Time to panic about swine (H1N1) flu?

I'm trying to decide how concerned I should be about the potential swine flu (officially called H1N1) pandemic.

There's so many things to panic about -- the economy, global climate change, whether Jack Bauer is going to survive his exposure to a lethal bio agent and come back for another season of "24."

I've got to prioritize my anxieties. So where should swine flu reasonably place on a holy shit! list of potential freakouts?

I'd say, about halfway. Nearer the bottom at the moment; could rise considerably higher this fall and winter if H1N1 returns in a more virulent form.

Back in 2005 I got pretty worried about avian flu. My "Masks to protect against avian flu" post has been getting quite a bit of Google'ish attention recently. That scare petered out, which surely helps make many people suspect that the current swine flu excitement is similarly overblown.

Well, maybe. It's looking like the H1N1 strain is acting a lot like normal seasonal flu in the United States. However, that's no reason to relax.

Effect Measure is a good source of info on what's happening with the swine flu outbreak. It's "a forum for progressive public health discussion and argument."

One post talks about the overreaction overreaction. Meaning, we shouldn't overdo our reaction to what may seem to be excessive hype about a possible pandemic.

The irony is that the overreaction backlash will be more severe the more successful the public health measures are. If, for example, the virus peters out this spring because transmission was interrupted long enough for environmental conditions (whatever they are) to tip the balance against viral spread, CDC and local health officials will be accused of over reacting. It's another example of the adage, "When public health works, nothing happens." On the other hand, if local officials do nothing and things get worse, they will be accused of being slow.

Another post notes that normal seasonal flu kills an estimated 30,000 people a year. Swine flu could be worse. Not because it is more virulent, but due to the fact that it's a new strain and nobody has resistance to it.

Now take a bad flu season and double it. To each individual it's the same disease but now everybody is getting it at once, in every community and all over the world. In terms of virulence, it's a mild pandemic. It's not a lethal virus like 1918. But in terms of social disruption it could be very bad. If twice as many people get sick, the number of deaths could be 80,000 in the US instead of 40,000.

My suspicion, from what I've heard and read, is that swine/H1N1 flu isn't going to be a huge problem this spring and summer. Effective measures are being taken to limit its spread. Hopefully these will work.

But it might mutate into a more dangerous form, making next winter's flu season more worrisome than usual. Flu shots almost certainly will incorporate the H1N1 virus. If plenty are available, and most people get them, we should be OK.

Basic lesson, as pointed out by Effect Measure: government public health programs are important. Tax dollars spent in this area produce really useful (and lifesaving) results.

We are pouring tens of billions into infrastructure. I'm a big fan of high speed rail. But the public health and social services infrastructure -- good, job producing infrastructure -- needs attention and needs it right away because of this virus.

Comments

[Eric]

Well, I have been in touch with friends and family in Mexico and they are all well, no one is sick, and I have quite a large family there.
It also seems that, of the 100 or so people who died in Mexico City due to H1N1, at least half have miraculously come back to life! No they are saying only around 50 have died (by no means less tragic, but still). There are the usual conspiracy theories that unfortunately plague my people because of living for so long with a corrupt government. "The government is in cahoots with the pharmaceutical companies" and others.
Many people die every day in Mexico City due to respiratory illnesses. This flu could have easily complicated the health of many people who were possibly pretty sick to begin with. Of course I don't know that for a fact.
Now, I'm not ready to say that this is the case, but it does make you wonder.