Fascinating facts about contributions to Salem City Council candidates

As we approach the May 19, 2020 Oregon primary election, where each of the four Salem City Council races likely will be decided (candidate with more than 50% wins outright), I'm pleased to present a detailed look at the campaign finances of those races as of yesterday, April 15.

Salem City Council: Kaser, Andersen, Nanke, Leung, Mayor Bennett, Ausec, Hoy, Nordyke, Lewis

The images below, which I converted from a spreadsheet, come from a fellow political junkie who compiled the information from campaign finance reports on the state ORESTAR system. There's a lot to digest in the images. Here's some observations on each City Council race.

Ward 1: Jan Kailuweit vs. Virginia Stapleton This seat is held by Cara Kaser, who decided not to seek re-election after one term in office. Kaser is a progressive who is backing like-minded Virginia Stapleton.

So far, Stapleton has raised considerably more money than Kailuweit. Her largest contribution came from Kaser's committee. Kailuweit is supported by the Chamber of Commerce and the Homebuilder's PAC, plus other conservative groups. I couldn't find Citizens for a Livable Community on ORESTAR, but I suspect the money came from a similarly named group, Citizens for Livable Communities.

In 2016 Kailuweit lost by a large margin to Kaser. Since Ward 1 voters lean strongly progressive, likely Kailuweit will go down to defeat this time also. So I rate this race Strong Stapleton.

Ward 3: Brad Nanke vs. Trevor Phillips Nanke has been the Ward 3 councilor for almost 20 years. Last September Nanke said he wouldn't seek re-election, then he changed his mind shortly before the filing deadline. As I said in a March 10 post:

Trevor Phillips, Nanke's opponent in the Ward 3 race, shouldn't be shy about pointing out to voters that for six months Nanke showed no interest in running for another city council term. Then he did, under pressure. This doesn't show much commitment to representing the people who live in Ward 3. What it shows is commitment to whoever pressured him to run again.

We don't know who that was. However, Nanke works for the state and local home builders associations, and the Oregon Realtors Political Action Committee is his largest donor. 

Phillips is an Emergency Room doctor. With so much attention being paid to the coronavirus pandemic, that should give Phillips an extra edge with voters. And to date he has raised almost twice as much money as Nanke since October 1, 2019. Phillips is the largest contributor to his own campaign. With Nanke being the incumbent, albeit a semi-reluctant one, this probably will be a close and hard-fought race. I'm calling it a toss-up, with perhaps a slight edge to Phillips.

Ward 5: Jose Gonzales vs. Hollie Oakes-Miller. Matt Ausec, a progressive, decided not to run for re-election. For quite a while that seemed to give the seat to Gonzales, since no one else had filed to run. Then Oakes-Miller stepped up to be the progressive candidate. She teaches courses on climate change, and environmental science and resources at Portland Community College. Gonzales is a small business owner who has been endorsed by the Chamber of Commerce.

Gonzales has out-raised Oakes-Miller by about 10 to 1, which isn't all that surprising given her late entry into the race. Politically this is an intriguing match-up. Oakes-Miller touts her work with Salem Democratic Socialists of America, while Gonzales' answers to a Chamber questionnaire indicate that he is distinctly anti-tax. A debate between them would be entertaining, but I doubt this will happen face to face. Maybe a Zoom debate?

This is a liberal-leaning ward, though Gonzales has to be favored to win. So I rate this as Lean Gonzales. That said, these days political surprises are common, and I suspect Oakes-Miller holds positions that are closer to those held by most Ward 5 voters than Gonzales' positions. If she were to win, it would be akin to A.O.C. (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) staging an unexpected upset of a moderate Democrat Congressman in the 2018 New York primary election.

Ward 7: Reid Sund vs. Vanessa Nordyke Sund is the finance director for Salem Health. He got into the race early, so last November I opined that he was too right-wing for Ward 7, which leans leftward. But he's out-raised Nordyke by a considerable amount, with large $7,500 contributions from the local homebuilders association and the Oregon Realtors Political Action Committee.

Nordyke was appointed to fill the Ward 7 seat following the resignation of Sally Cook after her husband died unexpectedly. She's an attorney with the Oregon Department of Justice. Her progressive leaning is a better fit for Ward 7 and she has the advantage of incumbency. While Sund has gotten 51% of his contributions from business PACs, Nordyke has gotten nothing from them (but 9% from labor unions). 

I'm calling this race Strong Nordyke. She's an engaging speaker and campaigner, which will make her tough to beat.

Here's images of the campaign finance spreadsheets.

Comments

[Lora Meisner]

I really hope you're right about your predictions.......Brad Nanke is the worst of all of the candidates and he and Jim Lewis are awful city councilors. Wish Brad has retired............it's way, way, past his time.