Counted out. Left for dead. Momentum gone. Future looking bleak.
That's how us Democrats felt after Biden's disastrous debate with Trump, which combined with Biden's poor poll numbers, made the prospect of a Democratic presidential victory this November seem exceedingly unlikely.
That's also how us Oregon State fans felt after ten teams in the Pac-12 bolted for greener financial pastures in other conferences, leaving Oregon State and Washington State as the two ugly sports ducklings that nobody wanted.
But, wow, how times have changed.
Today Kamala Harris is narrowly ahead of Donald Trump in the prediction models that I follow, having inherited the Democratic nomination following Biden's withdrawal from the race, and the conference that I've been calling the Pac-2 has added five additional members to what now legitimately deserves the Pac-12 name.
(The number doesn't mean much these days. The Big 10 has 18 schools.)
The Pac-12 comeback is an important sports story, but I'm writing about it on this blog because it also reeks of political intrigue.
Things looked bleak for Oregon State and Washington State when the ten departing members of the Pac-12 basically said to them, "Nice knowing you, but screw you; we want more TV rights revenue, so we're willing to trash the Pac-12 for a bigger paycheck from ESPN, Fox, or whoever."
But the two remaining schools with "state" in their name succeeded with a lawsuit that put them in control of the considerable amount of money in the Pac-12 coffers, leaving the departing schools with no say in how the conference was managed.
That left the large problem of how to schedule the 2024 football season, and succeeding years in all sports, with just two schools in the conference. Oregon State and Washington State made good progress on that front, leaving the biggest problem of all: whether to try to reconstitute the Pac-12, or call it a day and look for a conference willing to take OSU and WSU.
It wasn't clear what would happen. Until it was.
A few days ago the Pac-12 announced that four schools from the Mountain West Conference (MWC) would be joining the Pac-12: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Fresno State. That brought the number of schools in the conference up to six, just two away from the eight needed to be a functioning conference by 2026 under NCAA rules.
Then Utah State, another Mountain West Conference member, announced that it too would be joining the Pac-12, bringing the number of schools to seven. The Pac-12 needs to get to eight, and maybe ideally to nine, putting a spotlight on the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV).
A Yahoo Sports story today is a fascinating read for those, like me, who enjoy comebacks with a healthy dose of hard-nosed politicking. Here's some excerpts from "Is MWC dissolution coming? UNLV now holds keys to future in fight between Pac-12 and Mountain West."
In a matter of hours on Monday, during one of the wildest days in college sports realignment history, the Mountain West went from surviving with its eight football members together in a binding agreement to now on the brink of complete dissolution.
The Pac-12’s rebuilding effort could, ultimately, result in the destruction of its sister conference if UNLV accepts its offer to join. Such a move could trigger a domino effect that may lead to the Mountain West dissolving itself, presumably including the elimination of exit fees and other penalties for those members departing the conference.
Sources with knowledge of the Mountain West policies spoke to Yahoo Sports about the possibility, of which many officials in the MWC and Pac-12 are aware of.
As Tuesday arrives, attention is on a decision from UNLV, a school thrust into the heart of this realignment madness — the potential linchpin in a fight between the Pac-12 and Mountain West.
UNLV’s decision looms as significant for more than one reason.
The Rebels, for one, would be the new Pac-12’s eighth commitment, the number that the league needs to meet NCAA and CFP minimum requirements. They would join Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Fresno State and Utah State in what is a conglomeration of the top half of the old Mountain West and the bottom of the old Pac-12.
...The first hurdle is a decision from UNLV, which, in many respects, controls the future of the Mountain West and expansion decisions of the Pac-12.
Late in the day Monday, the Rebels expressed their commitment to the Mountain West, agreeing to terms that bound all remaining eight universities and secured the league’s future. However, the agreement required the support of eight members to be a legally binding document (a reminder: the FBS minimum is eight football-playing members).
In a stunning revelation, the Mountain West Conference office received signed agreements from seven of the eight schools, including UNLV, according to those familiar with the matter.
“Utah State was waiting for UNLV to sign before signing,” said a Mountain West official. “When UNLV signed, Utah State did not.”
Utah State’s decision to leave the conference effectively voids the deal without an eighth member school. Any expansion intended for the Mountain West to rebuild to eight members would likely necessitate a new agreement.
All this intrigue is interesting for those of us happy that the Pac-12 has gone from two schools to seven in such a short time.
But I feel for fans of the Mountain West Conference who are watching their conference disintegrate just as the Pac-12 did not long ago. Not enough to hope UNLV doesn't join the Pac-12, just enough to hope the MWC survives in some form.
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