Salem Political Snark

Trump's bombing of Iran likely will have unintended consequences

Currently President Trump and the rest of his administration's merry band of MAGA acolytes are puffing out their chests, all proud that seven B-2 bombers dropped 14 giant 30,000 pound "bunker buster" bombs on three underground nuclear sites in Iran.

But as I said in a post about the attacks on my Church of the Churchless blog yesterday, it's likely that things aren't going to go so smoothly from now on.

The best case scenario would be that the attacks were successful, Iran doesn't retaliate in a major way, Iran agrees to a peace deal with the United States and Israel that guarantees Iran won't reconstitute its nuclear program, and a pro-democracy movement takes hold in Iran that ends the fundamentalist Islam control of the country by a single person, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Unfortunately, it is very unlikely that the best case scenario will happen.

As the saying goes, no plan survives first contact with the enemy. Iran will respond in some fashion. Then Israel and the United States will respond to that response. And so it will go, actions spurring reactions in a series of events that are impossible to predict.

Obviously it would be dangerous for Israel and the world if Iran ever was able to build a nuclear bomb and develop the capability to deploy it via a missile or some other means. Problem is, the March 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community said that Iran isn't building a nuclear weapon and hasn't reauthorized a suspended nuclear weapons program.

We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so. In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision making apparatus. Khamenei remains the final decision maker over Iran’s nuclear program, to include any decision to develop nuclear weapons.

So there was no pressing need to bomb the underground nuclear sites. It appears that Trump gave the go-ahead to do this because Israel's prime minister, Netanyahu, goaded Trump into action after Israel attacked Iran with the weapons at its disposal and needed the United States military to bomb the underground sites -- since only a B-2 bomber can carry the bunker-buster bomb, both of which Israel lacks.

As I said in my previous blog post:

Iran has been denying that it seeks to build a nuclear bomb. But it's been enriching uranium to levels that are far beyond what's needed for civilian nuclear purposes, such as generating electricity. Israel is justifiably concerned that if Iran did get a nuclear bomb, it could be used to destroy much of their country.

Problem is, life is inherently unpredictable. Wars, even more so. At the moment there's no reliable evidence as to how much damage the B-2 bomber attacks caused to Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

There's a strong possibility that the lesson Iran is going to take from the attacks by the United States and Israel is that it needs to acquire nuclear weapons as soon as possible. For nobody messes with North Korea, a nuclear power, while Russia invaded Ukraine after that country gave up its nuclear weapon stockpile following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in secret, perhaps with the help of Russia and North Korea. Or those countries could give a nuclear weapon to Iran, though they might not be willing to risk the blowback if this was made public. Today Vice-President Vance said that the United States isn't at war with Iran, it is at war with Iran's nuclear program.

Fine. But if Iran's nuclear program goes underground, not physically but secretly, how is the United States going to stop what can't be detected?

There's no way we're going to invade Iran like we invaded Iraq. If Iran quietly develops a nuclear weapons program that up until now it has held off on, the first we might hear about it is when Iran announces that it is a nuclear power with multiple weapons and the capability to deliver them.

As a final observation, the screenshot below of a post on X shows that the only reason Iran currently possesses such a large stockpile of enriched uranium is because Trump withdrew from the JCPOA agreement negotiated between Iran, the United States, and several other nations during Obama's second term.

After Trump tore up the agreement following his 2016 presidential win, Iran steadily enriched uranium from a negligible level until it reached about the same level as before the JCPOA went into effect. 

This means that Trump is having to deal with the problem that he himself created, since the JCPOA was working fine to limit Iran's nuclear capability until Trump trashed that agreement.

Mayor Julie Hoy can't get her story straight about Ethics Commission investigation

A few days ago the Salem Reporter published another informative story about the Oregon Government Ethics Commission decision to investigate Mayor Julie Hoy and city councilors for failing to comply with our state's public meeting law.

Julie Hoy

Here's an excerpt from "State investigator concludes Salem council discussed manager's ouster out of public view" by Joe Siess. 

Mayor Julie Hoy and Salem city councilors appear to have engaged in an illegal serial meeting leading up to the departure of former Salem City Manager Keith Stahley in February, a state investigator concluded in a preliminary report. 

That report led the ethics commission last week to vote in favor of pursuing a full investigation into Hoy and the entire city council.

The vote came as an investigator’s early review found there’s a basis to believe city officials violated the state’s open meetings law.

The investigation can take up to six months.

Salem Reporter obtained the investigator’s May 9 report and accompanying exhibits through a public records request.

The report provides more detail on the circumstances surrounding Stahley’s surprising ouster, which became public on Feb. 10.

Investigator Joshua Sullivan’s report found that between Feb. 1 and 10, Hoy had a series of conversations with a majority of the city council through phone calls, text messages and meetings. 

