Salem Political Snark

Freedom Celebration won't include Salem Police Department

KSLM's right-wing radio talk show host Jeff Kropf has been plugging a Freedom Celebration to be held this Sunday, January 31. I've heard that Trevor Womack, the Salem Police Department chief, won't be attending even though he was invited. 

UPDATE: I've heard that 400 people have registered for this event. Oregon's COVID rules for an Extreme Risk area (where this event will be held) say that a maximum of 50 people can attend an outdoor entertainment event. So it looks like the Freedom Celebration will be in violation of that rule. And it could be a super spreader event, given that most of the right-wingers who attend won't be wearing masks or practicing social distancing.

FURTHER UPDATE: A commenter reminded me that this event is to be held in an airplane hanger, so it is indoors. That means six is the maximum number of people who could attend under current Covid rules. I stand corrected. However, that rule seems a bit unfair if everyone is wearing masks, which admittedly almost certainly won't happen. Grocery stores can let in people to the extent of 50% of capacity, I believe it is, if everyone has a mask on. The problem is that most of those going to the Freedom Celebration wrongly think "freedom" means going maskless.

Wise decision, Chief Womack. 

While your officers are free to attend on their own time, it would have been a bad idea to give credibility to this event -- given that it was Biden-hating Republican extremists like Kropf who sowed the seed of the insurrection at the nation's Capitol that cost the lives of three police officers (one was murdered by the Trump rioters and two have committed suicide following the attack).

If you want to endure a You Tube video where Kropf speaks his mind at a January 1, 2021 rally at the state Capitol in opposition to Governor Brown's Covid "tyranny," here it is.

I watched enough of the video to learn that, among other things, Kropf is against wearing masks to fight the pandemic and that he believes a wacko accusation of Brown having ties to the Chinese Communist Party needs to be investigated.  

Someone sent me a recording of Kropf claiming on his radio show that the Salem Police Department would be attending the Freedom Celebration along with the National Guard, Marion County Sheriff's Office, and other groups. Hopefully none of them will show up in an official capacity.

Jeff Kropf obviously doesn't understand that freedom is defended by many others than the sorts of people invited to the Freedom Celebration: law enforcement, military, first responders. 

Trump's failed attempt to overthrown our democracy by having the results of the free and fair 2020 presidential election overturned shows that judges, election officials, Secretaries of State, advocates for voting rights, lawyers, journalists, and many others who don't carry a gun deserve to be praised at their own Freedom Celebration. 

Those people also have been "fighting the good fight for our freedom," as the Freedom Celebration puts it. But right-wingers like Kropf don't acknowledge this, which is why I'm a proud progressive.

We on the left side of the political spectrum have a much more expansive view of freedom than conservatives do these days, even though genuine conservatives also believe that democracy is protected by assuring that as many people are able to vote as possible, which means making it as easy to vote as possible.

Trump may never concede, but Biden has whipped his ass

Last Tuesday was tough for progressives like me.

Sure, I knew that mail-in ballots, largely from Democrats, were going to take a while to count, and in-person voting on election day would be dominated by Republicans. But knowing is one thing. Emotions are a whole other thing. 

I worried that somehow Trump would pull out another close victory like he did in 2016. Wednesday I felt better as Trump's lead in battleground states began to shrink. Thursday, even better. 

And today, Friday, I'm feeling damn fine! 

Now starts the fun part -- basking in the warm glow of Biden's almost certain victory, while shivering with delight at Trump becoming increasingly frantic to deny the truth of his loss.

It looks like Biden will get 306 electoral votes, the same number Trump got in 2016 that he's been bragging about as a massive victory ever since. Probably Biden won't rub that fact in Trump's face, but I sure will.

You're a big fat loser, Donald. You've gotten your sorry ass kicked. You'll go down in history as a one-term president who was impeached, had very low approval ratings, and will be known as the worst president in modern times. Maybe in all times.

It's going to be ever so satisfying to watch Trump flail around in the coming days and weeks, desperately trying to con his way into a victory that was denied him by rough, tough, kick-ass Joe Biden. Trump is acting like the cowardly wimp that he is.

