Political scientist explains why Trump won at City Club talk

After a national election, I look forward to Ed Dover explaining the results at a Salem City Club presentation. Dover is a retired political science professor at Western Oregon University. Dover's talk last Friday was his 13th City Club appearance.

Dover began by saying that asking the right questions is key to understanding election results. Adapting the opening song from Hamilton, he said, how could a liar, conman, narcissist, sex with a porn star candidate become president for the second time?

Three factors: (1) Entrenched partisanship, (2) Retrospective voting, (3) Democratic constituencies. 

Entrenched partisanship. Other countries have more variation in their political parties. Sometimes there are 10-12 in a parliamentary system. They come and go, while our Republican and Democratic parties are very old, dating from the late 1700s and mid 1800s. This makes them highly entrenched.

Dover likened this to trench warfare in World War I. At the battle of Verdun, where 800,000 soldiers were killed, the most ground gained by the Germans was 200 yards.

In like fashion, the Democratic and Republican parties are almost equal in strength. Over the last four presidential elections, the Democratic candidates got 49% of the vote and the Republican candidates 48%. With 435 seats in the House of Representatives, it looks like the Democrats will gain 1-2 seats via the recent election. 

Not long ago, parties adapted to their state. In Oregon, at one time we had a Republican Governor, Tom McCall, and two Republican Senators, Bob Packwood and Mark Hatfield. They were more liberal than almost every GOP elected official today. 

Now the parties are national. Every statewide office is held by a Democrat, and the 2024 election gave Democrats a supermajority in both the state House and Senate. But only two seats switched parties in the 60-member House and 30-member Senate, one in the House and one in the Senate.

In the Northwest states (Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Montana), of 24 House seats, 22 stayed with the same party. Republicans picked up a seat in Alaska; Democrats picked up a seat in Oregon.

Nationally, Trump outpaced Harris in the popular vote by just 1.6%, which could be 1.5% after all the votes are counted. In Polk County, out of 16 precincts Harris won six, the same number won by the Democratic candidate since 2000. 

Retrospective voting. This occurs when voters don't look ahead, but to the past, in this case 2019-24. About 1/3 of voters said the economy was their most important issue. They were bothered by higher prices and higher interest rates on mortgages and other debt. 

Dover said that a president doesn't have control of the economy. However, a president is the face of the economy, and that hurt Harris. In 1976 gasoline went from 50 cents a gallon to $1 a gallon after OPEC restricted oil production. Prices for other goods adjusted accordingly. If Reagan had become president in 1976 rather than Carter, likely he wouldn't have been reelected. 

Harris suffered from inflation taking off in the post-covid period. People switched jobs. The United States had a worker shortage, so wages were increased. The average working person was more affected by inflation than the rich. Wealth inequality bothered voters.

Structural problems will continue during the Trump administration, but now Trump will be blamed for economic issues. Inflation may increase again, after a recent decline, if Trump imposes widespread tariffs, which are paid by the purchaser of imported goods, who will pass on the cost to consumers. 

Democratic constituencies. Trump got 2 1/2 million more votes than he did in 2020. Harris got 4 1/2 million fewer votes than Biden did. Why? Many Democrats didn't vote in 2024 after voting in 2020. But likely this isn't a permanent feature of presidential politics. 

In 1992 Democrats controlled the presidency and both the House and Senate. Then in 1994 Democrats didn't vote. In 2000 many Democrats voted for Ralph Nader. If Gore had gotten 1% of the 100,000 votes cast for Nader in Florida, Gore would have become president rather than George W. Bush. In 2008 Obama won the presidency, and Democrats won the House and Senate. In 2010 Democrats lost control of Congress. In 2016 Clinton got money from Wall Street, and 20% of Sanders supporters didn't vote in the general election. 

These days a victorious political party only has 18 months to deal with problems of the past fifty years. Dover said that we may be in an era of one-term presidents. 

During the question and answer period, Dover said:

-- The effect of Biden not campaigning for Harris wasn't evident.
-- Third parties had a minimal effect in 2024.
-- Ranked choice voting failed in Oregon because the pro ads weren't effective.
-- We're #88! Since 87 other countries have elected a woman leader before the U.S.
-- The Wyoming GOP, which heavily controls the state, is the most bitterly divided.
-- Democratic lack of turnout made the difference in the swing states. 
-- In 2028 the Democrats will nominate a similar person, but the economy will work for them next time.

Comments

[sant64]

All of the above is just excuse making by people deeeeeeeeeep in denial.

The fact is that Trump won not just the electoral college, but the popular vote. And not only that. Trump's message won the Senate, and also the House. In other words, this election was a complete victory for Trump and the Republicans.

This can only mean one thing democrats -- AMERICA DOESN'T WANT WHAT YOU ARE SELLING. T h a t
is the reason you LOST.

You peddled social Marxism, socialist wage controls, taking over the Supreme Court, keeping the borders open, putting men in girl's bathrooms, blaming the inflation YOU caused on corporations, DEI and its endless resentment over race, higher taxes, feckless foreign policy, lawfare, obesity, suicidal kids, vote buying, ad nauseam.

AMERICA SAW THIS WAS A BUNCH OF CRAP. That's why you lost. It had nothing to do with cycles and (for fuck's sake) misogyny.

Please ignore all this, as I'm sure you will, and keep peddling the same woke merch the next election.

You lost because you had nothing to offer, America recognized it, and voted accordingly.