Salem Political Snark

Good and bad of Mayor Hoy's 2023 State of the City address

A few days ago Salem Mayor Chris Hoy gave his first State of the City address at the Salem Convention Center. You can read what he had to say by clicking on the "continuation" link at the end of this blog post.

Hoy's talk was well-written and informative. I came away impressed by the rundown on what has been accomplished in Salem. 

The homelessness section made me think that maybe, just maybe, we're finally making a dent in the number of people without a place of their own to call home. The micro shelters are helping with this. The Navigation Center to be opened in a few months sounds like a terrific addition to our homeless services.

I noticed in the section of the speech below that Mayor Hoy failed to mention that a big reason why the homeless person wasn't arrested for methamphetamine use is Measure 110, which decriminalized the possession of small amounts of illegal drugs like meth.

I'm a supporter of Measure 110, so I wanted to point out that it facilitates addicts asking for help, since now they don't have to worry about jail time. Hoy said: 

In fact, an officer recently contacted an individual living on the streets who was an admitted methamphetamine addict. He told the officer he was ready for help. The officer knew it was critical to get the person into help right then. Through his contacts with local service providers, they were collectively able to get him into substance abuse treatment. Previous approaches would have resulted in the individuals arrest, but now he is getting the intervention he needs that will hopefully help him break the cycle of addiction. 

Mayor Hoy says that paid on-street parking in the downtown area is inevitable. Well, maybe. I just hope that before the City Council approves downtown parking meters, doing away with the current 3-hour free on-street parking, there's a genuine attempt to gauge public opinion on this.

City officials shouldn't assume that the people pushing for parking meters, which I suspect includes the Salem Main Street Association, truly represent a broad cross-section of downtown visitors, business owners, and residents.

Given that I strongly suspect the push to bring back commercial passenger air service to the Salem airport is doomed to fail like previous attempts have, the laudatory mention of this effort by Mayor Hoy may not age well when looked at in a few years.

Since air travel is one of the biggest ways individuals contribute to increased greenhouse gas emissions, it's perplexing that Hoy, who strongly supported the Salem Climate Action Plan, is so positive about bringing commercial passenger air travel to the Salem airport.

My biggest problem with Mayor Hoy's talk was his unabashed support for adding 70 new officers to the Salem Police Department and 111 new firefighters to the Salem Fire Department. Those departments already suck up the majority of general fund tax dollars, about 60% to my understanding.

Crime rates in Salem are stable. Salem has about the same number of police officers per 1,000 population as other Oregon cities our size. So adding 70 new officers seems wildly out of place.

Fires are a small proportion of calls to the Fire Department, since it mostly is a "Medical Department." It's crazy that giant fire engines are used to respond to medical calls, that all of those engines need to be replaced at considerable cost, and that there's an effort to add 111 new firefighters to the Salem Fire Department without first looking at ways to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the department.

Mayor Hoy began his talk by saying "It's a time of fresh ideas." OK, then let's explore fresh ideas for the Police and Fire Departments that don't involve massive tax increases to pay for many more officers and firefighters who, apparently, would be doing the same un-fresh things.

You can read Mayor Hoy's talk below.

Community Improvement Bond discussed at Salem City Club

In next Tuesday's election Salem voters will decide the fate of the $300 million Community Improvement Bond. Last Friday the City Club had an informational program about the bond featuring new Mayor Chris Hoy and Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Hoffert.

It was more interesting than I thought it would be. But then, my life is pretty routine, so I have a low bar when it comes to what I find interesting.

Quite a few City of Salem staff were there, including the recently appointed City Manager Keith Stahley. But they couldn't advocate for the bond, leaving that up to Hoy, Hoffert, and a slide presentation. I don't live in the city limits, so can't vote on the bond. My attitude is that it deserves a half-hearted "yes" vote.

The bond measure is heavily tilted toward street improvements. Sidewalks also, but streets get the bulk of the $157 million in that category.

There's something for everybody, more or less, in the bond measure. Which means that it won't be transformative, as would be the case if Salem went all out toward becoming a Green city with markedly reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

Instead, Hoffert said that not everybody got everything they wanted, but no group said we weren't listened to. OK, probably politically wise, though by no means daring. 