His insults, lying, and bravado thinly disguise his deep insecurity and lack of confidence. Trump has surrounded himself with fawning admirers who don't question his incompetence, lack of morality, and inability to act like a normal human being.

Trump always has been able to cheat, lie, or buy his way out of problems. It's hugely delicious to now see him confronted by the undeniable reality of a massive election defeat. Votes can't be bull-shitted away.

They are what they are, the expression of how badly Americans wanted to see Trump drummed out of the White House.

Trump is going to lose two red states, Arizona and Georgia, that helped propel him to victory in 2016. And the Blue Wall of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is back up again, much stronger and more impressive than Trump's mythical "Mexico is going to pay for it" wall.

It's fitting that Trump began his failed presidency with a bizarre conspiracy theory -- that Barack Obama was born in Kenya -- and he's ending his failed presidency with an equally bizarre conspiracy theory -- that the election was stolen from him. 

I'm so looking forward to watching Trump's fragile ego disintegrate as day by day, week by week, the reality that he has lost the election big-time sinks into his feeble brain.

Fortunately, there's plenty of space in his mostly empty cranium for other facts to sink in: he faces serious legal problems without the protection of the presidency; his hotels and resorts are going to suffer under the weight of his unpopularity; nobody but his most rabid supporters is going to care about what he says or tweets about once Biden is inaugurated.

Here's some tweets I came across today that appealed to me.

Why I'm feeling post-election progressive joy

Tuesday's election could have been better, but it also could have been a whole lot worse from my progressive point of view. So I'm feeling fine right now, for these reasons.

Biden appears to have defeated Trump. This is the biggest contributor to my positive mood, since another four years of Trump would have thrown me into a serious depression. Last night I was anxious, but as I checked election results throughout today, I started feeling better and better.

At the moment it looks like Biden has a good chance of winning Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

Coupled with the states Biden already has won -- notably Wisconsin and Michigan -- this gives him numerous options to get to 270 electoral votes. So I'm counting my Biden-win chicken before it has completely hatched. 

Sure, right now it seems Biden won't have a Democratic Senate.

That sucks. It makes it a lot harder for Biden to push the legislative agenda he campaigned on. But simply having Biden rather than Trump as president is huge. (Note: at the end of this post I talk about the non-sucky possibility of the Democrats winning two Georgia Senate seats in January 2021.)

Winning the Senate would have been the icing on the election cake. Which means, there's still the cake to be enjoyed. (Assuming Biden wins.) Biden will be able to do a lot of good things even with Mitch McConnell and the Senate Republicans stonewalling him.

Here's a series of tweets by Daniel Hemel that illustrate this. 

A Biden presidency w/a narrow GOP majority in the Senate is not half a loaf. It's the loaf. I'd be happier if Ds had flipped the Senate -- to mix baked-goods metaphors, that would be icing on the cake. But this still will make an enormous difference in Americans' lives 1/

Probably the most important task facing the winner of this presidential election is SARS-CoV-2 vaccine rollout. This won't be easy under any President. But imagine doing it under a President who doesn't believe in science, downplays the virus, & stokes anti-vaxxer sentiment 2/

Instead we'll have vaccine rollout under a President who puts public health first, empowers scientists, & tells the truth. That's a world of difference 3/

The 2nd most important task facing the winner of the presidential election is saving the planet. Will Biden be able to get an ambitious clean-energy package through a GOP-majority Senate? We'll see, though if anyone can, he's the guy. & in any event, here's what he can do: 4/

-Reinstate & strengthen Obama administration corporate average fuel economy standards -Reinstate & strengthen Obama administration regs requiring power plants & other large stationary sources to reduce GHG emissions -Return the US to the Paris climate accords on Day 1 5/

We'll have a President who acts w/in the ACA to expand health care coverage. We'll have a President who works w/in the immigration statutes to make it easier to come to the US legally. Dreamers won't be deported. Refugee admissions will increase dramatically 6/

We probably won't get tax reform until 2023 at the earliest, but we'll likely get aggressive regulatory action against some of the worst loopholes & shelters. We'll likely see IRS focus audit resources on very high-net-worth folks rather than EITC claimants 7/

We've stalled since the end of the Obama administration re: motor vehicle safety standards. We'll now likely see National Highway Traffic Safety Administration rulemakings that reduce auto deaths by thousands 8/

A Biden administration -- even w/out control of the Senate -- won't just end the long national nightmare of the last 4 years. It will put us on a better path. This is cause for celebration. 9/9

Yeah, it sure is cause for celebration. That's why I want to keep our Biden-Harris sign up for the next four years.