Those conversations considered Stahely’s performance and continued employment with the city and occurred before the council publicly voted to accept Stahley’s resignation, the report said. 

The investigator wrote that it appears that through those conversations, Hoy was gathering information from city councilors that could be used by the council to decide about Stahley’s employment.

Since I was the first person to file a complaint with the ethics commission (another person filed a complaint a few days after I did), naturally I'm interested in how the commission's investigation turns out.

The Salem Reporter story includes links to both the preliminary review by commission staff of the complaints against Hoy, which the commission broadened to include the entire city council, and the response by Mayor Hoy's attorney to the complaints. 

Hoy is in legal trouble because she spoke with a majority of the City Council about whether City Manager Keith Stahley should keep his job in individual calls/meetings with the councilors. Instead of conducting this city business in public -- the City Council is responsible for hiring and firing the City Manager -- Mayor Hoy did it privately out of public view.

This excerpt from the Salem Reporter story highlights how Hoy's story has changed about whether she was aware that Oregon law prohibits the sort of "serial communications" that Hoy engaged in with city councilors.

During her appearance before the commission on June 13, Hoy said she would not have made the calls if she knew it was against the law, modifying her attorney’s earlier statement that she was fully aware of the rules after consulting with the city attorney. 

She told the commission she lacked the necessary training and experience to understand her behavior might have violated state law.

“I would not have made these phone calls had I known that the ethics commission would have viewed them as a serial meeting. We have a need in Oregon for greater education for all electeds, myself included,” Hoy told the commission.

Here's an excerpt from the April 9, 2025 letter that Hoy's attorney sent to the Oregon Government Ethics Commission.

During these telephone calls, Mayor Hoy was very aware of the requirements and prohibitions of the Public Meetings law because she had sought and received advice from City Attorney Atchison prior to making the calls. City Attorney Atchison advised Mayor Hoy that one-on-one conversations with other members of Council did not violate the Public Meetings law or constitute a “serial meeting” as long as the Mayor did not serve as a conduit to allow a quorum of the Council to deliberate towards or make a decision.

So on April 9 Hoy's position was that she was "very aware of the requirements and prohibitions of the Public Meetings law." But on June 13 Hoy told the commission that she lacked the necessary training and experience to understand her behavior might have violated state law.

That statement is hard to believe.

The preliminary review by commission staff certainly doesn't support Hoy's revised position that, basically, "Gosh, how could a volunteer like me know that talking with members of the City Council privately about the employment status of the Salem City Manager was prohibited by Oregon's public meetings law?"

This is B.S. for a couple of reasons. First, Mayor Hoy got advice from the City Attorney, Dan Atchison, about what is and isn't allowed by the public meetings law when it comes to serial communications with a majority of the City Council. Second, the Salem Reporter story says:

State law requires elected officials in cities the size of Salem to undergo training in public meetings law at least once per term in office. Hoy was elected to the city council in 2022 and held the seat until she was sworn in as mayor in January.

Neff, the city spokeswoman, said the city provides periodic training to city councilors and also updates the council when changes to state law and administrative rules concerning public meetings take place. She said such training is part of orientation for new councilors.

So it sure seems that Mayor Hoy was well informed about our state's public meeting law before she apparently flouted it in her zeal to get rid of City Manager Stahley, who Hoy reportedly didn't get along well with.

Hoy had previous ethical lapses, as discussed in the Salem Reporter story. This shows that Hoy views ethics rules as an annoyance rather than as a requirement.

The possible serial meeting is not Hoy’s first brush with ethical concerns on the council. 

Last spring she received a warning from Stahley after she promoted a Salem tire shop for a city contract, nearly violating city ethics rules. At the time Hoy was a city councilor and a mayoral candidate running against former Salem Mayor Chris Hoy. The two Hoys are not related. 

During Chris Hoy’s tenure as mayor, Hoy, along with Councilor Deanna Gwyn, was publicly censured by a majority of the council after she did not recuse herself from voting on a land use appeal that benefitted a major campaign donor. 

That campaign donor was prominent Salem developer Larry Tokarski who donated $20,000 to Hoy’s mayoral campaign. Mountain West Investment Corp. donated $19,000 to Hoy’s campaign. Tokarski is the president of Mountain West.

Lastly, I found it amusing that in her letter to the ethics commission, Hoy's Lake Oswego attorney called this Salem Political Snark blog a "bog" and was upset that I filed my complaint with the commission as a blog post. Gosh, what a terrible thing, me making public my complaint about how Mayor Hoy violated the public meetings law.

I have been retained by Julie Hoy to represent her regarding a complaint filed by Brian Hines. He posted his ethics complaint on his publicly available bog, thereby circumventing the confidentiality rules of the Oregon Government Ethics Commission (the “Commission).