I got to ask the first question from the audience. It went like this: "Since medical calls account for the vast majority of Fire Department calls [75% or so] rather than fires, why are large engines sent out on medical calls, leading to wear and tear on them, rather than using right-sized vehicles for medical calls?"

I asked this because $26 million is in the bond to replace all of the Fire Department's engines, which have reached the end of their useful life. The response from a department employee (didn't get his name) was what I'd heard before. 

They send out large fire trucks to medical calls because it isn't known what sort of call the truck will have to go to next. So by having a truck at a medical call, maybe it will be able to get to a vehicle accident or whatever quicker than if the truck was back at the station. I found this response logically unsatisfying, since it seems just as likely that a fire truck at the station could get to a fire more rapidly than a truck occupied with a medical call.

Someone else asked if the department had looked into electric engines. Answer: yes, but electric fire engines are very early in the electric vehicle process.

The slide above shows that if the bond passes, the $300 million will be spent from 2023 to 2032. So don't expect to see instant change. For example, new dog parks (a subject close to the heart of my canine-loving wife) won't begin to happen until 2026. 

After the meeting I asked city staff when paving the decrepit parking lot at the Minto Brown dog park would happen. The pleasing answer was early on, since paving is straightforward and simple.

I also asked City Manager Stahley how bond interest forecasts were estimated, since bonds will be issued about every three years for a portion of the $300 million. He pointed me to a financial guy at the meeting, who told me that basically they assume a mid-range interest on the bonds. Not too high, not too low, somewhere in the historical middle.

Lastly, this slide shows how the City of Salem is able to keep the amount Salem citizens pay for bond measures constant, even with the new $300 million bond. 

Vote for these progressive candidates in the May election

I like progress. That's why I'm a progressive.

And why I'm recommending that you vote for these candidates in the May election that likely will determine who becomes the next Salem mayor and wins the even-numbered Salem City Council seats.

(If a candidate gets 50% of the vote, plus one more vote, they win outright in the May election, which is a primary for partisan Democrat/Republican races, but usually is the deciding election in local nonpartisan races.)

For more detail, here's a recommendation I saw today from a progressive group that includes some additional races. They leave out the Ward 2 race because Linda Nishioka is running unopposed. I agree with their recommendations.

Lastly, I favor Andrea Salinas in the Democratic primary for the 6th Congressional District seat, and Tina Kotek in the Democratic primary for Governor.

I'm undecided in the Democratic primary for the 5th Congressional District seat. I'm not wild about Kurt Schrader, but I think he has a better chance than Jamie McLeod-Skinner of keeping this seat Democratic in the November general election, which could be crucial if control of the House comes down to just a few races.

Disappointing: Hoy versus Griggs in City Club debate

Since I like debates, and the Salem City Club called today's program a debate between the two candidates for Mayor, Chris Hoy and Chane Griggs, after I settled into my chair for the noon Zoom meeting, I was looking forward to some argumentative fireworks.

Instead, what transpired was more like a sparkler that fizzled a bit now and then, but mostly just gave off some smoke without any real heat. Or to mix my metaphors, Griggs and Hoy acted like two fighters who were so concerned about not getting knocked out, they neglected to throw any genuine punches.

Part of the problem was the mostly softball questions asked by the City Club moderator. Based on my sometimes legible notes, they included:

-- How do you see your role as Salem Mayor? Answers were predictable. Like, engage different communities. Treat people with respect. Nothing to debate here.

-- Your top three priorities? Both said homelessness. Griggs said public safety. Hoy said getting through the pandemic. Nothing much to debate here.

-- Most important factors in choosing new City Manager? Unsurprisingly, Griggs and Hoy want a City Manager who listens well, has the capacity to lead the City of Salem, fosters trust. Nothing to debate here.

-- Do you support the Salem Climate Action Plan? Hoy absolutely supports it. Griggs is very supportive of it. Nothing to debate here.

-- Any dramatic new priorities for the city? No, at least not by my definition of "dramatic." They both want to pass a new bond measure in November. If you view that as dramatic, you would have liked the debate more than I did. Nothing to debate here.

-- Thoughts about the bond measure? Unshockingly, Griggs wants to keep the public safe and combat homelessness. Hoy wants to build roads, like Marine Drive in West Salem, improve parks, add branch libraries, and construct affordable housing. A few differences, but nothing much to debate here.