Out here in rural south Salem some people in our neighborhood have had a giant Trump sign displayed since he was elected in 2016. It annoys me every time I pass it on my daily late afternoon dog walk. Time for some progressive payback.

Oregon election results also were pleasant. I was thrilled to see that Democrat Deb Patterson narrowly defeated Republican Denyc Boles in the Senate District 10 race. Patterson is competent, super-nice, and will be a terrific state senator. Boles deserved to lose, having walked off her legislative job with other Republicans after being appointed to Jackie Winters' seat after Winters died.

It also was great that all four statewide ballot measures passed, and that Shemia Fagan became Secretary of State, getting that office out of Republican hands.

I wasn't sure if Measure 109 would pass. "Magic mushrooms" show promise for treating PTSD and other mental health problems. Oregon is the first state to authorize the supervised use of psilocybin. 

We also are the first state to decriminalize the possession of small amounts of drugs, a step that hopefully will be taken by many other states. When it looked like Trump could be re-elected last night and I'd have to suffer through four more years of the Liar-in-Chief, I took some solace in the fact that if I became a heroin addict to soothe the pain, at least I wouldn't go to jail.

Now I'm looking forward to celebrating Biden's victory -- may it come soon -- with less potent, but decidedly healthier, home grown Oregon marijuana.

To end on another positive note, I just saw a tweet by someone who said it appears that both Senate races in Georgia will be going to a January runoff. Incumbent Republican David Perdue is down to a 50.2% winning percentage, with 5% of the vote from mostly liberal areas left to be counted. So if he dips below 50% Perdue would face off again against Democrat Jon Osssoff, joining Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler in another runoff race. 

If the Democrats won both races, that would produce a 50-50 split in the Senate, with Vice-President Harris breaking ties. Love that idea! It isn't all that far-fetched, since Biden and Trump are separated by just 0.6 of a percentage point in Georgia at the moment.

On election eve, thank you, local candidates

I've dusted off a blog post from May 2016. Changed the election day to what it is in 2020, November 3. Made it fit with a general election, rather than a primary election.

Otherwise, left it much the same, because what I said back then on election day eve is what I also want to say today, with the election tomorrow. Thank you, candidates. 

I offer a heartfelt Namas'cray to all of the local people running in races that will be decided in tomorrow's 2020 general election.

Thank you for being crazy enough to put in so much time, effort, and money seeking an office that requires a hell of a lot of work, often offers little pay, and puts you in the firing line for constant criticism. 

Some of you, I heartily disagree with politically. Some of you, we're political bed-fellows. Doesn't matter. I honor your craziness, your fine madness.

Politics really is a crazy sport.

I could have said "cruelest sport," because there's also that side to politics. Putting up with the craziness/cruelty is admirable on any level of elective office-seeking, but it really deserves accolades on a local and state level.

Like I said, often not much pay, long hours, lots of aggravation. 

Of course, just about everybody happily volunteers to do things that are somewhat similar. Such as, competing in various kinds of sports.

In many ways, politics is a sport. But here's why I consider running for political office is a super-crazy sport. 

The "season" is one game. In golf, tennis, basketball, football, or whatever, losing or winning is temporary. Almost always another game is coming up soon. Next time... we'll learn from this loss... coming up with a better game plan. In politics, though, it's two or four years before another chance. And maybe never. 

In Oregon, the "final score" pops up abruptly. I really feel for candidates on election night, November 3. Since we have vote by mail, ballots are tabulated quickly on election day. Often, if not usually, results are available online shortly after 8 pm that stand up. Meaning, the winner is known. It's akin to playing a game hard for months, but not knowing if you're winning or losing. Then, when you're exhausted, the final score pops up. In many other states, returns dribble in, so you have time to adjust to the outcome. In Oregon, it's pretty much Instant Joy or Sorrow.

