Election looking good for Democrats in Oregon and nation

There's still a lot more votes to be counted in the midterm election, but right now, as a Democrat, I'm feeling good about how my party has fared.

For sure this hasn't been a Red Wave election, as so many pundits predicted. At best, we're talking a Red Ripple. And when all is said and done, even that might be an overstatement. 

Here in Oregon, Democrat Tina Kotek is leading Republican Christine Drazan 46-45 in the Governor race, with unaffiliated Betsy Johnson at a mere 9%. Too close for comfort, but I suspect Kotek will come out on top when all the ballots are counted.

In the new 6th Congressional District that includes Salem, I'm thrilled to see Andrea Salinas (D) leading Mike Erickson (R) 50-48. In the 5th Congressional District, Lori Chavez-Deremer (R) is ahead of Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) 53-47. That's disappointing, but not all that surprising given the makeup of the district.

Deb Patterson (D) has a comfortable lead over Raquel Moore-Green (R) in the state Senate 10 race, 54-46, which is nice to see. Ditto with Tom Andersen (D) up by 55-45 over TJ Sullivan (R) in the state House 19 race.

Nationally, the New York Times is estimating a best guess that the Senate will end up 50-50, as it is now, with VP Kamala Harris providing a tiebreaker vote. At the moment the Times has a 75% chance that Republicans will take control of the House, but only with a 210-225 margin -- again, by no means a Red Wave.

Wonderful to see that John Fetterman (D) appears to have won a Senate seat in Pennsylvania. It's looking like the Georgia Senate race between Warnock (D) and Walker (R) will go to a runoff election in December, since neither candidate appears likely to get 50% of the vote. Hard to believe that this many Georgians would vote for Walker, who is horribly unqualified to be a senator.

Regarding Oregon's ballot measures, I'm surprised in a good way that Measure 114, the gun control measure, is narrowly ahead 51-49. I'm also happy that the measure to penalize lawmakers with 10 or more unexcused absences is well ahead, 68-32.

The Ward 4 Salem City Council race has Deanna Gwyn leading Dynee Medlock 51-48. And the City of Salem $300 million Community Improvement Bond has passed 65-35.

Comments

[Kyle E.]

and a view from the Republican side:

It is clear that the House of Representatives will soon be controlled by the Republicans.

This is the Joe Biden cadre’s worst nightmare. I say "cadre" because Biden is clearly a brain damaged puppet operated by others with an extreme agenda.. shutting down the U.S. oil industry for example.

Now, a GOP-controlled House will examine and publicize Hunter’s laptop.

Vote fraud issues across America will be exposed.

The hype of January 6 will dissipate as Americans see the real tragedy on our Border.

What is clear is that Americans want a different road than the Biden cadre and Nancy Pelosi’s road.
It will be a road of economic sanity, border security, a strong affirmation of Judeo-Christian (not necessarily religious) values, and a strong belief in America.

It will be a road that will not traffic in the woke policies of the left.

This road will not agree to carry a trans agenda in schools that harms children and threatens parental rights.

The same road will give no countenance to critical race theory to destroy the minds of our kids.

This road will give a red light to the left-wing inflationary policies killing our personal wealth.
It will be a road free of illegals pouring across our border.

It will be a road to prison for dangerous criminals instead of cashless bail.

[Appreciative Reader]

"The hype of January 6 "

Hype? A coup attempt is "hype"? A head of state inciting that coup attempt is "hype"?

All of the rest, including the Mexican border, regardless of whether any of it is right or wrong, are complete non sequiturs, as far as this.

The world over, right wing politics seems to do something to people's brains. Or it could be that people who're not quite right up there get drawn to right wing politics in the first place. Or some combination of the two.

Then again, people who literally believe in the fantastic Jesus supersitions, I suppose it is too much to even expect rational thought from such as the default. I suppose we ought, instead, to look at the glass half-full, and applaud the almost-human intelligence and rationality they exhibit when, for instance, they don't start drinking bleach in order to ward off virus-borne disease.

[Kyle E.]

Dear Appreciative,

Of course the Jan. 6 events were wrong and misguided, even delusional on the part of the participants. A foolish, stupid, desperate act. Whether Trump directly incited the participants is not clear, imo. Indirectly he may have incited them because of his rhetoric, but these people were ready to blow up anyway and these were a few hundred people, not 10's of millions of fanatical right wingers descending crazed upon the Capitol.

I am curious what you think it is about right wing politics that does something to people's brains. I mean it does not seem crazy to me that people on the right want a secure border, responsible govt. spending, safe streets, less regulation and government intrusion, less taxation, a strong military, schools that focus on the three R's instead of woke politics, retaining 2nd amendment rights. You may disagree about how to deal with these issues but what is crazy about the approach to these issues by right wingers?

I am not here to bait you or defeat you. I just want to understand.

[Appreciative Reader]

Hey, Kyle.

Appreciate your very balanced, temperate response. And, in context of that, I kind of regret the intemperance of mine! I guess I could have better made my point by clearly doing that, as I intend to do now, rather than resorting to sarcasm.

You’re right, none of those things --- wanting a secure border, responsible govt. spending, safe streets, less regulation and government intrusion, less taxation, a strong military, schools that focus on the three R's instead of woke politics, retaining 2nd amendment rights --- are indications of irrationality. One may agree with those objectives, or not; and even if one agrees with them broadly, one may agree with the means of going about them, or not; but that kind of disagreement is part of healthy democratic discourse. But none of that is what I was talking about, in that comment of mine, as I’d made clear.