Questions from the audience were a bit more interesting. Probably the entire debate should have focused on audience questions, since the ones the City Club came up with were pretty lame. 

Both Griggs and Hoy are in favor of more low-barrier shelters for the homeless, and otherwise agreed on the obvious: the homeless need homes. Nothing to debate here.

When an audience member asked, "What are your thoughts about the Third Bridge?," I perked up, desperately hoping for some disagreement between Griggs and Hoy. There was, but not very much.

Griggs said it was unfortunate that the Third Bridge proposal was rejected by the City Council, but she isn't saying the bridge was in the right location.  Hoy gave some good reasons why the Third Bridge was rejected: flyover ramps, displaced homes/businesses, tax burden on Salem residents, tolls. But he said "we do need to look at other options, such as another location for a Third Bridge." 

Neither Hoy nor Griggs are in favor of making a payment to neighbors of managed homeless sites. Nothing to debate here.

A question was asked about developer-oriented planning. Griggs said that city code determines whether a development proposal can be approved. Unless the code is changed, such as by adding more protections for trees, there's no liberty to make any other decision. Hoy said Griggs was 100% correct. Nothing to debate here.

Regarding the Covanta garbage burner, Hoy said that the legislature wrote a law that leaves Salem garbage collection 100% up to the Marion County Commission. The city has no choice in the matter. After Griggs said this means that the Mayor needs a good relationship with the county commissioners, which she has, Hoy chimed in that he also has a good relationship with them. Nothing to debate here.

When asked how they would meet the needs of the Latinx community, 1 in 4 Salem residents, not surprisingly both Griggs and Hoy touted their ability to work with them. Nothing to debate here.

Since there was so much agreement between Hoy and Griggs, each must have decided that they didn't want to appear aggressive toward the other candidate. But the downside of this strategy is that voters were left with few reasons to prefer one candidate over the other.

Which means I have to fill that void.

I'm a strong supporter of Chris Hoy. With Hoy, I'm confident that what you see is what you get. He's a moderate progressive, which describes me also. Hoy strikes me as being relatively low on the political scheming scale.

(All politicians are schemers to some extent, as are all human beings, really -- including toddlers, something I remember well from my child-rearing days.)

Chane Griggs, on the other hand, strikes me as a moderate conservative who has a high probability of tilting decidedly rightward if she were to be elected Mayor, which I hope doesn't happen. Clearly she's smart, polished, and adept at saying the right things to stand a chance of becoming Mayor of a liberal-leaning city.

However, she's the candidate of the Powers That Be in Salem. Chamber of Commerce. Realtors. Developers. Those who profit from unfettered development regardless of how it affects the livability and quality of life in Salem.

A friend who watched the City Club debate told me that Hoy is the "shovel ready" candidate. Meaning, he's had experience on the City Council and a temporary appointment to the state legislature. Hoy can start working to build a better Salem on his first day in office.

Griggs, though is much more of a question mark. Her answers today to City Club questions seemed more calculated than Hoy's. She appeared determined to look like a common sense conservative who shared most of the values of liberals.

Which I have difficulty believing. I suspect Griggs would do a "bait and switch" not long after she became Mayor, revealing that the moderate Chane Griggs on display at today's City Club debate actually was a mask hiding a Chane Griggs who is considerably more right-wing.

Cindy Condon, City Club moderator (top left), Chane Griggs (top right), Chris Hoy (bottom)

 

Hollie Oakes-Miller suspends her campaign for Mayor of Salem

This afternoon I got an email from Hollie Oakes-Miller.

Family, Friends, and Comrades,

I am sad to announce that we are suspending the campaign for Mayor of Salem and I will be taking some time to rest, reflect, and refocus.

I am deeply grateful for all of your support through this campaign!! Thank you!  

~Hollie  

I'm not sure if "suspending" means Oakes-Miller is withdrawing from the Mayor race, or if she's just taking a break from campaigning.

UPDATE: Just got this message from someone who's usually knowledgeable about local political happenings. 

"Just FYI, I have it on good authority that Hollie came up three signatures short of turning in the required number of valid signatures and failed to make the ballot for that reason. She will not be on the ballot."

Regardless, she had a Facebook page, a web site, and a pleasingly oak'y campaign image.

Today some friends and I were discussing how the race for Mayor might turn out with three candidates: Chane Griggs, Chris Hoy, and Hollie Oakes-Miller.