Rules are loose. Trick plays abound. All sports have rules. So does politics. However, the political game is played pretty fast and loose. Even more so than in football, say, where arguably holding or pass interference could be called on almost every play, if the referees were sticklers. So feelings get hurt. Sort of like when a team goes for a touchdown in the last 30 seconds even though it is ahead 48-0. Hey, you're supposed to take a knee! But the rules allow it.

The stakes are large. So is disappointment. Candidates for political office, especially in local races, run because they care about their community. When they lose, it must feel like more than a personal loss. Wanting to do something positive for their fellow citizens, they've failed. (Well, the way I see it, actually they've won, no matter the outcome, because running for office is such a positive thing to do; but I'm sure it hurts a lot to come up short at the ballot box.)

There's more crazy aspects to the sport of politics, but I'll stop here. With a final thank-you to the candidates, and a hope for the political scene in Salem, Oregon, and the United States.

Let's remember that politics is a game, albeit a serious and important one. Both teams going out together after a game for beers, pizza, and some laughs is a big part of many amateur sports. There's no reason politics can't be somewhat the same. 

Fight. Battle. Scream. Yell. Push. Argue. Leave it all on the field. 

Then, when the match is over, do our best to remember that the Bigger Game is life itself -- way beyond politics. 

Trump is out to steal the election, but he will fail

Next week, I hope and expect, Donald Trump will become a one-term president.

Given how outrageously authoritarian Trump has been since he was inaugurated in January 2017, it's fitting -- though disturbing -- that currently he is trying to steal the election in a way that might work if he was the strongman of, say, Russia, but will fail big-time in our still democratic United States.

Trump's scheme is described in an Axios piece today, "Trump's plan to declare premature victory."

President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to three sources familiar with his private comments. That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

...Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.

...Many prognosticators say that on election night, Trump will likely appear ahead in Pennsylvania — though the state's final outcome could change substantially as mail-in ballots are counted over the following days.

Trump's team is preparing to claim baselessly that if that process changes the outcome in Pennsylvania from the picture on election night, then Democrats would have "stolen" the election.

...Reality check: Mail-in ballots counted after Election Day as set forth in state-by-state rules are as legitimate as in-person votes recorded on Nov. 3.

Well, duh, of course ballots counted after November 3 are as legitimate as ballots counted on election day. Even here in Oregon, where election officials can tally (but not report) ballots prior to the 8 pm election day deadline, changes to the election night count occur for several days afterward.

No other presidential candidate, I'm quite sure, ever has threatened to claim that they've won the election based on election night returns. That's so out of touch with reality, only someone with a shaky grasp of fundamental election facts would say that.

Or, a wanna-be dictator who has the fantasy that he can somehow steal the election by stopping the counting of ballots in one or more states just because he says, "I've won. Stop counting!" 

A Slate piece, "Trump Can't Just 'Declare Victory'" debunks this authoritarian fantasy.

While there has been some dispute about whether state courts such as Pennsylvania’s and Minnesota’s had authority to extend the deadline for receipt of mail ballots that arrive after Election Day (a practice allowed in a fair number of states), there has never been any basis to claim that a ballot arriving on time cannot be counted if officials cannot finish their count on election night.

Indeed, such a claim is preposterous because no state fully counts their ballots on election night. Returns are unofficial and always contain errors. Many states allow military ballots to arrive for days after Election Day. Counting generally continues for days and weeks after Election Day, and results are not certified until weeks after.

When it comes to the president, the presidential electors do not cast their official ballots until Dec. 14, and Congress does not count their votes until Jan. 6. This calendar leaves plenty of time to get the counting done.

That’s what makes the Trump campaign efforts to cast doubts on even the counting of ballots after Election Day, even of military ballots, so unprecedented.

A FiveThirtyEight podcast headline makes the same point in a mere 21 words.

CNN's Jake Tapper weights in on this via Twitter.

