With the presidential debate looming tomorrow, the race currently is a toss-up

Suddenly the 2024 presidential race is seeming real. Well, make that much more real, because I've been fretting about the race for a long time. 

But tomorrow's debate between Biden and Trump marks the genuine kickoff of the campaign to lead our country. Until now, there just have been skirmishes between the major party candidates. The debate will be an all-out war. 

Being a Democrat, I worry a lot. 

Will Biden stumble and fall on his way to the podium? Will Biden make some faux pas that will lead undecided voters to decide that he's senile? Will Trump summon up the will power to actually act calm and presidential, which would be a smart thing for him to do? Will Trump rattle Biden with taunts when his mic is turned off, leaving watchers in the dark about what Trump is saying but getting into Biden's head?

To relieve my anxiety a bit, I just headed to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which has been my go-to place for election prognosticating over the years. As of today, the site shows a toss-up.Hey, I'll take a toss-up at this point, given that there's been so much talk about Trump leading in many of the battleground state polls. It'll be interesting to see how the 50-50 FiveThirtyEight forecast changes over the next few weeks, following the debate. 

Here's the FiveThirtyEight commentary.

With 133 days until Election Day, our forecast still sees the presidential race as a pure toss-up. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 501 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 496 of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 3 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.

Last week, Biden “pulled ahead” of Trump in our averages of national presidential election polls for the first time this cycle. I put “pulled ahead” in scare quotes because his margin topped out at just +0.3 percentage points — squarely within our model’s uncertainty interval for the state of public opinion today. The rising national tide has lifted Biden’s boat in Michigan and Wisconsin, too, though Trump still edges him out in Pennsylvania. Our model’s current estimate of the gap between the winning candidate’s margin nationally and in the Electoral College is currently D+1.4 points — meaning Biden needs to win the national popular vote by 1.4 points to be favored to win a majority of electoral votes.

On Thursday, June 27, CNN will host the first televised debate of the cycle between Biden and Trump. This will be the first big opportunity for the candidates to shake up the race; since 1976, in the two weeks after the first debate of the cycle, the margin between the two candidates in polls has changed by 2.4 percentage points on average, and up to 5 points in rare cases. But since Biden and Trump are known quantities, whether either candidate can really make a splash is doubtful. Check back over the next week to see how our model reacts to the first post-debate polls.

538's forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

—G. Elliott Morris

Comments

[Logan Lor]

I personally think both candidates are too old. I believe we should have an age limit on the cut off age for presidential candidates. I feel strongly that 70yrs old is the cut off age. Taking into account the US male's life expectancy is 76 and females 80. I don't believe either candidate is truthful. Trump acted like a little bully on the playground with others even though he is in his 70's. Biden on the other hand is riding on his name sake since he has been a national name for centuries. I would love to see Nikki Haley as the President. She is genuine and in expressed interest, and could empathize, sympathize give the direction of this nation. God bless America. Logan L.

[sant64]

That was some debate. Not a toss up now, is it?