I read the commission's procedures for filing a complaint. I haven't been told by the commission that filing a complaint via a blog post goes against any rules. To the contrary, it seems to me that complaints about violations of the public meetings law should always be public. 

I'm worried that Trump is going to order B-2 bombers to attack Iran's nuclear sites

Usually I don't believe in magical thinking. But I'll make an exception this time.

Because if expressing an anxiety means that it is less likely to occur, then I'm damn well going to say "I'm worried that Trump is going to order B-2 bombers to attack Iran's nuclear sites" -- since doing that would be a disaster.

Here's why I think there's a decent chance that Trump is going to insert the United States into the conflict between Israel and Iran, which is looking increasingly like a full-on war.

(1) Trump is leaving the G-7 summit in Canada a day early in order to focus on the Israel-Iran war.

President Donald Trump abruptly announced that he would leave the G7 summit a day early and return to Washington shortly after posting an ominous social media message that appeared to suggest more carnage in Iran.

...The change of plans only added to the sense of uncertainty around Israel’s ongoing military operation in Iran, which Trump seemed to warn was about to intensify in an ominous and somewhat cryptic social media post after a day of meeting with world leaders.

“Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life,” Trump wrote in a TruthSocial post late Monday. “Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again!”

He closed it on an alarming note: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

(2) Israel has expanded its bombing campaign to include targets in Iran beyond above-ground nuclear facilities and military officials. Oil and natural gas infrastructure is being bombed, as was Iran's state television. One goal now seems to be regime change spurred by wholesale destruction in Iran that might spur the nation's citizens to demand new leaders.

(3) Another Israeli goal is even clearer: draw the United States into finishing the job that Israel is incapable of on its own -- destroying Iran's underground nuclear facilities. If this isn't done, Israel believes that eventually Iran will be able to reconstitute its nuclear program and build several nuclear bombs.

(4) Doing that would require the United States to become involved in the war, since we have "bunker-busting bombs" delivered by B-2 bombers that supposedly are capable of penetrating into the underground nuclear facilities that Israel is unable to destroy on its own.

(5) Trump has been saying that the United States isn't going to be drawn into the Israel-Iran war. However, there's good reason to believe that the negotiations the United States had been having with Iran about a new deal aimed at preventing development of nuclear weapons were a ruse to lull the Iranians into thinking that Israel wouldn't attack while the negotiations were happening.

(6) So it's entirely possible that Trump is doing something similar now: saying that the United States isn't going to enter the Israel-Iran war as part of a scheme cooked up between this country and Israel to deceive Iran about our intentions.

Obviously I don't want to see Iran get nuclear weapons. Hardly anybody does.

But leaving aside the fact that the rules of war prohibit attacking another country that isn't clearly on the verge of starting a war (this would be a legal preemptive strike), there's no guarantee that using B-2 bombers to attack the underground nuclear sites would have the benefits that Israel thinks it would.

Maybe the sites are too well protected. Maybe there are sites that Israel and the United States aren't aware of. Maybe attacking the sites would inflame Iranian nationalism and pride, leading to a government that is even more hardcore and determined to have nuclear weapons than the current regime. Maybe bombing the sites would lead to a wave of terrorist attacks against the American people.

President Trump and his administration aren't known for well thought-out plans, to put it mildly. They're adept at talking a big game without being able to play one. That's why I have little confidence in Trump's ability to enter the war against Iran without screwing things up, big time.

Hopefully this won't happen. I'm just afraid that it will.

 

Trump's military parade was boring. "No Kings" protests were inspiring.

Today I forced myself to watch a few minutes of Trump's military parade in Washington D.C. I expected that MSNBC and CNN would cover the whole parade, but they didn't. 

Probably the reason was that it was exceedingly boring. I've never seen a parade that was more listless and uninteresting than this one. Once you've seen one piece of military equipment roll by, or soldiers marching by, the rest is just repetition. 

Well, actually the troops I saw weren't marching. Not in the North Korean or Russian sense. They were merely walking. Boring!

Apparently people had the good sense to stay away from the Trump parade. The stands were almost empty in this video that I saw in a post on X.

Aside from being boring, I had no interest in watching a parade that featured Trump's army. That's how I view it now. For my whole life I've considered that our armed forces belonged to the entire country. Those days are gone in the Authoritarian Age of Trump.

The speech he gave recently at Fort Bragg had a backdrop of soldiers who laughed and applauded when Trump uttered his usual insults.

During the speech, uniformed soldiers yelled in support of Trump’s political statements and booed former President Joe Biden and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

“Do you think this crowd would have showed up for Biden? I don’t think so,” Trump said to boos about Biden.

