Today my habitual Donald Trump depression lifted a bit when I watched Chuck Todd interview the Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas about who Moulitsas thought would be the best Democrat to run against Trump in 2020.
I agreed with Markos (his last name is too tough for me to spell repeatedly) that Bernie Sanders' time had come and gone, though he'd have a role to play in the next presidential election. They joked that Markos would pay for that assessment with a flurry of nasty comments on his web site from fanatic "Bernie bros."
Markos then rattled off the names of three women: Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Kirsten Gillibrand. He said that he favored Warren, who is my favorite pick also.
But later, I got to thinking about why I liked the idea of Warren running against Trump. I realized that in large part I was envisioning her standing next to Trump in a presidential debate, having to deal with Trump's insults, lies, and macho posturing.
When I talked with my wife, Laurel, about the Markos interview, she had an interesting reaction.
Laurel thought that our very own Oregon senator, Jeff Merkley, would be the best Democrat to run against Trump. She observed that, like it or not, our human brains have evolved to intuitively view strong large men as the best leaders, and this is a big hurdle for a woman to overcome.
I don't disagree with that. However, obviously there's more to what we could call "stage presence" that someone's sex and size.
Trump has a knack for commanding a stage because he's so outrageous, it's very difficult to turn away -- much like I never skip the "Caught on Tape" feature on the local evening news, because a semi-truck tipping over on a bridge in a fierce windstorm is just so damn watchable.
So that got me to wondering how each of the aforementioned possible Democratic candidates would look in their fiercest pose, going head to head with Donald Trump in a nationally televised debate.
After all, I'm pretty sure the policy differences between Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, and Merkley are slim. They're all solid progressives. Any of them would be hugely better for our country than Trump. What I mostly care about is which one would have the best chance of beating Trump.
And that relates to how they'd look on a stage, challenging Trump's lies and insults.
My research on this question, which just took me a whole seven minutes or so, showing that I'm a committed political commentator, consisted of scanning through the first page of Google Images results for the four Democrats, looking for the fiercest photograph.
Of course, I had to do the same thing for Trump, as painful as it was to look at the photos. Here's what I came up with for our (hopefully) one-term president.
I can't stand Trump. But I have to admit, he does have a talent for arousing strong emotions. His own emotional range is quite limited, since I've never seen him appear genuinely compassionate, for example, but he does well at expressing outrage and anger.
Any Democrat who goes up against him should be able to at least hold their own in this regard. I'm not saying they should try to outdo Trump in the outrage and anger department. But a calm, cool demeanor is going to come across as uncaring and lacking poweron a debate stage.
Here's the images I came up with for the four Democrats.
I've seen quite a few TV interviews of Warren. She comes across as intelligent, committed, informed, caring, and yes, strong. I can easily see her going toe-to-toe with Trump and giving him everything he could handle. She's got a quick wit and enough fire in her belly to win over voters, in my view.
l like Kirsten Gillibrand a lot. However, she doesn't have the same emotional punch as Warren does. She seems like a very nice woman, with great ideas, but I have a feeling Gillibrand would have a tougher time handling Trump. After Warren, she's my second choice, though.
I'm not very familiar with Kamala Harris. Browsing through the Google Images photos of her, I was struck by how she seemed to have a pretty standard unemotional look. However, this might be due to her being newer on the national stage than the other potential Democratic candidates. Regardless, Harris doesn't strike me as someone who could take on Trump successfully.
I was sort of surprised that the photos of Jeff Merkley were even blander than those of Kamala Harris. When Merkley talks, he says the right things, and he comes across as a caring, committed person. But visually, I worry that Merkley doesn't have the above-mentioned stage presence needed to make undecided voters think, "Oh, yeah! This guy excites me."
Now, I readily admit that what I've done here will strike some as astoundingly shallow. And I agree that we shouldn't select our next president on the basis of who comes across best on a stage.
As I noted, though, I doubt that the leading 2020 Democratic presidential candidates are going to differ much on key policy issues. And it's an annoying truth that many voters don't take the time and trouble to understand the positions of various candidates in much detail.
How the Democratic candidate is able to stand up to Trump will be key to making Trump a one-term president. Right now Elizabeth Warren strikes me as the best person for that job. But there's a good chance some relatively unknown Democrat will emerge from the political shadows between now and 2020.
If they can beat Trump, that's all that really counts.
I agree the Democratic presidential nominee has to be very charismatic. We need someone who is ultra confident and fast on their feet who can back Trump into the corner and show him for the fool that he is.
