What a difference a debate makes. Prior to June 27, 2024 I was an optimistic Democrat, looking forward to watching President Biden kick Trump's lying ass face-to-face.
After the debate, along with many millions of other members of my party, I was deeply disturbed by the inescapable reality that Biden not only didn't do any ass-kicking, he appeared befuddled during much of the debate and at times couldn't express a coherent thought.
Some three weeks later, my mood hasn't improved. If anything, I'm even more depressed now. Politically, not clinically, thankfully. (I've experienced actual depression; it's way beyond what I'm feeling now, though that's bad enough.)
The basic reason is that soon after the debate, there was such an uproar among Democrats about Biden's extremely bad performance, I held out hope that this would spur Biden to recognize that his already slim chance of defeating Trump now was considerably slimmer, and he needed to withdraw from the race to avoid a catastrophic loss to a man who absolutely must never become president again.
That was wishful thinking. For it's now looking increasingly certain that Biden is digging in his heels in a reality-defying display of incompetence, egotism, and a disinclination to do what's best for the country.
I'll list some of my reasons for despair. Hey, maybe this blog post will find its way to a political therapist of sorts, someone who can refute those reasons with such impressive logic and facts, I'll be persuaded to break out of my depression and become an optimistic Democrat again.
Well, I can dream.
(1) At the moment Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" gives Biden a 30% chance of winning. The Economist gives him a 22% chance (it was 29% the day of the debate). FiveThirtyEight has the race as about a toss-up, slightly favoring Biden (but the analysis relies in part on economic data that was a good predictor in the past, but seems not so good now).
(2) Biden's approval rating is at 39%. No president has been re-elected with such a low rating.
(3) Rep. Adam Schiff, who I respect a lot, is reported to have said this, according to a New York Times story today, "Biden Circle Shrinks as Democrats Fear Election Wipeout."
Representative Adam B. Schiff, the California Democrat who is running for Senate, warned during a private meeting with donorson Saturday that his party was likely to suffer overwhelming losses in November if Mr. Biden stayed in the race, according to two people with direct knowledge of Mr. Schiff’s remarks at the meeting.
“I think if he is our nominee, I think we lose,” Mr. Schiff said at a fund-raiser in New York, according to a person with access to a transcription of a recording of the event. “And we may very, very well lose the Senate and lose our chance to take back the House.”
(4) The New York Times story cites polls showing Biden trailing in most or all of the battleground states.
(5) A Vox story today, "Democrats shouldn't use Trump's shooting as an excuse to stick with Biden," starts off with:
Many congressional Democrats believe their party is hurtling toward a cliff’s edge and shouldn’t even bother trying to turn around.
Late last week, Senate Democrats held a private meeting to discuss Joe Biden’s electoral viability in the wake of his disastrous debate performance and subsequent revelations of his apparent cognitive decline. According to Politico, no more than four of the caucus’s 50 Democrats said they were committed to sticking with Biden as their party’s nominee.
By many accounts, a large majority of Democrats on the Hill believe that Biden has little hope of defeating Donald Trump and that a different candidate would have a better chance. The Capitol Hill reporters Heather Caygle and Jake Sherman claim that they haven’t spoken to a single congressional Democrat “who privately says they think Biden is capable of running and beating Trump at this point.” Unnamed “senior Democrats” have told Politico they’re convinced the president will lose the election.
(6) Nonetheless, in an interview yesterday with Lester Holt, Biden said that he doesn't believe the polls and, when asked who he relies on to give him advice about whether he should stay in the race, said "Me." The White House clearly has a bunker mentality: ignore reality and hope nobody will notice that the emperor (in this case the president) has no clothes, politically-speaking.
(7) Biden keeps talking about how 15 million people voted for him in the Democratic primary, and he has to respect their decision. Well, I was one of those people. There wasn't a genuine primary. I voted for Biden because the only other option was Marianne Williamson, if I recall correctly. And many Democrats voted for "none of the above" in a protest vote against Biden running again. Today polls show that most Democrats want Biden to withdraw from the race, feeling he is too old to run again.
(8) A Washington post story, "Biden allies worry he is not getting complete information about race," shows that his inner circle isn't being honest with him.
Democratic lawmakers and strategists inside the effort to reelect President Biden have grown concerned in recent days that he is listening to a small number of aides who are limiting the data he receives.
....The calls for broader advice come as Democratic lawmakers are raising new doubts about what Biden has been told about his support, after a Zoom call Saturday when Biden argued without evidence that he was leading in national polls outside the typical margin of error. An eight-minute portion of a roughly 45-minute video of the call with the New Democrat Coalition was given to The Washington Post by a Democrat.
So, yeah, I'm depressed. Biden is sinking farther behind Trump, with no prospect of a turnaround. Biden isn't in touch with political reality, choosing to listen to a small number of advisors who aren't telling him the truth about how badly he's doing.
And the Democratic National Committee wants to have Biden nominated electronically this month, not at the Democratic convention, in order to forestall further efforts to have him withdraw. So much for Biden's vow "challenge me at the convention." This is another sign of weakness.
Democratic bosses are moving to kill off efforts to force Joe Biden from the party’s presidential ticket by rushing ahead with plans to formalise his candidacy before next month’s convention in Chicago.
The move comes while the rebellion triggered by last month’s debate fiasco – which prompted multiple calls from within the party for Biden to be replacedas the candidate – has stalled following Saturday’s failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
The Democratic National Committee is seeking to exploit the impasse by pushing ahead with a plan that would secure the president’s nomination by arranging for convention delegates to vote electronically in a week-long roll call starting in late July, Axios reported.
If a majority of the 4,000 delegates back Biden, it will make his candidacy technically unchallengeable when the convention starts on 19 August.
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