Trump made other comments about Newsom and about Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, where protests against the administration’s crackdown on immigrants have been taking place and where Trump has ordered thousands of National Guard members and active-duty Marines deployed in response. Other Trump comments about the “fake news media,” transgender people, protesters in California and flag-burning also drew boos from the uniformed military members in attendance.

So we no longer can count on the independence of the armed forces to keep us safe from unconstitutional actions by Trump. The Fort Bragg commanding officers didn't instruct their troops to be non-political as Trump spoke. Looks like they have as little respect for our Constitution as Trump does.

The good news today for patriotic lovers of liberty was the massive turnout for the hundreds, or even thousands, of "No Kings" protest rallies around the United States. Organizers estimate that millions of people took part.

My wife went to the event here in Salem. She said that it seemed to be the biggest anti-Trump rally so far this year. The Salem Reporter estimates that 5,000 people attended, making it one of the largest rallies in recent Salem history. The 2017 Women's March rally was about the same size.

Thousands of people swarmed to the Capitol on Saturday to participate in the nationwide “No Kings” protests, with many expressing grave concern that the Trump administration is trampling constitutional rights and eroding democracy.  

...The protest set up on Northeast Center Street, with sign-carrying protesters lined for blocks.

Signs aired a diversity of grievances with some saying, “Defend the Rule of Law,” “Dump Trump” and “Chinga la Migra,” which loosely translates from Spanish as “Screw Immigration officials.”

Some people chanted, “ICE off our streets!”

The crowd on Saturday was diverse with protesters of varying ages, ethnic backgrounds, and national origin. Families with children and grandparents were a common sight. Street vendors sold grilled hot dogs, and a group of musicians played under a canopy. 

So much positive energy, a stark contrast with Trump's depressing military parade.

Hopefully the American people will continue to see through Trump's MAGA bullshit, recognizing how destructive it is to our country's values, economy, long term vitality, and respect around the world. HIs first term was the most incompetent in our nation's history. His second term is well on the way to surpassing that embarrassing mark.

To name but a few examples, rather than getting us out of foreign wars (something he promised would happen on Day 1 of his presidency), peace talks are stalled or non-existent in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, and now Israel is at war with Iran, a war that we might soon be dragged into.

Throughout his 2024 campaign Trump bragged about deporting everyone in this county who is here illegally. Now, though, Trump has ordered that deportations be halted for undocumented workers in the agriculture and hospitality (restaurants, lodging) industries. Apparently business owners have clued Trump in to an obvious fact that most people already knew: those workers are absolutely essential to our economy.

Ethics Commission approves investigation of my complaint against Mayor Hoy

Really satisfying.

Today the Oregon Government Ethics Commission agreed to open an investigation into my complaint against Salem Mayor Julie Hoy that alleged she engaged in prohibited serial communications with members of the City Council that resulted in the forced resignation of City Manager Keith Stahley. 

You can read my complaint that's in the form of a blog post: "Here's my Oregon Government Ethics Commission complaint about Keith Stahley's forced resignation." Another person, Elliott Lapinel, also filed a complaint about the same allegation.

Both the Salem Reporter and Statesman Journal have stories about the investigation. Here's excerpts from the Salem Reporter story by Joe Siess, "Ethics commission votes to investigate Salem mayor, councilors over possibly unethical communications."

The Oregon Government Ethics Commission voted Friday to investigate Salem Mayor Julie Hoy and all seven Salem city councilors to determine if they participated in an illegal serial meeting leading up to former Salem City Manager Keith Stahley’s abrupt resignation in February. 

The commission voted 5-2 with one commissioner not voting due to a conflict of interest, to initiate a full investigation into a possible prohibited serial meeting between the mayor and city councilors. The commission agreed that there was a “substantial objective basis” that Hoy and her colleagues violated state ethics rules and that an investigation is warranted. 

The councilors subject to investigation are Irvin Brown, Linda Nishioka, Shane Matthews, Deanna Gwyn, Vanessa Nordyke, Micki Varney, and Paul Tigan.

The investigation was triggered by a complaint filed in March by a Salem resident. 

Executive Director Susan Myers explained that a prohibited serial communication is when a quorum of a government body, in this case the Salem City Council, communicates to deliberate or decide on a matter that is within the governing body’s jurisdiction. 

In this case, members of the commission argued, the subject of the city manager was within the council’s jurisdiction. 

...The commission will now proceed with a full investigation into the matter. If it is determined that Hoy and her colleagues engaged in a serial meeting, each will be issued a letter of education, creating a record the commission can point to in the event that a similar incident should occur in the future, Myers said during the executive session.

And here's an excerpt from the Statesman Journal story by Whitney Woodworth, "Oregon Ethics Commission votes to investigate Salem Mayor Julie Hoy, city council."

The Oregon Ethics Commission voted June 13 to investigate Mayor Julie Hoy and Salem city councilors to determine whether the city council violated state public meeting laws surrounding the resignation of former City Manager Keith Stahley.