I like Warren but I don't think she is particularly charismatic, Hillary wasn't either. I really like Merkley but he too is lacking in that spark that ignites fire in people. I haven't seen enough of the other two women you mentioned.... I worry there's no obvious person and time is running short. Honestly, I'd still vote for Bernie in a heartbeat. I'll take an old firebrand ANYDAY over a corporatist in an empty suit. I don't care how old Bernie is, he has more fire in him than most people half his age.
I enjoy your posts. :)
Posted by: Sharon | August 03, 2018 at 09:47 PM
I thought your take on this was interesting...but, doubt you can underestimate the shallowness of this country’s voting population.
Posted by: Jackie Jardine | August 03, 2018 at 10:05 PM
Democrats keep doing stupid shit like taking pot shots at Bernie Sanders supporters when you would think after such a monumental feat of losing to Donald Trump they would want all the support they can get.
Posted by: Salemander | August 04, 2018 at 10:04 AM
I have to say, I tend to agree with your wife on this. I honestly was surprised that Hillary made it out of the primaries because I have so little faith in America truly supporting female leaders in any way, shape or form.
Now to be fair I didn't vote for her in the primaries so perhaps some of my surprise was just a ting of disappointment in Bernie losing. But regardless, I had no problem getting behind her (and seeing her as a very, very capable candidate) in the general election. It's hard for me to not speculate a bit that the overall lack of support for women in these roles was not feeding into The Bernie Bros almost vindictive "Never Her" approach. And I fear that any women that Hillary specifically supports in 2020 will be getting that same badge to wear if they like it not.
So no, while I think there are some amazing female candidates out there. (I'd add Tulsi Babbard to your list too by the way.) I think the misogyny in this country is far too great for them to stand a serious chance. And though I do like Jeff Merkley a lot, he has a very soft spoken demeanor. His words may have a real bite to them from time to time. But the delivery matters against someone as bombastic as Donald Trump.
With all that said, I would be so happy to be proven wrong!
Posted by: Logan | August 04, 2018 at 02:18 PM
Logan, good points. I hear what you're saying, but here's a counter-argument.
Clinton carried a lot of baggage. I liked her, but a lot of progressives didn't, for one reason or another. Bernie Sanders wasn't exactly highly supportive of Clinton, even after she won the nomination. The email server "scandal" was a big distraction. Comey's press conference and his later talk about reopening the investigation hurt her just before the election. There was Russian meddling.
Even with all that, Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million votes and barely lost the electoral college. I recall three states made the difference, with a total of about 70,000 votes giving the election to Trump,
So it sure seems like a more attractive (politically, not physically) and charismatic woman candidate could beat Trump in 2020, given how close Clinton came in 2016, even with all the headwinds against her. It's crazy that this country has never elected a female president.
The time has to come eventually. Maybe 2020 is that time. Hey, I'm getting older by the minute. (I'm 69 now.) I'd like to see a woman be elected president before I die. Do it for me, America!
Posted by: Brian Hines | August 04, 2018 at 02:32 PM
I completely agree with all you've said. There was a lot more too it in 2016, no doubt. And while Clinton came with plenty of her own (often earned) baggage, I'd dare say a great portion of it was actually "Bill's". But that's another rant for another time.
And like I said before, I would love to be wrong about my view on this. We all really only have the worlds we live in to sharp our perspective and understanding. At the moment I prefer yours to mine! Here's hoping America can get it done for us both!
Cheers!
Posted by: Logan | August 05, 2018 at 02:22 PM
Brian, I would be willing to bet you almost any amount that Trump will not be the Republican candidate for President in 2020.
Posted by: Jim Scheppke | August 05, 2018 at 02:23 PM
Jim, I'll take the bet. How about $20? Why do you think this?
Posted by: Brian Hines | August 05, 2018 at 09:25 PM
You're on. There is going to be an avalanche of evidence of his corruption and lack of fitness for office that he won't be able to survive. If the Dems take the House this fall he will probably be impeached (though perhaps not convicted in the Senate). He may not be forced to resign, but he certainly won't be the Republican nominee in 2020.
Posted by: Jim Scheppke | August 06, 2018 at 08:57 AM
I think Maxine Waters is a compelling Democrat choice to run against Trump. Great charisma, intelligence and wit. She's sophisticated and her campaign slogan is already well-established in the minds of thinking Americans everywhere... "Impeach 45!, Impeach 45!". A hell of a lot better than "Make America great again"... damnedest concept I ever heard. Imagine Maxine with Nancy Pelosi as a running mate. A dynamic duo if there ever was one.
Posted by: tucson | August 13, 2018 at 04:44 PM