But Greg Sargent of the Washington Post delves deeper into what the Republican scheme appears to be. This seems like a decidedly weak legal strategy, but it makes more sense than Trump simply declaring that he has won and ballot counting needs to stop.

However, it's hard to see how a court could justify stopping the counting of legitimate ballots while a claim that illegitimate ballots have been cast is being investigated. Assuming there is any basis for an investigation, which probably there wouldn't be.

So I'd place the odds of Trump being able to steal the election at just 1% or so.

This would require a very close election in which a single state such as Pennsylvania determined whether Biden or Trump gets to 270 electoral votes. Then there would have to be a basis for challenging the results of that close election that would hold up in court. 

It's very unlikely, but not impossible, that both of those things will happen. That's why I'm looking forward to Joe Biden becoming the next President of the United States.

My not-so-surprising presidential election prediction

With six days to go, it seems like the right time for me to make a presidential election prediction.

Close enough to feel confident in the prediction, not so close as to be accused of waiting until the last moment when the pre-election cards have all been dealt face up.

But I'm going farther, into a prediction of not only what will happen, but how the post-election period will go -- with a bang or a whimper?

As a progressive, I understand why many in my political tribe are agonizing over all sorts of dire election possibilities. Some of this is a hangover from the 2016 trauma of expecting that Clinton would win, only to suffer the despair of Trump being elected by the narrowest of margins in a few mid-west states.

However, that was then, and this is now. 

I follow several pollsters on Twitter. Nate Silver. Harry Enten. Nate Cohn. They each have their own take on both polls and the state of the Biden-Trump race. But they agree on the basics.

Biden's lead has been steady. Nothing changed after the last debate. The divergence between national polling and state polling has narrowed to reflect Biden's lead both in the country as a whole and in the most competitive states (meaning, neither heavily blue or red).

So I'm convinced that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight current forecast is solid. Joe Biden has an 88% chance of beating Donald Trump.

Of course, Silver correctly points out that Trump's 11% chance of winning is a long way from zero. And it also is a long way from 88%. Thus Trump could win, but this is much less likely than Biden winning.

What about polling error? Silver says that this is as likely to be in Biden's favor as in Trump's favor.

Plus, even if the state polls were as far off as they were in 2016, this still leaves Biden in a strong position given how much better he is doing in swing states than Clinton was at the point in the election year.

I'm equally optimistic about what the post-election days and weeks will look like. 

Yes, Trump is talking trash about wanting the election over on November 3, hinting, if not outright saying, that no votes should be counted after election day. Which is so absurd, even a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court isn't going to go along with that argument.

Here in Oregon, a 100% vote by mail state, ballots have to be in by 8 pm on election day. Yet election results are updated for at least several days afterward, with the final certified vote taking weeks.

In Washington and California, ballots just have to be postmarked by election day. This is why California takes forever, more or less, to report final election results, with Washington also taking a long time. 

So there's no way Trump is going to succeed in his fantasy of stopping the presidential vote count at midnight on November 3, when he hopes to have a lead based on Republican in-person voting, since in mid-west swing states mail-in ballots can't begin to be counted until election day.

My bet is that the presidential election won't be close. Biden will win handily, and perhaps in a landslide. 

Thus I'm expecting that Trump will end up going out of office with a whimper, not a bang. Sure, he will fuss and fume about voter fraud, a rigged election, and such. That's what Trump does with everything -- lie habitually. 

I could be wrong, but I suspect that the post-election period will be calmer than many anxious Biden supporters expect it to be. I don't see the Supreme Court bending over backwards to hand Trump an undeserved election victory.

That would destroy the credibility of the court. It also would guarantee that Democrats enlarge the Supreme Court if they win the presidency and gain control of the Senate, as seems likely.

Trump lost tonight's debate because he is Trump

The real winner of tonight's Trump-Biden debate is everyone who's glad there's no more debates. Which definitely includes me. 

Sure, I enjoy debates. But I'm ready for the election. This debate marks the beginning of the home stretch toward November 3. I'm eager for that day to come, especially if, as I both suspect and hope, Biden defeats Trump.

Nothing I saw tonight changes my opinion about Biden being the clear favorite to become the next president. Currently FiveThirtyEight places the odds of this happening at 87%. 