A series of phone calls, texts and meetings that triggered Stahley's resignation led to accusations of violating serial communication laws for governing body matters.

Investigators said the complaint alleges Hoy had individual conversations with the majority of the city council discussing whether Stahley should be asked to resign from his position as city manager and that the communications happened outside of a public meeting.

My complaint consists of three parts: (1) The initial grievance I filed with the City of Salem, (2) The City of Salem response to my grievance, prepared by a Portland legal firm, and (3) My response to the legal firm's arguments. This is a key section in item (3) that conveys the gist of why I believe Mayor Hoy engaged in prohibited serial communications with city councilors.

The City's response quotes the Oregon Administrative Rule included in my grievance, highlighting via boldface and underlining certain elements of the rule.

 

“A quorum of the members of a governing body shall not, outside of a meeting conducted in compliance with the Public Meetings Law, use a series of communications of any kind, directly or through intermediaries, for the purpose of deliberating or deciding on any matter that is within the jurisdiction of the governing body.”

 

My contention is that according to this Administrative Rule, the facts of this case support this complaint against Mayor Hoy.

 

-- It is undisputed that Mayor Hoy spoke with a quorum of the City Council, meaning a majority of the eight current members, which is five (one seat is vacant).

 

-- It is undisputed that Mayor Hoy's conversations with councilors took place outside of a meeting conducted in compliance with the Public Meetings law.

 

-- It is undisputed that Mayor Hoy's one-on-one conversations with city councilors comprised a series of communications about whether Stahley should consider resigning.

 

-- It is undisputed that the purpose of Mayor Hoy's serial communications had the purpose of deliberating or deciding whether Stahley should consider resigning. 

 

-- It is undisputed that deliberating or deciding whether Stahley should remain as City Manager is within the jurisdiction of the City Council.

 

Given these undisputed facts, it isn't surprising that the City engages in some grasping at legal straws in an attempt to excuse what Mayor Hoy did.

 

This is how the Oregon Government Ethics Commission describes the Investigation phase on its web site.

 

​If the Commission finds cause to pursue the case at the end of the preliminary review phase, the investigative phase will begin. The Commission has 180 days to investigate. During this time Commission staff may seek additional information and issue subpoenas for documents and oral testimony.

A staff report is prepared at the end of the investigation phase. This report will be considered by the Commission in a regular public meeting. Both the person who complained and the person the complaint is against will be sent copies of the report about one week prior to the meeting. At the meeting, the Commission may:

• • Dismiss the case,
  • Continue the investigation for no more than 30 days,
  • Find that Oregon Government Ethics, Lobby, or Public Meetings Law was violated,
  • Seek a negotiated settlement, or
  • Take other appropriate action if justified.

If the Commission finds a violation, the case will be moved to the contested case stage. If not, the case will be dismissed. The Commission is the only entity that can decide if a violation has occurred.

U.S. moves closer to authoritarianism as Trump lies about immigrant "invasion"

We're not even five months into Trump's second term as president and already the warnings from the 2024 Democratic campaign are coming true: if Trump is elected over Kamala Harris, our democracy will be threatened by authoritarianism. 

It's happening faster than I expected.

Which means buckle up for the remaining three and a half years of Trump's time in the White House, because he's going to be putting pedal to the metal increasingly forcefully in his drive to become the first truly authoritarian president in our nation's history.

This evening the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, issued a warning in a speech about Trump's pouring fuel on the fire of protests against hard-working undocumented immigrants being detained in Los Angeles by putting 2,000 members of the state's National Guard under federal control and sending hundreds of Marines to deal with a crisis of Trump's own making.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) warned in a public address Tuesday evening that democracy in the United States “is under assault” and broadly accused President Donald Trump of acting like an authoritarian leader, characterizing his unilateral deployment of U.S. armed forces to Los Angeles as the first phase of an overall decay in citizens’ rights.

“This isn’t just about protests here in Los Angeles. … This is about all of us,” Newsom said in his speech.“California may be first,” he added, “but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next. Democracy is next.”

Newsom reiterated his accusations that Trump broke the law by deploying military forces to the protests, calling it a “brazen abuse of power” that “inflamed a combustible situation.” He said the ongoing raids by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement were “very different than anything we’ve seen before,” and recounted the arrest of a U.S. citizen who was nine months pregnant, as well as the detainment of a 4-year-old girl.

He accused the Trump administration of “pushing mass deportations” and “indiscriminately targeting hardworking immigrant families,” pointing to raids near a Home Depot in a largely Latino suburb and a clothing company downtown. He rejected the idea that the immigration crackdown was focused on “serious criminals” or those with final deportation orders, and warned that migrants may just be the first vulnerable group to be targeted.

