HinesSight

Global warming is global, not local

Memo from Reality to Global Climate Change Deniers: Even though somewhere it's really cold and there's a lot of snow on the ground, this doesn't mean global warming isn't happening.

You'd think this would be obvious to anyone with half a brain.

But anti-scientific right-wingers don't seem to be operating with a full cranium when it comes to global warming.

I liked Cheryl Smith's letter to the editor in today's Portland Oregonian.

I know it must be highly amusing for you, but will the day ever come that you don't print letters from global warming deniers that equate our local weather condition with the larger phenomena of climate change? I'm sure they think they are being very clever but it's getting kind of stale.

That's for sure.

This was Portland's snowiest December ever -- which means zilch when it comes to understanding the Earth's overall temperature trend.

But try telling that to all of those who crowed, "Ooh, ooh, the roads are covered with ice! Where's Al Gore's global warming now?!"

Well, right where it's always been: on the pedestal of virtually certain facts.

The Bush administration isn't a big promoter of climate change literacy (to put it mildly), but even the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says that global warming is happening:

What's Known

Scientists know with virtual certainty that:

• Human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times are well-documented and understood.
• The atmospheric buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is largely the result of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels.
• An “unequivocal” warming trend of about 1.0 to 1.7°F occurred from 1906-2005. Warming occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and over the oceans (IPCC, 2007).
• The major greenhouse gases emitted by human activities remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries. It is therefore virtually certain that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue to rise over the next few decades.
• Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to warm the planet.

However, on Lars Larson's conservative talk show today (Rob Kremer stood in for Lars) I gritted my teeth as I listened to science writer David Appell grapple with two global warming deniers: Kremer and local meteorologist Chuck Weise.

Fortunately for my dental health I got to Lancaster Mall and shut off the car radio after hearing only about ten minutes of the hour-long program.

Appell made good sense. Kremer and Weise were just blathering.

But they could blather at a high volume, and confidently, even when facts were left far behind. So I fear that some listeners took them seriously rather than laughing at their ignorance.

Global warming is global.

The evidence for it is derived from many years of Earth-wide temperature observations. What happens one year in one part of the world has no scientific significance.

That's why "It's getting warm out there!" properly mocks those who had a lot to say about how global warming is a crock when a cold spell hit parts of the United States, but lost their tongues when unusual warmth recently embraced the country's eastern third.

And, no, the Earth didn't get cooler in the last decade, as I keep hearing on know-nothing conservative talk radio. It kept on warming. More facts:

More robustly, the most recent 5-year averages are all significantly higher than any in the last century. The last decade is by far the warmest decade globally in the record. These big picture conclusions are the same if you look at any of the data sets, though the actual numbers are slightly different (relating principally to the data extrapolation - particularly in the Arctic).

So let it snow here in western Oregon. Or, not (which I'd prefer after dealing with tire chains for as much as I want to this winter).

Doesn't affect global warming reality.

Well pump going rapidly on and off? Check pressure tank.

If humility is good for the soul, and admitting mistakes makes one humble, this blog post should get me one step further to saintliness.

I'm also writing it because I enjoy firing up Google when I have a self-inflicted household problem and finding that some other guy has done something just as stupid as I did -- and thankfully shared the solution to getting out of the ditch he dug himself into.

So here's my tale of well pump "short cycling" (turning on and off rapidly, which can burn out a pump).

First, let's define a term: when I said stupid in the paragraph above I really meant unknowing. To me, doing something stupid is when you know it's the wrong thing to do. Innocently doing the wrong thing is different.

I had the right intentions.

Our complicated house water treatment system had been acting up. We've got an ozonator, iron filter, ph adjuster, and softener all lined up in our garage, cleaning our crappy well water before it enters the house.

Ozone gets pumped into a pipe right off the bat. Excess air is supposed to bleed off via a solenoid-controlled release valve at the top of the ozanator tank.

If the valve gets plugged up, air starts accumulating in the house water pipes, causing unwanted bursts of excitement when we turn a faucet on or flush a toilet.

I've been taught how to clean the release valve by Pacific Mist Water Company staff (we love these guys -- highly recommended if you've got water problems and live in the Willamette Valley or Portland area).

The deed got done, but the ozonator tank didn't fill up with water after the air supposedly was released. I'd been told that plugging the ozonator compressor directly into an extension cord might help speed the filling process.

I tried that for a while. Tank still sounded just as empty when I banged it with a screwdriver. Then came my unknowing decision: to also plug in the ozone generator (I think that is what it's called).

What this did, not surprisingly in retrospect but definitely a Yikes! producer when I went back into the garage to check on things half an hour later, was drastically increase the pressure in the pipes.

Ozonated air was going in. None was being released because no water was flowing (usually the ozone generator and release valve are turned on by a flow switch).

The pressure gauge was pointing at its maximum: 100 psi. Who knows how high it was. Usually the well pump kicks on at 40 and off at 60. We started running water to get the pressure down.