It's hard to see how Trump's non-disastrous performance in this second debate, a step up from the Trump disaster of the first debate, changes the race in any meaningful way. Here's the FiveThirtyEight live blog headlines from various staffers. These nicely encapsulate the tenor of the evening.

I think that Biden won the debate for the same reason he won the previous debate. Trump can't stop being Trump. Of course, this is true of everyone. We are who we are.

But most of us have both the will and the ability to adjust how we come across to the needs of an occasion. For example, we might appear wild and crazy at a freewheeling party, yet calm and restrained in a job interview.

Trump, on the other hand, is incapable of appearing honest, coherent, empathetic, and caring. He simply lacks the capacity to rise above his habitual personality, which is decidedly unappealing to anyone who isn't a fervent Trump devotee. 

Naturally Trump lied almost constantly tonight. The New York Times fact-checked the debate. Trump got many more facts checked, probably because he gets facts wrong so often. Here's how Trump and Biden did on the NYT fact-checks. 

Trump
False - 15
Misleading - 13
Exaggerated - 3
Lacks evidence - 2
Partly true - 1
Mostly true - 1
True - 1

Biden
False - 1
True - 2

Well, damn! Out of 36 statements that were fact-checked, Trump got one that was true. Looks like the Liar-in-Chief needs to work harder.

The pandemic was the first debate topic. This also is the topic most on the minds of Americans, since it has been an ever-present backdrop to all of our lives for about eight months.

Once again, Trump wrongly claimed that the United States is turning the corner on COVID-19. Well, that's sort of true. As shown in this chart from today's Washington Post, covid cases have indeed turned the corner -- but in the wrong direction.

Biden was warmly welcoming. Trump was coldly corrosive.

It wasn't a mistake for ABC and NBC to hold town halls with Joe Biden and Donald Trump on the same night, at the same time.

I thought it would be, but thanks to my DVR, I was able to watch the hour with Trump, then the hour and a half with Biden. I appreciated the immediate stark contrast.

Once again, Biden was the clear winner of the debate that wasn't, yet in a a way, was. The most obvious way Biden won was that he made no glaring mistakes, whereas Trump did.

Supposedly Biden is the one who makes verbal gaffes, but tonight it was Trump who had many moments that were so atrocious, there's reason to wonder whether he even cares about winning the election -- just trying to steal it.

Savannah Guthrie, who moderated the NBC town hall, did a great job holding Trump's feet to the factual fire.

For the first twenty minutes or so she elicited responses from Trump that cast a lot of light on the B.S. that he gets away with when reporters aren't able to ask follow-up questions, which Guthrie was able to do.

Her most amazing feat was getting Trump to admit that maybe he had a negative test before the first debate, and maybe he didn't. Trump claimed that he couldn't remember whether he had a covid test on the day of the debate, as required by debate rules agreed to by both campaigns. So almost certainly Trump didn't have a test.

Over and over Trump exhibited his annoying inability to answer even the simplest question. Guthrie teed up what should have been a slam dunk response from Trump, to mix a couple of sporting metaphors.

Is QAnon a purveyor of baseless conspiracy theories? Obviously it is, since neither the deep state, nor leading Democrats, are operating a pedophile ring -- not out of the basement of a pizza parlor, not anywhere. 

But Trump whiffed his answer, claiming that he didn't know anything about QAnon. Nor did Trump have an answer about how he would provide health care to Americans if the Affordable Care Act is overturned by the Supreme Court, as the Trump administration is hoping will happen. 

Guthrie pointed out that Trump has had four years to come up with the great health care plan that is better than Obamacare and way cheaper, as Trump blathers on about at every opportunity. And once again Trump had nothing substantive to say.

His demeanor wasn't as nasty as at the first debate with Biden, but Trump didn't do himself any favors by being biting, insulting, and sarcastic in his interactions with Guthrie.

Sure seems like Trump has a big problem with assertive women. Since women favor Biden over Trump by more than thirty points, Trump blew another chance to look like a caring guy, rather than an arrogant asshole.

Biden, on the other hand, was appealingly boring.