“If some of us could be snatched off the streets without a warrant, based only on suspicion or skin color, then none of us are safe,” Newsom stated. “Authoritarian regimes begin by targeting people who are least able to defend themselves. But they do not stop there.”

The reality is that the protests in Los Angeles are limited to a few streets around the downtown federal building. Some jerks have set a few cars on fire, thrown fireworks at police, and hurled water bottles at law enforcement personnel. 

The Sheriff of Los Angeles County has said that local authorities don't need any federal help in dealing with the protests. So has the Los Angeles Mayor, along with Governor Newsom. But Trump has pointed to protesters waving Mexican flags as evidence that an "invasion" of undocumented immigrants is taking place.

Well, I've seen demonstrators on college campuses waving Israeli flags. Why isn't this a sign that Israel is "invading" the United States? 

It seems clear that Trump is using Los Angeles as a test case of how far he can go in using our military to crush dissent against his cruel, mindless policies. Newsom is absolutely correct. If Trump gets away with  mobilizing the National Guard and Marines against protests by American citizens, he'll add this to his authoritarian playbook whenever people gather to say NO to his actions.

Today Trump threatened anyone who dares to protest his expensive military parade this Saturday in Washington D.C. that marks both the 250th anniversary of the U.S. army and Trump's 79th birthday.

“If there’s any protesters that want to come out, they’re will be met with very big force,” he said. “For those people that want to protest, they’re going to be met with very big force. And I haven’t even heard about a protest. But, you know, this is, people that hate our country, but they will be met with very heavy force.”

Note that Trump didn't threaten very big force against violent protestors. He threatened anyone who exercises their First Amendment right to protest what their president is doing. That use of free speech is fine in democracies. But Trump wants the United States to be more like Russia: a country run by an authoritarian where elections are held, but are meaningless, being controlled by the Authoritarian-in-Chief.

There's an increasing chance that Trump will use scattered protests against his policies in the run-up to the 2026 midterm election to declare that the United States is facing an insurrection by his favorite derogatory term, "people who hate our country." Then Trump would use martial law or some other bizarre legal theory to cancel the election in enough blue states to guarantee that Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate.

If that sounds wildly improbable, consider this: six months ago, how likely did it seem that a battalion of Marines would be sent to the streets of Los Angeles because a few protesters threw fireworks and water bottles at police officers? Very unlikely. Yet that is happening.

Trump's Big Beautiful Bill adds between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to nation's debt

The reconciliation legislation recently passed by the House and being considered by the Senate is called the One Big Beautiful Bill, because that's the name Trump gave it. 

Like just about everything Trump touches, the name is a lie. Actually the legislation is horribly ugly, though it is indeed big.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget summarizes the impact on the nation's debt, which is currently $36.2 trillion. 

The House of Representatives’ Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 reconciliation bill – titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) – would add $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over the coming decade, adding $3.0 trillion to the debt including interest. If its temporary provisions are extended without offsets, we estimate it would add $5.0 trillion to the debt including interest.

This is why Elon Musk strongly opposes the bill, urging that it be killed.

Musk has been wrong about many things after he became a major Trump supporter in the 2024 election and led efforts to slash government programs through DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency that isn't really a department and has actually made the federal government less efficient through Musk's thoughtless chainsaw approach to cutting costs when a thoughtful scalpel was called for.

But Musk is absolutely correct that the One Big Beautiful Bill will increase, not decrease, federal budget deficits. A Washington Post story, "Trump proposes policies that would increase the soaring national debt," says:

President Donald Trump is pursuing an agenda that would add trillions of dollars to the soaring national debt, ignoring warnings from Wall Street, Republican deficit hawks and his outgoing cost-cutting champion.

Though Trump ran for office in part on pledges to slash the size of the federal government and rein in the debt, his record so far has been less fiscally disciplined.

His administration this week asked Congress to cancel a little more than $9 billion in spending in the current fiscal year — a fraction of a federal budget that has grown to nearly $7 trillion. The government has already spent nearly $170 billion more in the fiscal year that began in October than it did by this point in the previous year.

The tariffs that the White House has said would produce a gusher of new revenue face an uncertain future, challenged in court and subject to revision as Trump negotiates with foreign trading partners.

And while Trump has proposed cutting agency spending by $163 billion in the coming fiscal year, even that reduction in some programs would have little effect on overall spending, which is driven primarily by social safety net programs.

The national debt now sits at $36.2 trillion, after sharp increases under Trump and President Joe Biden. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates for deficit reduction, estimates that Biden approved $4.7 trillion in new 10-year borrowing, while Trump approved $8.4 trillion during his first term, including $3.6 trillion in emergency pandemic relief.

