My fantasy endings for Wisconsin standoff

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's efforts to destroy public employee unions under the ruse of cost-cutting is great political theatre. Wow, in recent weeks we've seen...

Massive rallies of 70,000 people or more calling for compromise, rather than Koch-brother commanded Republican intransigence. Fourteen Democratic state senators fleeing to Illinois to deny a quorum and, hence, a vote on the union-busting bill. And today, Walker refusing to negotiate with the Dem senators.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker on Monday dismissed as "ridiculous" a letter from a Democratic state Senate leader who suggested a meeting "near the Wisconsin-Illinois border" to discuss the state's budget impasse.

I guess Walker also believes that 65% of Wisconsin adults are ridiculous, because that's how many favor him negotiating with Democrats and public employee unions to find a compromise, rather than sticking with Walker's Big Baby attitude of "my way or the highway."

Walker's approval rating is sinking rapidly -- 54% in Wisconsin don't like his job performance. This bodes well for recall efforts aimed at Republican legislators and Gov. Walker himself.

Regardless of how the standoff over the union-busting bill turns out, it'd be great if this saga ends with Walker getting kicked out of office after serving only one year as Governor. Yesterday I sent $20 off to the Wisconsin Democratic Party to support the recall efforts. Click here to make your own contribution.

So that's my #1 fantasy ending to the Wisconsin drama: Walker's legislation is scaled back to budget-balancing provisions unions already have agreed to; then Walker and key state legislators responsible for this travesty get recalled, sending a lesson to other right-wingers that the middle class won't stand for being sold out so corporations can get their tax breaks.

 

But like the Rolling Stones told us, you can't always get what you want. It might turn out that the courageous fourteen Democratic state senators will have to return to Wisconsin without a compromise agreement, permitting a vote on the union-busting bill to go forward.

If that happens, I hope their entry into Madison will be celebrated as a victory march, not a defeat. Because even if the horrible legislation passes, Walker and the Tea Party have lost -- having woken up a sleeping union giant and the clear majority of Americans who favor middle-class over corporate interests.

"Wait until 2012!" That should be the rallying cry as the Wisconsin Fourteen parade down the streets of Madison (riding in sedan chairs on the backs of flower-bedecked elephants would be a nice touch) on their way to the capitol.

Walker might win a vote on his budget bill, but he and his fellow Wisconsin Republicans are going to be losing a lot of other electoral contests in the next couple of years. Voters have turned against them; teachers and other public employees won't let citizens forget this come election time.

Wars aren't won or lost by a single battle.

Supporters of the middle class in Wisconsin should be proud of how they've waged their campaign against Scott Walker's budget bill. They've won the hearts and minds of countless voters both in their state and around the country. In 2012, this engergized electorate is going to punish Republicans and re-elect Barack Obama.

That isn't a fantasy. I'm confident it's going to become reality.

Comments

[Clark J]

Despite what "economist" Michael Moore said, there really is no more money. Budget figures speak for themselves. I guess he means there is plenty of money if we redistribute what the wealthy have. I wonder if he wants his money redistributed. I know, load a bus and send some of the homeless to live at his house. He shouldn't mind.

You talk about the middle class being sold out for corporate tax breaks, well the budget is being sucked dry by union benefits voted in by politicians whose campaigns are funded by union dues. Corruption all around.

What needs to be admitted is that politicians tend to be "bought and paid for" whether they have long noses or big ears. It's a dirty game and both players are ugly. Don't get your hopes up no matter where your ideology lies.

[DJ]

Congratulations Governor Walker! Thank you Wisconsin! Thank you Tea Party!

So much for your fantasy, Brian. Bring on the sour grapes.

Sincerely,
Big Oil

[tucson]

Brian,

When Ob*ma won in 2008, you were very celebratory after two frustrating, especially for leftists, republican victories.

You said to republicans, "I feel your pain."

I am not a republican(I tend to be sort of a semi-libertarian type), but I did feel pain with Ob*ma's win. I knew he was bad news.

I was going to save this for when Romney wins in Nov., but that is no sure thing.

So, to hedge my bet I'm going to take advantage of this opportunity while I have one and say it now..

I feel your pain.

Man, that feels good!

Sorry to gloat. I'm usually a good sport.

[Brian Hines]

tucson, thanks for feeling my pain. Which isn't all that severe. As I said in tonight's post, what goes up, comes down. I've gone through downs in Oregon elections that turned into ups a few years later.

Same thing will happen in Wisconsin, I bet. Victories often turn into over-reaching, which turns voters off and leads to victories by the other side.

[DJ]

Brian, the Walker recall campaign you donated to stated it was in opposition to “…the right-wing forces of austerity…” One year later the people of Wisconsin gave austerity passing marks at the ballot box. They apparently like the results of reduced government spending and reduced property taxes: a budget surplus, increased employment, avoidance of teacher layoffs, etc. These are the very results Obama and Krugman insist require increased spending supported by increased taxes.

