Usually I don't believe in magical thinking. But I'll make an exception this time.
Because if expressing an anxiety means that it is less likely to occur, then I'm damn well going to say "I'm worried that Trump is going to order B-2 bombers to attack Iran's nuclear sites" -- since doing that would be a disaster.
Here's why I think there's a decent chance that Trump is going to insert the United States into the conflict between Israel and Iran, which is looking increasingly like a full-on war.
(1) Trump is leaving the G-7 summit in Canada a day early in order to focus on the Israel-Iran war.
President Donald Trump abruptly announced that he would leave the G7 summit a day early and return to Washington shortly after posting an ominous social media message that appeared to suggest more carnage in Iran.
...The change of plans only added to the sense of uncertainty around Israel’s ongoing military operation in Iran, which Trump seemed to warn was about to intensify in an ominous and somewhat cryptic social media post after a day of meeting with world leaders.
“Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life,” Trump wrote in a TruthSocial post late Monday. “Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again!”
He closed it on an alarming note: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
(2) Israel has expanded its bombing campaign to include targets in Iran beyond above-ground nuclear facilities and military officials. Oil and natural gas infrastructure is being bombed, as was Iran's state television. One goal now seems to be regime change spurred by wholesale destruction in Iran that might spur the nation's citizens to demand new leaders.
(3) Another Israeli goal is even clearer: draw the United States into finishing the job that Israel is incapable of on its own -- destroying Iran's underground nuclear facilities. If this isn't done, Israel believes that eventually Iran will be able to reconstitute its nuclear program and build several nuclear bombs.
(4) Doing that would require the United States to become involved in the war, since we have "bunker-busting bombs" delivered by B-2 bombers that supposedly are capable of penetrating into the underground nuclear facilities that Israel is unable to destroy on its own.
(5) Trump has been saying that the United States isn't going to be drawn into the Israel-Iran war. However, there's good reason to believe that the negotiations the United States had been having with Iran about a new deal aimed at preventing development of nuclear weapons were a ruse to lull the Iranians into thinking that Israel wouldn't attack while the negotiations were happening.
(6) So it's entirely possible that Trump is doing something similar now: saying that the United States isn't going to enter the Israel-Iran war as part of a scheme cooked up between this country and Israel to deceive Iran about our intentions.
Obviously I don't want to see Iran get nuclear weapons. Hardly anybody does.
But leaving aside the fact that the rules of war prohibit attacking another country that isn't clearly on the verge of starting a war (this would be a legal preemptive strike), there's no guarantee that using B-2 bombers to attack the underground nuclear sites would have the benefits that Israel thinks it would.
Maybe the sites are too well protected. Maybe there are sites that Israel and the United States aren't aware of. Maybe attacking the sites would inflame Iranian nationalism and pride, leading to a government that is even more hardcore and determined to have nuclear weapons than the current regime. Maybe bombing the sites would lead to a wave of terrorist attacks against the American people.
President Trump and his administration aren't known for well thought-out plans, to put it mildly. They're adept at talking a big game without being able to play one. That's why I have little confidence in Trump's ability to enter the war against Iran without screwing things up, big time.
Hopefully this won't happen. I'm just afraid that it will.
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