The Republican Party has a problem with reality: it denies it. I'm not saying that all Republicans do this. But G.O.P. leaders sure do, along with a much higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats.
Evolution and global warming are prime examples of G.O.P. head-in-the-sand'ness. Now political polls can be added to the reality-denying list.
Nearly every national poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney. Gallup, Ipsos and Bloomberg all have the president up by six points. The RAND Corporation puts Mr. Obama up by seven and a half. Only Rasmussen has Mr. Romney up nationally among likely voters, by two points. Swing state surveys also give Mr. Obama the advantage, with new polls from The New York Times, CBS and Quinnipiac showing Mr. Obama up between 9 and 11 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
There’s still more than a month until the election. Mr. Obama could lose. Mr. Romney could win. Hanging chads could leave the result up to the Supreme Court. But at the moment it’s rational to conclude that Mr. Obama has a better chance of winning. Unless you’re on the Romney campaign, or you’re a right-wing pundit, in which case it’s only natural—in a stages of grief sort of way—to conclude that the polls are all wrong.
The good news for Democrats, and Obama, is that the more Republicans refuse to accept how poorly Romney is doing, the more likely it is that his campaign will continue on its current course.
So keep on engaging in your conspiracy theories, G.O.P. faithful.
Don't stop dreaming that purposeful sampling errors are the reason Romney is behind in both national and swing state polls. There will be time enough to wake up on the morning after election day.