Election day was really depressing for me. While I knew that the race between Harris and Trump was a toss-up, I expected that Harris would pull out a victory. Heck, maybe even a fairly easy one. At the least, I thought the election would come down to narrow margins in a few swing states.
So when it became evident that Trump was the victor before I went to bed around midnight out here in Oregon, my sleep was fitful. I couldn't stop thinking about the disasters that await our country and the world with another four years of Trump in the White House.
But with the passage of a few days, my mood has markedly improved. Here's what gives me hope after Harris' disappointing loss.
(1) Let's start with the magnitude of the loss. Nationally, in the 43 non-swing states plus the District of Columbia, Trump gained about 6.7 points from his 2020 performance. However, in the seven swing states, Trump only gained about 3.1 points. So seemingly in the states focused on by the Harris campaign, Harris managed to cut Trump's 2024 over-performance by almost half of what he enjoyed elsewhere.
(2) So what happened on November 5 wasn't the overwhelming mandate from voters Trump is claiming. It was a fairly typical win for a candidate challenging a member of an unpopular president's party. This isn't the beginning of a never-ending upswing for Republicans. The United States frequently bounces back and forth between presidents with a D or R after their name.
(3) While Republicans will control the presidency and Senate, the House is still up for grabs. However the uncalled House races turn out, likely the balance of power will be just a few seats, as it is now. If Republicans control the House, probably they will continue to find passing major legislation to be difficult. This will be a check on Trump even if Johnson remains the Speaker of the House.
(4) If the Republican Party ends up with unified control -- President, Senate, House -- they will unequivocally own what happens to our country and our foreign policy. Given the wacko proposals put forward by Trump, such as deporting 20 million undocumented immigrants and putting a 20% or larger tariff (which amounts to a sales tax) on all imported goods, Americans are going to blame the Trump administration for all kinds of nasty problems that will arise in the next four years.
(5) This assumes that Trump will go down the crazier of two paths, the other being a more moderate presidency. If that restrained version of Trumpism comes to be, this will both be good for the United States and good for Trump (and the Republican Party). But I'm betting that the crazy path comes to be, because that's how Trump rolls.
(6) Sure, 2028 seems far away. That's when our country definitely will be done with Trump as president. So I focus on 2026, the midterms that are a bit under two years away. It seems very likely that Trump's extreme actions will turn off a large share of the American electorate by that time. He believes that his victory over Harris proved that a majority of voters have gone full-on MAGA. Actually, all it proved is that the vice-president to an unpopular president failed to beat an opponent who was saddled with all that people didn't like about the Biden years. In 2026 Trump will learn that now he's the unpopular president.
(7) The party out of power almost always does well in midterm elections. Democrats will be favored to win a majority of House seats, assuming this doesn't happen in the 2024 general election. In the Senate, Republicans will be defending 20 seats and Democrats 13 seats. So the Democratic Party has a good chance of taking control of either the House or Senate, and conceivably both. That would make Trump's last two years in office considerably more difficult.
(8) Public opinion counts. Opponents of Trump already make up about half of the country. Our number probably will grow, not shrink. We have the ability to engage in massive demonstrations if Trump pursues some of his most far-out anti-democracy autocratic schemes. Politicians of both parties are acutely conscious of what's bothering the electorate. Republican officials will stick with Trump so long as they think he is an asset to their re-election chances. When he becomes a detriment, they will begin to desert him.
I realize that things seem politically dark right now. But this won't last. Sunrise follows a sunset. Republicans are gleeful now after Trump's victory. Soon they will discover what many of them already know: embracing Trump means being tied to his erratic authoritarian behavior. When he goes off the rails, the whole Republican Party train will follow.
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