While I won't be surprised if the controversial payroll tax is passed by Salem voters this November, since nothing in politics is absolutely certain, it appears more likely that it will be defeated. I'm guessing by a 60-40 margin or thereabouts.
I'm not aware of any publicly available polling on the payroll tax. But the Salem Reporter and Statesman Journal have each conducted unscientific surveys about how people feel about the tax, which would be levied on anyone who works in Salem even if they don't live here.
Each survey found the payroll tax to be unpopular. Here's an excerpt from the Salem Reporter story by Abbey McDonald which says that 29% of respondents supported the tax.
The survey garnered about 430 responses from city residents and workers, who also said they’re most concerned about proposed city cuts to police and fire.
...A majority of those who responded favored increasing public support for city services, with about 56% people supporting a tax increase through a levy or raising property taxes, the city’s proposed payroll tax or another increase to the operations fee charged on monthly utility bills. But just 29% said they’d support the payroll tax heading to voters in November.
About one in five suggested another form of tax or revenue, either in addition to or instead of those options. Many wrote they’d favor a tax on businesses, or a change to a payroll tax to make it more progressive by taxing wealthier earners more or having employers pay a portion.
The Statesman Journal survey had even worse news for backers of the tax. Just 17% of the respondents supported the tax. Here's an excerpt from the story by Whitney Woodworth.
Salem's proposal to tax workers in the city to pay for public safety and social services appears doomed.
An overwhelming majority of respondents to a Statesman Journal online poll about the payroll tax on the Nov. 7 ballot said they will vote against it. Public comment during council meetings and on social media has been similarly opposed to the tax.
Of the 150 surveys submitted to the Statesman Journal's unscientific poll, 124 people said they would oppose the tax. Twenty-six said they would vote in favor.
The Marion County Voter's Pamphlet has three arguments in favor of the tax, all from city councilors and the mayor, with five arguments in opposition to the tax from the Taxpayers Association of Oregon, Oregon Small Business Association, Marion Polk First PAC, and Defeat the Tax on Salem Workers.
The Salem Reporter is sponsoring a Town Hall discussion about the payroll tax at the Elsinore Theatre on October 11. A description of the tax will be presented, then two speakers will have fifteen minutes each to explain why they're for or against the tax. Audience questions then will be addressed by the speakers.
The Town Hall will start at 6 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 11, at the Elsinore Theatre in downtown Salem. Free tickets for admission for the 90-minute program are available online.
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