Which worked. But later we noticed that the pointer on the pressure gauge was bouncing around, which meant that the pump was turning on and off rapidly as the pressure dropped below 40 and rose above 60.

Any sort of water use, even minimal, made the pressure gauge freak out. The freaking out quickly spread to the psyche's of Laurel and me, since we'd recently had to have a new pump installed and didn't want to wreck it.

So we turned off the pump circuit breaker.

Soon thereafter people arrived for our annual holiday potluck. When they walked in the door they got instructions about how to dump water from a pail into the toilet if they had to go to the bathroom.

Fun (not). But the potluck went fine, with paper plates and plastic forks.

This morning I turned my attention to figuring out the short cycling problem. I lucked out with my first phone call, to Darren Currier of Salem's Aquarius Pump Service.

He was out and about with his family on Sunday morning, but cheerfully took a series of calls from me as he walked me through solving our Flex-Lite pressure tank problem.

(For city water folks, here's some basic info about how a pressure tank works with a well pump: Download Well pressure tank)

Darren didn't believe that the short cycling was due to excess pressure. Usually, he said, it's a loss of pressure in the air bladder that leads to the pump rapidly turning on and off.

However, high pressure can do the same thing, as cogently described here. Darren just couldn't understand how excess air pressure in the pipes could increase pressure in the bladder.

Nor could Jeff at Pacific Mist. Nor could I (who am by far the most ignorant of the three about matters pressure tank'ish, yet knew enough to be equally perplexed).

Nevertheless, I dutifully followed Darren's instructions.

Shut off the well pump circuit breaker. Drained the small amount of water in the pressure tank using an outside hose. Popped off the cover on the top of the tank. Checked the bladder pressure using a tire gauge.

It was over 50 psi.

Don't know how much over, since the gauge only measured that high. Darren recommended 36-38 psi, a few pounds under the pump-on pressure on our 40-60 psi pressure switch.

I bled air from the bladder valve by pressing the tire gauge in partway. Got it down to 37 psi. Fired up the pump and restored the water treatment equipment to their normal states. Nervously turned on water in the house, not knowing what to expect.

Yay! Pressure switch acted normally. No bouncing around. Problem seemingly solved.

It's still a mystery how high pressure in the pipes would produce high pressure in the Flex-Lite tank. The two must be connected, since we hadn't had any problems with the tank before I stupidly unknowingly dumped ozone into the pipes with no way for it to be released.

But as anyone with a well knows, water works in mysterious ways.

Maybe someone knowledgeable about such esoterica will read this one day and leave an answer via a comment.

[Next-day update: some Googling this morning revealed some interesting facts about ozone. It degrades rubber. Expose a balloon to ozone rich air and eventually the rubber will burst. So it seems possible that concentrated ozone could penetrate the rubber bladder in the pressure tank, causing the pressure of the air inside to rise.]

Look at me, I'm a publisher!

Well, more of a publisher.

Before, my best-selling book (in the admittedly rather narrow "Greek philosophers: Plotinus" genre) had the Unlimited Publishing name and logo on the cover and title page.

Now it's just me, me, me -- in the guise of Adrasteia Publishing, which is tasty little me with an assumed business name sprinkled on top.

In the photo I'm holding a proof copy of the Adrasteia'ized "Return to the One" that arrived today from Create Space.

As I wrote about a few weeks ago, I decided to cut my ties with Unlimited Publishing, a print on demand publisher that looked attractive to me back in 2003 in part because UP didn't accept every book manuscript with a $500 check attached.

Five years later, things look different.

With Create Space I'll make more on each book sale through Amazon or wherever; I'll have more control over pricing and publishing; and I've already gotten the satisfaction of seeing "Adrasteia Publishing" become the sole name on the cover and copyright page.

Charles King of Cox-King Multimedia, my highly competent book designer, found a typeface with a cool looking "A" -- now I'm a publisher with a logo! (note the loopy connection with Return to the One)

So far I've been happy with how Create Space has treated me. Their web site's process for uploading book cover and interior files is clean and easy to understand.

This cartoon encapsulates the reason so many writers are choosing to go the publish-it-yourself route with Create Space and similar services even if they could hook up with a "real" book publisher.

Grouchy complaining about Oregon's big snowstorm

It's Christmas Eve, so I need to get some Grinchiness out of my system before the clock strikes twelve and negativity becomes politically (and religiously) incorrect.

First, a few personal positives about Oregon's biggest-ever December snowstorm.

Our electricity never went off here in rural south Salem. None of our pipes froze and our heat pump kept working. We drove around fine with the aid of tire chains and all wheel drive. Today's rain has gotten our driveway clear.

So we got through the storm better than lots of people, for which we're grateful. Friends in Turner (on the other side of I-5) haven't had electricity for five days. That's terrible.

Still, it'll feel good to get some gripes off of my chest and into the blogosphere.