Now Trump and congressional Republicans are racing to approve his One Big Beautiful Bill, which would extend his expensive 2017 tax cuts, end taxes on tips and overtime wages, increase deductions for state and local taxes, and increase spending on immigration enforcement.

“This debt wave coming looks almost insurmountable. I’m not sure why [the Trump administration] is pushing it,” said Chris Rupkey, the chief economist at FWD Bonds. “They’re trying to do too many things at the start of the administration when, with the deficit they inherited, there’s just no room to increase it.”

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has a comprehensive, easy to understand list of the major provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill. They say:

The table below is a comprehensive tally of each provision included in the respective committee bills that make up the OBBBA, along with a deficit impact estimate from the Congressional Budget Office. This table will be updated if additional changes are made.

This is the first category in the list. It shows that extending and expanding the individual provisions of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) would increase the nation's debt by $3.9 trillion.

I'm not sure why the SALT (State and Local Tax Deduction) item shows that increasing the cap to $40,000 for incomes below $500,000 from the current $10,000 cap would result in a ten year deficit reduction of $787 billion. I'd assumed that raising the cap would increase the deficit by reducing federal revenues. But maybe the reason is the mention of "limits on workarounds and high-income taxpayers," in line with a CNBC story. 

Trump's tariffs blocked by multi-state lawsuit led by Oregon Attorney General

Way to go Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield. Yesterday the lawsuit brought by Oregon and eleven other states challenging the legal authority for Trump's tariffs got a win from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Here's what Rayfield said in a media release.

Today, the U.S. Court of International Trade struck down the tariffs imposed by President Trump’s executive orders under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision was made in a multi-state lawsuit led by Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield.

In reaction to the ruling, Attorney General Rayfield said:

“The court’s ruling is a victory not just for Oregon, but for working families, small businesses, and everyday Americans. President Trump’s sweeping tariffs were unlawful, reckless, and economically devastating. They triggered retaliatory measures, inflated prices on essential goods, and placed an unfair burden on American families, small businesses and manufacturers.

“We brought this case because the Constitution doesn’t give any president unchecked authority to upend the economy. This ruling reaffirms that our laws matter, and that trade decisions can’t be made on the president’s whim.”

The decision halts the existing IEEPA tariffs. It also stops President Trump from increasing tariffs, including the threatened 145 percent tariffs on imports from China and 50 percent tariffs on imports from the European Union.

The case is led by Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield and Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes. Also joining the lawsuit are the attorneys general of Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York and Vermont.

An appeals court did impose a temporary stay on the lower court's decision. But this shouldn't be viewed as a clearcut victory for the Trump administration, according to a Washington Post story. 

The Court of International Trade dealt a blow to Trump’s aggressive trade policy Wednesday when it ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing tariffs on all imported goods.

The law he used to impose the tariffs, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, did not allow for such sweeping levies, it said. The court noted that the IEEPA says the president may only use his emergency powers “to deal with an unusual and extraordinary threat with respect to which a national emergency has been declared.”

The Trump administration quickly asked the federal appeals court to pause the decision. On Thursday, the court did just that, asking both the administration and the states and businesses who brought the suit to respond in early June.

The Liberty Justice Center, which filed one of the original suits challenging the tariffs that led to this decision, said in a statement Thursday that the pause is “merely a procedural step as the court considers the government's request for a longer stay pending appeal.”

Separately, a second federal court also ruled Thursday that many of Trump’s tariffs are unlawful. The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that the emergency economic powers law Trump invoked to impose many of the tariffs did not enable him to “unilaterally impose, revoke, pause, reinstate and adjust tariffs to reorder the global economy.”

...Legal experts have told The Washington Post that the lawsuits are likely to succeed if they make it to the Supreme Court. Tim Meyer, the co-director of the Center for International and Comparative Law at Duke University Law School, said the president is “overwriting” legislation that Congress passed to levy tariffs.

“When the White House is itself touting this as the largest tax increase in American history, I think that’s going to make the justices sit back and think the Constitution gives Congress, and Congress alone, the authority to levy duties, impose tariffs and to regulate foreign commerce,” said Meyer, who clerked for Supreme Court Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, a Trump-nominated Supreme Court justice, when he served on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit.

Until these lawsuits are resolved, they make it very difficult for the Trump administration to negotiate with the 90 or so countries that tariffs were imposed on. Why would any country want to make a deal with Trump since there's a good chance courts will rule that he doesn't have the legal authority to do what he did?

And even if this doesn't happen, Wall Street has given Trump a new nickname, TACO -- which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. That's true. Whenever the Trump tariffs cause a marked decline in the stock market or threaten our country's economic vitality, Trump backs off on the tariffs. He's a terrible negotiator.

Trump has definitely become an authoritarian

There's good reason to argue that Donald Trump has always been an authoritarian.