Well, boring is a bit unfair, since Biden did have some crisp compelling answers to audience questions, notably what he said about the state of international relations after Trump has done his best to coddle dictators and offend our allies. 

Much of the time, though, I was silently pleading inside my head, "Joe, make a simple point, then shut up. You're going into way too much detail." However, this did show Biden's impressive capacity to offer up a comprehensive answer to any question, something Trump is utterly incapable of. 

When a woman with a transgender child asked about how Biden would restore the rights of transgender people that Trump has trashed, Biden looked down as the question was being asked with an impossible-to-fake expression of concern on his face. This also is something Trump is utterly incapable of -- being empathetic and caring to someone who is hurting.

Likely the headline of the Biden town hall will be his sort-of answer to a question from George Stephanopolous about Biden's stance on adding judges to the Supreme Court, a.k.a. court packing. After side-stepping the question, Biden finally promised to provide a clear answer before the election, after he sees how Republican's handle Amy Coney Barrett's Supreme Court nomination hearing.

And, gosh, Biden is OK with fracking so long as it is safe and used as a bridge to renewable energy and a carbon neutral United States. Biden acted like the moderate that he is, which is why he won the Democratic presidential nomination and is doing so well in the polls against Trump.

All in all, my progressive self felt really good about the dueling town halls.

Trump is the one who has to make up electoral ground, yet tonight he acted like the same old Trump. Uninformed, irritating, lying. So boring Biden won by being himself, a normal human being who wants to be president.

Danielle Bethell getting big bucks from anti-abortion groups

Here's some fun facts about Danielle Bethell, a Republican who is running against Democrat Ashley Carson Cottingham for a seat on the Marion County Board of Commissioners.

(1) Campaign finance reports show that to date, Bethell has gotten cash contributions of $7,500 from Oregon Right to Life and in-kind contributions of $57,263 from the Women's Leadership Coalition PAC -- which is a thinly-disguised arm of Oregon Right to Life.

(2) So far, in 2020 Friends of Danielle Bethell, her campaign finance organization, has gotten $151,939 in contributions. So the $64,763 Bethell has gotten from the two anti-abortion groups make up 43% of her total contributions. 

(3) At a Salem City Club meeting on October 9, Bethell and Cottingham were asked who the top three donors to their campaigns were. Bethell said Freres Lumber, Mountain West Investment, and Mid Valley Association of Realtors.

(4) What Bethell told the City Club audience, which included me, wasn't true.

She failed to mention Oregon Right to Life and the Women's Leadership Coalition PAC, both of which have given her much more than Freres Lumber ($12,500), Mountain West Investment ($5,000), and Mid Valley Association of Realtors ($0, yes, zero, according to the campaign finance reports I reviewed via ORESTAR).

Thus Danielle Bethell failed to inform the City Club audience that she has gotten $64,763 from anti-abortion groups, and so far as I can tell, fabricated a non-existent contribution from the Mid Valley Association of Realtors. 

Is this someone who should be on the Marion County Board of Commissioners? In my opinion, absolutely not. Which is why I urge you to vote for Ashley Carson Cottingham. (She correctly said that SEIU and other unions have been her major contributors.)

Daniielle Bethell (lower left) and Ashley Carson Cottingham (top right) at City Club ZOOM meeting

Now, maybe you're thinking that Bethell wasn't aware of the anti-abortion contributions because they came in shortly before the October 9 City Club meeting. Think again.

The three contributions from the Women's Leadership Coalition PAC that totaled $57,263 were received by her campaign on October 3 and October 5. The $5,000 Mountain West Investment contribution was received on October 6. 

Yet Bethell mentioned Mountain West Investment, but not the larger $7,500 that Oregon Right to Life contributed to her campaign on July 28 and September 15, nor the Women's Leadership Coalition PAC contribution that is by far the largest donation Bethell has received.

Seemingly a candidate would remember getting $57,263 less than a week before the City Club meeting. So why did Danielle Bethell fail to mention this?