I theorized that Oakes-Miller, a founding member of Salem Democratic Socialists of America, likely would get around 10-15% of the vote, though this would have been hard to predict, since "democratic socialist" is really appealing to younger voters and quite a few others, while a danger sign to older voters and those wary of far-left politics.

A Mayor candidate would need to get 50% of the vote in the May primary, plus at least one more vote, to avoid a runoff in the November election. Assuming 10-15% for Oakes-Miller, that would have meant that if Griggs or Hoy got 50%, the other would get 35-40% of the vote.

Possible, but sort of unlikely given that Griggs and Hoy are both strong candidates. Griggs, because she's the Salem Establishment/Chamber of Commerce candidate; Hoy, because he's served on the City Council and has a law enforcement background. 

However, if Oakes-Miller has dropped out of the Mayor race, this makes it virtually certain that either Griggs or Hoy will get over 50% of the May primary vote -- assuming Oakes-Miller doesn't remain on the ballot.

If she merely fails to campaign, yet remains a candidate, I suspect she'd still get 10-15% of the vote, requiring a runoff between Griggs and Hoy.

By the way, to burnish my Democratic Socialist credentials, I supported Hollie Oakes-Miller in her 2020 Ward 5 City Council race against Jose Gonzales, a conservative candidate. Oakes-Miller lost narrowly, despite being outspent by a lot.

I'm confident that if Progressive Salem and the progressives on the City Council had given Oakes-Miller some backing, she would have beaten Gonzales. Instead, they either sat this race out, or supported Gonzales -- for reasons that still escape me.

Chris Hoy wants to be Salem's mayor. Here's how he became a city councilor.

Today KMUZ broke the news that Ward 6 city councilor Chris Hoy will run for Salem Mayor next year. His announcement is at the end of the 20-minute interview.

Hoy joins two women who have already announced their candidacy: Chane Griggs, who appears to be to the right of Hoy politically, and Hollie Oakes-Miller, who definitely is to the left of Hoy politically. 

So Hoy occupies a sort of Goldilocks sweet spot in the mayor's race. He'll be criticized by some as being too conservative and by others as being too liberal. Which isn't a bad place to be in, given Salem's moderately leftward tilt.

(Salem went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.)

Since quite a few people have moved to Salem after Hoy became a city councilor in 2017, I thought it'd be good to recap how this happened. Plus, many voters don't pay much attention to local politics, including, sadly, this blog.

Daniel Benjamin held the Ward 6 city council seat until he resigned in November 2016 following his Facebook sharing of a video showing Black Lives Matter protesters being rammed by cars. That led to an amazing city council meeting in Loucks Auditorium where two hours of public testimony, including three minutes from me, called for an end to racism and bigotry.

A special election to fill Benjamin's seat was held in March 2017. It attracted a lot of interest, since at the time there were only four progressives on the city council. If a progressive won in the special election, that would give them a majority on the nine-member body. 

Which was a big deal, since the city council conservatives were determined to keep the Salem River Crossing project, a.k.a. Third Bridge, alive in the face of considerable community opposition. 

Hoy won easily in a four-person race, getting 56% of the vote in early results, as I wrote about in "How will Chris Hoy's victory affect the Salem City Council?"

It was a happy night for Salem progressives yesterday. Chris Hoy won the special election for the Ward 6 City Council seat left vacant by Daniel Benjamin's resignation last year.

Hoy's large margin of victory over the other candidates -- including Greggery Peterson, the "establishment" pick endorsed by current Mayor Chuck Bennett and previous Mayor Anna Peterson -- was aided by the enthusiastic support of volunteers from Progressive Salem, who put in a lot of time canvassing for Hoy.

Hoy then ran unopposed for a full four-year term in the May 2018 primary election, not surprisingly getting 100% of the 1,469 ballots case in the race -- not counting 15 write-in votes.

In the KMUZ interview, Hoy was asked if he had any ideas about who would be running to succeed him as the Ward 6 city councilor. He said that he'd heard of several people who are thinking of running and there should be some great candidates for the position. 

Hoy also noted that while the interview was his first public announcement that he was running for mayor, this was "the worst kept secret in Salem." Which explains why people already were vying to fill Hoy's seat prior to his announcement. 

The Salem Reporter has a story about Hoy entering the mayor's race.