He admires strongmen such as the dictators and quasi-dictators who run Russia, North Korea, China, Turkey, and Hungary. He demands absolute loyalty with no backtalk from people who work for him. He despises central tenets of democracy like free and fair elections unless he manages to win.

But after four months of his second term as president, now there's no doubt on which side of the authoritarian fence Trump is on. Just about every action he's taken has either pushed to the limit norms that have been recognized by every preceding president, or broken that limit.

Every morning when I wake up I keep thinking that there's no way the news is going to be filled with some outrageous act by Trump that surpasses the depravity of what he's already done. But many mornings I'm unpleasantly surprised by what my iPhone brings me.

Today it was...

Trump threatening 50% tariffs on the European Union for no reason other than negotiators for the EU are refusing to give in to Trump's crazy trade war demands.

Trump telling Apple that if the company doesn't produce all of the iPhones sold in the United States by factories within the United States, he'll slap a 25% tariff on iPhones -- ignoring the inconvenient fact that tariffs can't be imposed on individual companies.

Trump invalidating the visas of every student from a foreign country who is attending Harvard University just because he doesn't like Harvard refusing to let the federal government decide how the university is run.

There were other outrages, but these were at the top of my Authoritarianism List. 

Our nation truly is in dangerous territory. It seems clear that hardly any Republicans in Congress are willing to stand up to Trump. It also is increasingly evident that the Trump administration will ignore rulings by federal courts that it doesn't like, even Supreme Court decisions.

So there's a very good chance that we're going to suffer through a constitutional crisis like the United States has never seen before, because no president has been so willing to trash the Constitution like Trump is.

Today Michael Berman, a professor of law and of philosophy at the University of Pennsylvania, had an opinion piece in the Washington Post, "No, Trump can't force his agenda on U.S. entities. They have rights." Here's some excerpts:

Universities refuse to fully dismantle their DEI programs? The Trump administration withdraws billions of dollars in federal funding, and cancels visas for their foreign students. Law firms won’t donate their services to causes that President Donald Trump favors? Trump cancels their lawyers’ security clearances and refuses to deal with their clients. Journalists still call the Gulf of Mexico “the Gulf of Mexico”? Trump pulls their credentials for press briefings. The state of Maine allows some transgender athletes to compete on some girls’ and women’s sports teams? Trump threatens to cut off federal funding for its public schools.

Different targets, but one common tool: leverage. Trump uses federal funds and other government benefits to pressure individuals and institutions into exercising their constitutional rights as he prefers. This is extortionate. And therefore unconstitutional.

...If Trump can use threats over tariffs to pressure nations into opening their markets or strengthening their currencies or ordering more U.S. arms, why can’t he do the same with American institutions?

Because foreign nations have no constitutional rights, but American universities, lawyers, journalists and states do — rights protected by the First, Fifth, Sixth and Tenth Amendments. Trump’s efforts to leverage government benefits against them violate those rights by penalizing their exercise.

...Leverage is powerful. More than two millennia ago, Archimedes of Syracuse is reputed to have claimed that, given a long enough lever and a place to stand, he could move the Earth. The courts have long recognized that such power requires constitutional limits. The president may not withhold otherwise available funds, or deny access to government benefits, to make it costly for Americans to exercise their constitutional rights.

Salem area special election results looking good, especially to liberals

With Oregon allowing mailed ballots to be counted as long as they're postmarked on or before election day, more ballots will be received in the next few days. But the current results for key races in the Salem area likely will hold up, given the margin of victory (or defeat) in each of them.

The biggest news is the 56-44 passage of Measure 24-514, also known as the Livability Levy. Given that there was no organized opposition to an increase in Salem property taxes to fund the library, parks, and Center 50+, it wasn't a surprise that the measure passed. But 56% in favor testifies to the smart campaigning supporters of the measure put in.  

Liberals are pleased that Mai Vang, the candidate endorsed by Progressive Salem in the Ward 6 City Council race to choose a replacement for Julie Hoy after she was elected mayor, appears to have won fairly handily over the conservative candidate, Deanna Garcia, and Logan Lor. This restores the progressive/conservative split on the City Council to 6-3.

The four Salem-Keizer School Board seats up for election got some national attention from Taniel, a political observer who I follow on X, but will always think of as Twitter. Currently the progressive slate is leading in three of the four races.

In Zone 1 Harnisch, a progressive, has a 56-44 lead over Mitchell, a conservative.

In Zone 2 Parker, a conservative, has a 52-48 led over Arredondo Baca, a progressive.

In Zone 5 Guzman Ortiz, a progressive, has a 52-48 lead over Kroker, a conservative.

In Zone 7 Fuller, a progressive, has a 54-45 lead over Radka, a conservative.

Lastly, the Chemeketa Community College bond measure is passing by a 52-48 margin.