Oregon's dry December -- caused by global warming?

Climatologists predict that extreme weather events will become more common as human-caused global warming intensifies. So I've been wondering if the really weird December weather here in the Pacific Northwest has anything to do with global warming.

There's a good chance that Portland will break the all-time record for least rainfall in December. I recall KGW meteorologist Rod HIll saying the record goes back all the way to 1876, or thereabouts.

New research presented at a recent American Geophysical Union meeting suggests there could be a link between the unusually long-lasting high pressure that has keep storms away from Oregon, and the loss of Arctic sea ice caused by global warming.

"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Does Arctic Amplification Fuel Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes?", presented at last week's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

Dr. Francis presented new research in review for publication, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. 

Now, so far there isn't conclusive evidence that this is happening, even though there's no doubt that the Arctic is getting warmer, greener, and with less ice.

But it sure seems reasonable to expect that losing Arctic sea ice equivalent to 44% of the size of the contiguous United States would, as Dr. Francis said, do something to the jet stream which normally funnels storms into the Pacific Northwest during the winter. 

Here's another excerpt from the Climate Progress repost of Jeff Master's Wunderblog piece:

The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt.

Comments

[tucson]

We are having a much wetter and colder fall here in Arizona than normal. It's cyclical you know.

But, yeah, there appears to be climate change. So what? It always has changed. What would be weird is if it didn't.

Even if it's caused by humans. So what? We're part of the environment aren't we? No escaping that. Even if you live in an air conditioned 42nd floor penthouse living on microwaved food. It still came from the environment...the steel, the plastic, the gadgets, the preservatives. We are all environmentalists no matter how we live.

It is all just the environment continually morphing. Maybe we all will die. So what? We're gonna die anyway. Probably something will go on living...cockroaches for sure. Take comfort in that.

I am adopting this attitude just for the hell of it. Slow night.

You know, let's face it.. nothing is going to change how humans function until they are forced to. No treaty...Kyoto Shmoto. Nothing... except when there is no more gas, then people will stop driving.

People want their stuff. They're not going to give it up. They think, let the other guy make the sacrifice. "Hell, you only live once and I want mine.", they say. "But if everyone gives it all up, then maybe I will, or not. Suckers and goody two shoes. That's what they are!"...some think.

Even if you ride a bike carbon emissions were created to make the bike. You can't win unless you give it ALL up. But you won't win because others won't give it ALL up.

It has to run it's course and what happens, happens. It's destiny. Divine or mundane. Take your pick. It doesn't matter unless you need it to be divine in order to feel OK.

Sustainable? They say even the sun will burn out. So what if there is one more generation or ten thousand? Eventually one will be the last, and that one probably won't like it. Maybe that one's us.

How many true paleoliths are there out there running around naked with sharpened sticks purely on principle...to save the earth? Huh? Two? OK, seven.

Environmentalists are hypocrites unless they are wearing a deerskin loincloth eating grubs.

The neanderthals were absorbed by cro-magnons. Cro-magonons may be absorbed by carbon emissions. Maybe it's God's design.

If there is no God it may be the design of something else. Or maybe there is no design at all. What do we know? We may believe, but we know nothing.

Really, we know nothing about any of this. We just theorize and postulate until our theorems and postulations are replaced by more of the same. It's all bullshit by bullshitters.

All we can do is live the best we can according to what we think is best which may or not be best at all.

We think following a guru is the best way until we find out it isn't.We think gang-banging is the best way until we find out it isn't.

So, try not to worry. Be nice. It feels better than being the other way.

Still, you can take the other path. You can cheat, deceive and lie. Go to Vegas, gamble and drink. Bang a whore. It's all the same.

Who's to say what's best? There are no golden tablets. Jimmy Swaggert cried for nothing.

No legislation will stop the momentum of this human experiment. It is out of our control. The only illusion is when we think it is controlable.

Don't take it so seriously. It's just an eternal shuffling of the atoms, ever changing, but still the same atoms. So, nothing is lost because nothing was ever gained.

Where there is no loss, there is no gain. Where there is no gain, there is no loss.

Hey! That's it!

[Brian Hines]

tucson, somewhat surprisingly (I often surprise myself) I pretty much agree with your pleasingly nihilistic sentiments. Yes, we humans think we're much more in control -- of ourselves, of the climate, of the economy, of anything -- than we really are.

I enjoy trying to change things for what I believe is the better. But I don't really know whether (1) I'm making any difference, or (2) if the difference, assuming it exists, is for the better, or even (3) that I or anyone knows with certainty what "better" means in many instances.

So, yeah, good advice: don't take it so seriously.

[Robert Paul Howard]

You mean the following is not true?

"So, ambition, succeeding beyond the norm, and rising to the top, really is good for society in general.It is good for there to be those who have more to inspire others to be successful as well."

Robert Paul Howard

[tucson]

RPH,

Gordon Gekko said, "Greed is good."

What better authority do we have than that?

It may or may not be true but it may not matter if it is or isn't.

[Robert Paul Howard]

Then perhaps - even here - "It's all bullshit by bullshitters."

Robert Paul Howard

[tucson]

RPH,

Don't worry, I got your drift from your earlier comments. The last was superfluous.