What a difference a day makes when it comes to presidential politics. I woke up on Sunday, yesterday, feeling fine about my personal life and crappy about the prospect of Biden refusing to withdraw from the presidential contest, thereby likely guaranteeing a Trump victory this November.
Then, later in the morning, I checked my phone and saw that Biden had withdrawn. At first I couldn't believe it. Maybe it was a sick joke? But a bit more scrolling on X revealed that yes, it was true. I raced to find my wife and tell her the good news. We both became happier Democrats instantly.
More good news followed. Biden, not surprisingly, was endorsing Vice-President Kamala Harris to replace him at the top of the ticket. As I'd told a discussion group of eleven fellow Democrats on Saturday, it seemed to me that Harris was the best choice to take on Trump if Biden withdrew.
Washington Post opinion writer Jennifer Rubin summed up the new mood among Democrats perfectly and succinctly.
Today I saw Kamala Harris speak at the Harris (formerly Biden) campaign headquarters in Delaware. After her husband introduced her and Harris walked to the podium, I was moved almost to tears by her opening remarks.
It wasn't what she was saying, which was fine. It was the fact that here was the 2o24 Democratic presidential nominee, almost certainly, who I was truly enthusiastic about. It just felt so good to not be thinking about Biden, "Joe, you've done some great things, but you're too old and too down in the polls to have a decent chance of beating Trump. It's time for you to go."
Which he did, thankfully, showing that while I had my doubts about this, in the end Biden recognized reality and chose to put the country above his understandable desire to persist with his campaign against Trump, who Biden correctly understands is an existential threat to our democracy.
I can even forgive Biden for taking so long to decide that he should withdraw from the race, even though the need for this to happen has been evident for many months, and especially evident after Biden's horrendous debate performance in late June.
What seems to have happened is that Biden repeatedly proclaiming that he was going to stay in the race acted like the heavy weight on top of a pressure cooker (remember those? only if you're as old as me and Biden). That stifled the enthusiasm of Democrats across the country who desperately want to keep Trump out of the White House, but didn't see Biden as being capable of defeating Trump.
Now that Harris is the presidential candidate -- she already has commitments from enough delegates to the Democratic National Convention to assure this happens -- the pent-up "steam" that until now didn't have any place to vent is on full display among Democrats. This power is coming at just the right time: a bit over 100 days to election day, enough time for Harris to make her case to voters.
The Harris fundraising is amazing. I was one of the first-time donors, since until now I had no interest in supporting Biden's presidential campaign.
Of course, the big question now is whether Harris can overcome the lead that Trump has both nationally and in most of the battleground states. An initial poll has some encouraging results.
Nate Silver has frozen his election forecast for Trump vs. Biden as of yesterday. Here's how it stood when Biden announced he was withdrawing. Trump had a 73% chance of winning, Biden 27%. In a week or so Silver said he will start up the forecast model again once enough Trump vs. Harris polls have been released. Hopefully it will begin to show Harris closing the gap with Trump.
This is Silver's final national polling average for Trump vs. Biden. Trump has a four point lead. Not good, since given the advantage the electoral college has for a Republican candidate, Silver says that a Democratic candidate has to have a 2-3 point lead nationally in order to have about a 64% chance of winning the presidency.
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