I see you leave out the less defensible portions of the right wing agenda, like the Talibanesque abortion thing; although of course, that isn’t something you’d brought up in your comment yourself, so one might argue that that’s off the agenda for discussion right now. But I do note that you left out something that you’d mentioned yourself, in your previous comment: which would be the Judeo-Christian thing. That’s delusional and irrational if you bring religion into it; and, while Church by itself is delusional and irrational but still personal, but mixing Church and State is bigoted; and even if you somehow try to finesse your way into arguing that you’re bringing in the Judeo Christian but leaving Christ out in the cold ---- very very dicey position to argue, that, but even granting you that very iffy position ---- at the very least it is completely exclusionary, the very opposite of inclusive. But beyond pointing out that you’d left that bit of it out, no doubt because it is far less easy to attempt to defend than those other things you’d mentioned, I’ll not argue further about this; because again, that also isn’t what I was talking about, at all, as I’d made clear.

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What I’d pointed out as irrational --- or, if not irrational, then it has to be deliberately dishonest --- is how right wingers try to brush off the Jan 6 thing. One has seen that sort of spurious argumentation so many times that it’s long gotten old.

Take your own earlier comment. You’d tried to brush away that enormity with whataboutisms. As I’d clearly pointed out, none of those other things you’d spoken of bear on it, at all, as you’d implied they do. This, in short, is the answer to your question: this is what I’d found irrational, and had clearly pointed out as such.

Coming to your subsequent comment: Again, I appreciate your condemnation of what had happened, absolutely. That’s better than the line I’ve seen some take! Although I have to say, you take the thing far too lightly. A coup attempt is a coup attempt. That the whole thing was stupid and incompetent does not in any way take away from the enormity of it all; because if you’ll handle this bumbling with kid gloves, why then they’ll come back next time and do it better, is all that will happen. You don’t let a would-be killer, who’s picked up a gun and tried to shoot a man dead, just because they’re cross-eyed morons and can’t shoot straight and so have missed their mark.

And despite your generally reasonable tone overall, Kyle, I find your exoneration of Trump in all of this unconscionable. The man clearly did drum up the beat to which those rubes marched, before he abandoned them. Whether he is legally culpable is for the Law to decide; but that he is morally culpable, I don’t see how there can be the shadow of a doubt about that. The man was desperate to hold on to power, any which way; and had these idiots actually numbered in the tens of thousands, and in any case had he been able to browbeat some people who unexpectedly showed some vestiges of spine and integrity, he’d very likely have clung on to power.

There’s many things that aren’t rational. The whole religion thing, to begin with? The offshoots of it, like the Taliban-like abortion thing, as well? But to limit this to what I’d actually clearly mentioned in my earlier comment, the irrationality lies in trying to resort to non sequiturs in order to somehow try to defend the completely indefensible.

Unlike many on the right, you seem a reasonable person, Kyle. Without getting into differences about the minutiae of your position, and mine --- because there’s no end to these, and in any case there’s no reason why we shouldn’t, cordially, agree to disagree about them --- but perhaps you can appreciate, and acknowledge, the (entirely inadvertent) irrationality (or, if not that, then the deliberate dishonesty) that clearly comes into play when people resort to such (the non sequiturs and whataboutisms and suchlike, and also the attempting to brush off that enormity simply on grounds of its incompetence and ineffectuality), as they often do?

[Kyle E.]

Appreciative wrote:

"I see you leave out the less defensible portions of the right wing agenda, like the Talibanesque abortion thing; although of course, that isn’t something you’d brought up in your comment yourself, so one might argue that that’s off the agenda for discussion right now. But I do note that you left out something that you’d mentioned yourself, in your previous comment: which would be the Judeo-Christian thing. That’s delusional and irrational if you bring religion into it; and, while Church by itself is delusional and irrational but still personal, but mixing Church and State is bigoted; and even if you somehow try to finesse your way into arguing that you’re bringing in the Judeo Christian but leaving Christ out in the cold ---- very very dicey position to argue, that, but even granting you that very iffy position ---- at the very least it is completely exclusionary, the very opposite of inclusive. But beyond pointing out that you’d left that bit of it out, no doubt because it is far less easy to attempt to defend than those other things you’d mentioned, I’ll not argue further about this; because again, that also isn’t what I was talking about, at all, as I’d made clear."

My response... Many Republicans, right wingers if you like, are not religious, myself included. To me Judeo- Christian values can be summed up by the Golden Rule "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you". I may be wrong or ignorant but that's all "Judeo Christian" values means to me. Religious beliefs have no place in public policy.

I don't like abortion (who does?) and I would like to see it avoided. But the issue of unwanted pregnancy is so complex that to legislate abortion out of existence is irrational, unfair, too strict. I prefer adoption or first trimester termination. When you have a baby sufficiently developed to survive outside of the mother then I think you have a human being. Women say "My body, my choice". But at this point there is another body involved. It is no longer just the mother's body. Here the issue becomes cloudy and complex. I have no answer except to say I'm sure most readers are glad their mothers didn't abort them. This is not a legal argument, but maybe an ethtical one. Mothers have their reasons, good or bad, to abort. So be it. Nothing will stop abortion no matter how difficult it is made to accomplish it, so I think there should be a safe place to go to get it done..caveat: Partial birth abortion is clearly murder. Third trimester abortion is also in most cases.

What I had to say about the Jan. 6 event is about all I can say about it. Coup attempts are troubling but only a few fanatics felt compelled to attempt it. This does not reflect on the 70 million or so voters who did not like or trust the election results but did not march on the Capitol to seize it. It appears most of them were not prepared to attempt a government take-over regardless of how they interpreted what Trump said.

I agree with you that Trump is a divisive character. Anything I say in his favor will be vehemently disagreed with here. I will say, in general, numbers and statistics were better under his administration in regard to crime, inflation, gas prices, illegal border crossings, stock market etc. I'm certain others can cite numbers unfavorable to Trump, but he certainly did better than the Biden administration is doing in the areas I mentioned.