My suspicion is that Bethell realizes that most people in Salem and Keizer favor a woman's right to choose whether to have an abortion. In my May 2019 blog post, "Oregon Right to Life behind deceptive Marty Heyen postcard," I shared this chart of how people in this area voted on a Measure that would have prohibited public funding of abortions.

Note that a No vote, in blue, implied support for a woman's right to choose, whereas a Yes vote, in red, implied anti-abortion support. Likely Bethell realizes that her opposition to abortion is out-of-step with a majority of Marion County voters, or at least a very large percentage of Marion County voters.

Don't be fooled if you get a mailer from the Women's Leadership Coalition PAC supporting Danielle Bethell. This is a front group for Oregon Right to Life. The two directors of the PAC work for Oregon Right to Life.

Danielle Bethell is a right-wing Republican who is trying to appear more moderate than she really is. Fortunately, the massive amount of money she's getting from anti-abortion groups is speaking the truth about who Bethell really is.

Vote for Cottingham. A Democrat should be on the Marion County Board of Commissioners to bring balance to the board, which currently is made up of three Republicans.

UPDATE: Wanted to add that at the City Club debate, Danielle Bethell said that she doesn't believe in universal health care, while Ashley Carson Cottingham said that she does. Another reason to vote for Cottingham, since Marion County provides health services to underserved populations.

What Twitter is saying about Trump's Covid illness

Here's 17 right-on tweets about Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization, including his attempt to do a Mussolini impression from a White House balcony after being released from the hospital. Sure, I could try to be as informed and witty as these people I follow on Twitter, but why try? Easier to simply share screenshots of their tweets. 

Why Deb Patterson deserves your vote, not Denyc Boles

Last Friday the Salem City Club had a debate via Zoom between Deb Patterson and Denyc Boles, who are running for the Senate District 10 seat in the Oregon legislature. A libertarian candidate also took part in the debate, but he has a virtually zero chance of winning.

I favored Deb Patterson, the Democrat, before the debate. After it, I favored Patterson even more, because I learned how bad Denyc Boles, the Republican, really is. I'll explain below.

Boles came across as a right-wing politician who is trying to look more moderate than she really is. That's a typical campaign ploy for Republicans in Oregon, especially in swing districts like Senate District 10. 

They talk middle of the road while trying to be elected. (Boles was appointed to her seat after Jackie Winters died, so this is her first election as a state senator.) Then they veer strongly rightward if they succeed in making it to the legislature. 

To her credit, Denyc Boles didn't try to hide the fact that she is strongly against a woman's right to choose to have an abortion. So this is one key issue that shows how extreme Boles is. Patterson defended a woman's right to choose.

What should disturb Democrats and non-affiliated voters just as much, if not more, is that Boles doesn't want Oregon to reduce the carbon pollution that is fueling global warming, and thus drying out our forests, creating conditions for highly destructive wildfires.

I got to ask Boles a question about this in the Q&A part of the debate. It was:

Senator Boles, you have received many thousands of dollars of campaign contributions from the fossil fuel and logging industries, including the Koch Brothers, Chevron, BP, Tesoro, and Weyerhaeuser. How did that influence your decision to participate in the Republican walk-out last February to prevent passage of important legislation to address the Climate Emergency which recently has destroyed entire communities in Oregon?

Boles responded that she didn't like the implication that her vote can be bought. But that wasn't really the point of my question.

It is difficult to prove that a politician acted a certain way because they got money from special interests. However, it is easy to show that a politician got money from special interests because they know how the politician will act.

Here's a table based on campaign finance reports filed by Denyc Boles that someone sent me.

I made a screenshot of contributions of $5,000 or more. The highlighted contributors have a special interest in defeating legislation that reduces carbon pollution in Oregon. Boles has gotten a lot of money from them, as she has from Oregon Right to Life and other right-wing special interests.
By contrast, Deb Patterson said that she is in favor of creating clean energy jobs in Oregon.

This year Denyc Boles walked out of a legislative session where bills to reduce wildfire risk in our state likely would have passed if the Republicans hadn't gone on a paid vacation to deny the quorum needed to do the people's business.

So if you live in Senate District 10, vote for Deb Patterson. Her web site contains information about Patterson's background (she's a minister) and positions on key issues.