street, and 20% of Sanders supporters didn't vote in the general election. 

These days a victorious political party only has 18 months to deal with problems of the past fifty years. Dover said that we may be in an era of one-term presidents. 

During the question and answer period, Dover said:

-- The effect of Biden not campaigning for Harris wasn't evident.
-- Third parties had a minimal effect in 2024.
-- Ranked choice voting failed in Oregon because the pro ads weren't effective.
-- We're #88! Since 87 other countries have elected a woman leader before the U.S.
-- The Wyoming GOP, which heavily controls the state, is the most bitterly divided.
-- Democratic lack of turnout made the difference in the swing states. 
-- In 2028 the Democrats will nominate a similar person, but the economy will work for them next time.

Gen Z featured at youthful Salem City Club program

Today the Salem City Club program was Exploring the 'American Dream' with Gen Z. The average age of the five panelists -- Reid Millis, Patrick Hirsig-Gutierrez, Elijah Leutwyler, Llayne Ngo, and Emma Jensen -- was markedly lower than the mostly gray-haired audience.

Which was refreshing. I felt younger just being in the presence of Generation Z members, who, as the chart below shows, were born between 1997 and 2012.

Here's the panelists, plus moderator Melanie Zermer (holding a microphone). I didn't keep track of what each panelist said, so their comments will be lumped together.

When asked about the American Dream, the overarching theme from the panelists was that while they respected the traditional notion of hard work leading to material/monetary success, this being important to their parents and grandparents, they were also skeptical of it.

Working long hours requires sacrifice: less time for exercise, family, gardening, hobbies, and such. Not everyone thrives at a typical job. Money isn't as important to Gen Z'ers, also known as Zoomers, as it was to previous generations. 

They don't trust authority. Authorities push their vision of the American Dream. The panelists didn't want someone else's dream, they wanted their own, which is truly individual. Their parents had their own dream, which Gen Z may not share.

Asked how their generation is the same or different from their parents, a greater concern for sustainability and the environment was mentioned. A giant house in the suburbs isn't sustainable. Protecting the environment is important to them. 

They aren't into group loyalty as much, preferring individualism versus sticking together as a group. At the same time, collective effort is valued when this seems called for. 

Barriers to achieving their version of the American Dream were discussed. Government is one cause, since politicians haven't done as much as Gen Z wants to reduce gun violence, barriers to health care, and environmental problems such as global warming.

A panelist who had lived in other countries said that Americans live with fear every day, which isn't the case in those nations. Student loan debt was cited as a Gen Z burden, along with a worry that programs such as Social Security and Medicare won't be available to them when they need it. "I'll have to work my whole life," said a panelist. 

In the Q&A part of the program, I asked if their views on religion and spirituality were as individualistic and non-traditional as their views on other areas. Short answer: yes. They believe in openness and not taking values from a church, but from their self. 

Someone asked what it takes to get Gen Z to vote. Panelists said that if their generation sees that voting matters, they will vote. Small local elections such as for school board members may generate more interest among Gen Z, since the effect of a vote is more obvious. 

In his concluding remarks, City Club president Russ Beaton had an apt observation that he applies in various settings: "Would I rather have this group running the country?" His answer for Gen Z, which is mine as well, is a resounding Yes.

I enjoy the Salem City Club. Consider joining.

I've been a member of the Salem City Club for a bit over ten years. I was invited to join by Russ Beaton, a retired Willamette University economics professor. He and his wife, Delana, are active volunteers in the City Club.

Me, I just go to the programs.

They're from noon to 1 pm on selected Fridays at the Willamette Heritage Center, which used to be called Mission Mill. A box lunch can be ordered, but it isn't necessary to buy one. I bring some food with me and eat it after the program, when I head off to exercise at Courthouse Club Fitness.

After the invited speakers do their thing, usually there's plenty of time for questions. The questions and answers often are almost as interesting as what the speakers had to say in their prepared remarks. The basic idea of the City Club is fostering a sense of civic involvement and community. 

I lean decidedly toward the liberal side of the political spectrum, as do many other City Club members. But there's conservatives in the City Club also. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a microcosm of Salem, in part because the membership tilts in the older direction. Still, I enjoy meeting the fairly diverse people who belong.

That's one reason I'm writing this post and sharing it on Facebook -- in hopes that more younger people will join.

A new season of City Club programs begins on September 8, along with a membership drive. If anyone is interested in attending a program as my guest at no cost (otherwise non-members are charged $5), email me and we can work something out. 

Here's a City Club message that appeared in my email inbox today. It'll give you a good feel for what the City Club is all about, and what programs are going to kick off the 2023-24 year. Programs usually are every other Friday, aside from holidays.

A Great Way To Start

By Ron Eachus, Salem City Club President
 
After a successful return to in-person meetings last year, Salem City Club is ready to begin a new season this fall with some critical topics and wonderful speakers at the familiar Willamette Heritage Center venue.

We will begin with two new public officials. The season will start on September 8 with Congresswoman Andrea Salinas, who was elected last November as the first to represent Oregon’s new Sixth Congressional District. She will be followed on September 22 by Andrea Castañeda, the Salem-Keizer School District’s new superintendent.

One of the Program Committee themes for this season is climate change and its effect on our daily lives through its impact on the economy and the environment. We will be following our first two speakers with programs on the impact of global warming on insurance rates, the plans for the transition to electric vehicles, and where climate related funds from the Inflation Reduction Act are being used in Oregon.

Our mission is the same - a space for civil discourse for civic good. It is a critical mission in the current vitriolic political environment and it will take strong, active support from membership to carry out. So, when it comes time, please renew your membership donation!

But we will also be asking you to help expand Salem City Club by reaching out to potential new members and encouraging them to join. Future communications will describe the membership options in more detail. But the best ambassadors for City Club and its mission are our members so save the dates for attending the programs and help us expand our membership by reaching out to others. Remember, members can introduce others to City Club by bringing a guest for free.