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February 11, 2010


Brian, take a peak at this book
http://www.amazon.com/Climate-Extremes-Global-Warming-Science/dp/1933995238 or at least read the reviews. Thesis is that there is man made climate change but the seas won't rise that much.

Too bad people like Hannity, who are so busy crowing, don't watch Day after Tomorrow. Yes, it isn't likely to happen that fast but it makes clear what global warming will actually do. They won't have a clue until it's too late because it suits them to laugh instead of act.

Prof. Phil Jones (climategate) concedes there has been no significant global warming for 15 years and that warm temperatures during midieval times suggests warming is not man made.

This is by no means presented as a definitve counter-argument to man-made global warming. However, one big shot who's data is relied upon by many admits his data is erroneous.


Carl, it isn't true that Jones admitted his data are erroneous. See:

The BBC interview with Jones is being mischaracterized by some media outlets, including the Daily Mail. Here's another view of the interview:

Some excerpts (quotes from RealClimate):
What Jones actually said is that, while the globe has nominally warmed since 1995, it is difficult to establish the statistical significance of that warming given the short nature of the time interval (1995-present) involved. The warming trend consequently doesn’t quite achieve statistical significance. But it is extremely difficult to establish a statistically significant trend over a time interval as short as 15 years–a point we have made countless times at RealClimate. It is also worth noting that the CRU record indicates slightly less warming than other global temperature estimates such as the GISS record.
Update 2/16/10. Phil Jones has confirmed to us that our interpretations of his comments in the BBC interview are indeed the correct ones, and that he agrees with the statements in our piece above. He and his CRU colleagues have also put up an initial response to some of the false allegations in the Daily Mail piece.

Even the information you provided above indicates that Professor Phil Jones is uncertain about what is going on.

My point is that no one understands all the mechanisms involved in global climate activity. I put climate change science in the same category as seismic science. They know a lot about earthquakes, but there is even more that they don't know because no one can consistently and accurately predict where, when or how big earthquakes will be or how much damage they will cause.

Why should we think scientists can accurately predict what will be happening to the global climate in 5-10 or 50 years or how much damage, if any, will be caused? Even very short term daily weather forecasts are often inaccurate.

Until there is certainty, initiating costly and drastic regulations that probably will harm economies and increase the costs of the production of goods seems foolish.
Why not evacuate west coast cities immediately and relocate them because it is believed big earthquakes will happen there? Or at least create a tax that will pay for every building to be retrofitted to withstand an 8.0 earthquake?

Entrepeneurs and scientists can work together to develop solutions to polluting technologies that really work and are cost effective, nothing wrong with that, but it is a fantasy to think big polluters like China and India can be encouraged to clean up their acts.

Maybe some western countries can somehow be politically cajoled to begin extreme measures to save the planet, but it will be at their expense and disadvantage against the other big boys who won't play fair by the same rules.

They don't put a stoplight at an intersection until there is a bad accident and the world will not band together against climate change until there is a proven cause-effect relationship with human activity and major climate disasters.

Carl, with all due respect, you need to expose yourself to some solid science about global climate change. Here's a suggestion, a book by noted NASA researcher James Hansen that I'm reading:

It's called "Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity." While that title may sound overly scary, it is disturbingly accurate.

Hansen describes (in the part I've read so far) how paleoclimate data shows what has actually happened on Earth -- not predictions, not modeling, but actual events. In short, sea levels and such can change markedly in a matter of decades, not centuries, once feedback loops start operating.

Nature used to produce climate change on its own, through changes in the tilt of the earth and what not. Now humans are producing "climate forcings." There won't be time to change our behaviors once severe effects, disasters, are apparent -- as you wrongly suggest.

We're probably already past the point of no return. I feel a strong responsibility to my grandchild and other members of future generations to leave Earth habitable by humans. It boggles my mind that global warming deniers are so cavalier, and yes, selfish in this regard.

We need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. It will be great for the U.S. economy to become a world leader in renewable energy sources. So it is a no-brainer to reduce our nation's (and the world's) carbon footprint. People don't wait to get a fire extinguisher until they see a fire starting. Prevention is better than cure. Planning ahead is better than reacting in panic mode.

Brian, you're reading the fraud, James Hansen??? Is there any hope for you?

Host--"Nature used to produce climate change on its own, through changes in the tilt of the earth and what not. Now humans are producing "climate forcings." There won't be time to change our behaviors once severe effects, disasters, are apparent -- as you wrongly suggest."

++I didn't suggest there would be time to change our behaviors. I'm just saying behavior won't change until it is forced to, and then, as you say, it may (or may not) be too late.

You're not going to stop India and China from disgorging industrial carbon pollutants, nor are you going to get americans and all the other modern nationalities to give up their cars and trucks until there is a cheaper and better alternative.

Do you drive a car? Do you buy manufactured products? Do you have plastics in the house? Do you use electricity? Do you patronize businesses that utilize these things? See the problem? If true believers won't give up their carbon lifestyles how do you get those to do it who are sitting on the fence, not to mention the sceptics.

Going cold turkey is tough to get an addict to do.

If a future climate apocalypse turns out to be man made, I guess we'll have to learn the hard way.

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