In the post above you say, “…it'd be great if this saga ends with Walker getting kicked out of office after serving only one year as Governor.” For that to have been the case, Walker’s policies would have had to hurt the people of Wisconsin who in turn would have voted him out. How does that make you any different than Mitch McConnell who you criticized for saying something similar here: http://hinessight.blogs.com/hinessight/2012/05/are-you-better-off-today-than-when-mitch-mcconnell-said.html

Here’s what you said: “The not-so G.O.P. dislikes Obama and his policies so much, it seems that Republicans would rather have the economy hurt, than pass legislation which would make things better.”

Likewise, one can then say: “Brian disliked Walker and his policies so much, it seems that he would rather have seen the Wisconsin economy hurt, than see Republican legislation make things better.”

Again, Brian, please explain – how are you different from McConnell?

Sincerely,
Big Oil

[Blogger Brian]

DJ, you aren't taking into account some important facts:

(1) Exit polls showed that Wisconsin voters favor Obama by seven points over Romney. So Romney's tax cuts and government slashing isn't favored by most voters in the state.

(2) The same exit polls showed that 10% of voters didn't believe that a governor recall election was ever justified for any other than illegal misconduct. Many others had qualms about recalls in general. So this was an election that many voters didn't think should be held -- another reason why it wasn't really a referendum on Walker's policies.

(3) When voters in another mid-west state, Ohio, had a chance to vote on whether union-bashing laws should be allowed to stand, they resoundingly voted down the laws.

(4) Economic growth in the United States is much higher than it is in European nations that are pursuing a Romney-like austerity program. So unless voters want a double-dip recession, they shouldn't support Romney.

[DJ]

Brian, here’s a dose of reality to round out your rose-colored view:

(1) The flawed Wisconsin exit poll that showed Obama over Romney by seven points is the same exit poll that projected a 50/50 “too close to call” result between Walker and Barrett – a race which Walker actually won by seven points. Calibrated accordingly, the exit poll actually puts Obama and Romney at 50/50 which matches the May 31st NBC-Marist poll. No matter how you slice it, Obama has slipped dramatically since his 14 point Wisconsin win over McCain in 2008.

(2) True, but that’s a polite justification to give a pollster. Realistically, any voter with buyer’s remorse would recall a Governor who increased their taxes while reducing employment. Walker pledged to do the opposite and then did the opposite. Voters – including MORE THAN ONE THIRD OF PUBLIC UNION MEMBERS – rewarded him for it.

(3) Correct on Ohio – and that’s precisely what makes this Wisconsin blue-state result such a watershed moment. FDR rejected public union collective bargaining at the federal level…Wisconsin was the first state to embrace it at the state level…and now is the first state to reject it. And let’s not forget that on the same night Wisconsin voted, Democratic controlled blue state cities of San Diego and Santa Clara overwhelmingly voted for public union pension reform as well. Hardly a sign that Wisconsin is an anomaly or that this is strictly a Republican/conservative movement.

(4) Despite Krugman’s essays, “European austerity” is largely a myth. Government spending in every European nation except Greece is higher today than at the start of the Great Recession. As for today’s anemic but positive growth in the US… it makes perfect sense that the world’s most productive economy going into a worldwide recession would be statistically favored to show the most growth coming out of it. http://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2012/05/08/paul-krugman-and-the-european-austerity-myth/

Clearly, Brian, your perspective shows you’re still holding out hope that Wisconsin’s economy will be hurt rather than helped by Walker’s policies and Republican legislation. Again I ask - how does that make you any different from Mitch McConnell who you criticize for doing the same?

Sincerely,
Big Oil

[DJ]

Rasmussen Wisconsin poll now has Romney over Obama by three points 47%-44%. (Last month Rasmussen had Obama over Romney 49%-45%).

http://www.examiner.com/article/new-rasmussen-poll-shows-romney-ahead-of-obama-wisconsin

Sincerely,
Big Oil

[Brian Hines]

DJ, Rasmussen is notoriously inaccurate, being almost as biased as Fox News. Real Clear Politics, which aggregates polls, shows that Rasmussen is the only recent poll showing a lead for Romney in Wisconsin. Obama leads by 3.4 points in the RCP poll average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

[DJ]

Brian, that may be true. And trends matter more than individual polls. Since October 2011 even Rasmussen has had Obama between 4 and 11 points over Romney in Wisconsin – until now. Most importantly (3) of the (5) polls in the current RCP aggregate giving Obama a 3.4 point advantage were taken 2-4 weeks before the Wisconsin recall election. Ancient history.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html#polls

Sincerely,
Big Oil

[Brian Hines]

Here's some good analyses describing how the Rasmussen poll in Wisconsin is an outlier (as Rasmussen often is, being notoriously biased toward Republican candidates to the tune of 3% or more). See:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/13/1099816/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-Ras-goes-way-off-the-board-in-Wisconsin-Prescient-or-absurd?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/11/03/916732/-Rasmussen-Being-Rasmussen-The-Evidence-Is-In