As of today...
Gallup says Obama's job approval is 51% positive, 43% negative.
Gallup says Obama is favored over Romney among registered voters by 50% to 44%.
Five Thirty Eight says Obama has an 82% chance of winning the presidency, Romney 18%.
The debates? Good luck with that, Romney and Ryan. Obama and Biden are much more likely to extend their lead after the first few debates, in my decidedly optimistic progressive opinion.
If Obama loses the election, my Republican friends can point to this post and say, "look how wrong you were." OK, that's fair. But I'm putting it up today so I can gloat, "look how right I was."