Portland TV coverage. We're still ABC-less, due to the ridiculous pissing match between DISH network and Fisher Communications/KATU. So my irritations with how the Portland stations covered the storm is mostly based on watching KGW, and a bit of channels 6 and 12.

Rest of Earth to Metro area-centric KGW: Through the miracle of cable and satellite technology, people can see your weather reports even though they're far from Portland. So you might consider adding qualifiers like "metro forecast" to your end-of-report summary.

Otherwise we mid-Willamette valley'ers get freaked when we see a prediction of six inches of snow, yet the National Weather Service says much less will fall in our local area.

On that subject...I found that National Weather Service web sites (here, here, and here) were much more informative and up to date than the weather page of the television station sites.

Store snow clearing. My wife grew up in Illinois and Wisconsin. She says that parking lots almost always are cleared by merchants after it snows. Not here in Oregon, judging by what I found when I drove into Salem yesterday and today.

The slipperiest part of my journey wasn't on the roads; it was navigating parking lots filled with crusty, rutted, slushy snow and ice.

Not always easy to drive on without chains, traction tires, or four wheel drive. And equally unpleasant to walk on. I saw that one establishment had a snow shovel by the front door, apparently so patrons could extricate their car if it was stuck.

Well, I'm not selling anything. And we've got a damn long driveway. Plus, I don't have a real snow shovel (just ordered one from Amazon, a post-Christmas present to myself).

Yet I managed to make our driveway drivable. Yes, it took some shoveling work. But it sure seems like Fred Meyer and other merchants could assign a few young studs or studettes to clear away the worst of the ice and snow in their parking lots.

Postal service not living up to its reputation. Our newspaper has been delivered every morning by car, no matter how bad the roads have been. But we didn't get any mail on Monday or Tuesday of this week.

Today I went into the Vista station to pick up our mail, wondering what happened to the "Neither rain nor snow, nor sleet nor dark of night shall stay these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds"?

Arriving a bit after noon, I was told that the carrier had already taken all of the undelivered mail for delivery today. But when the clerk checked on this, it turned out that our mail was still sitting at the post office.

So I grabbed it and drove home in our Prius on almost completely bare roads.

A small North Carolina newspaper was asked about mail delivery during bad weather and published an informative Q & A. Here's part of the answer.

One of the ways they [USPS] are saving money is by using Contract Delivery Service providers. Contract delivery service is performed by one of three types of carriers; rural, city or contract. CDS carriers are not USPS employees but are independent contractors, often unionized, providing service on specific routes. They are not bound by the Postman's Creed and can elect when and where they deliver based on their own assessment of conditions. If they feel your driveway is too slick and they don't drive a 4-wheel drive vehicle they do not have to deliver your mail.

Well, this probably explains why a couple of inches of snow resulted in a decidedly unswift completion of our carrier's appointed round.

To be fair, this is the first time in eighteen years of living in the south Salem hills that we haven't had our mail delivered when it was supposed to be.

I think we have a different carrier now -- a woman in a Subaru wagon, rather than our previous guy in an old Jeep Wrangler. He could get through anything.

It seems to me that if you're going to contract for mail delivery in a hilly rural Marion County area, you should be prepared to drive on some snow and ice. With tire chains, any car could have navigated the roads in our neighborhood, but I guess putting them on was too much trouble for our carrier.

OK, just a few hours away from Christmas. Got to start getting into my Jesus (or Buddha) like loving mode. Enough grumbling.

Oh, can't resist one last grouch: National Weather Service, after praising your forecasts earlier in this post, a pretty healthy snow shower just came by. I took our SUV up to the end of our driveway and barely made it up the incline.

There weren't any weather alerts or warnings for the mid-Willamette Valley today, though you did correctly forecast a possible inch of snow for our zip code (97306).

I suspect some drivers were lulled into complacency by the rainy almost 40 degree weather earlier today and got caught in some slippery stuff this evening.

Not a big deal, just a last opportunity to express my inner Grinch.

Let's block off the Columbia Gorge

After having watched countless TV weatherperson explanations about why Portland and the Willamette Valley are locked in a record-breaking snow and ice spell ("worst storm since 1968...40 years!") the solution is obvious:

Block off the goddamn Columbia Gorge.That's where the cold air keeps coming from.

I wouldn't have needed to put on and take off tire chains several times this week if it weren't for the gap between western and eastern Oregon that keeps on funneling frigid winds into the Portland area, and thence down into the usually temperate central valley.

Normally, as a card carrying 1000 Friends of Oregon member, I support preserving the environment.

But I also like being able to drive into Salem without slipping and sliding, and having our electricity stay on.

The final straw came when I took our dog for a walk this evening and discovered that when a large canine who has a decided tendency to pull on the leash is placed on an ice-covered road, the human holding the other end of the leash will be on the edge of his feet during a two mile meander under a freezing starry sky.

So when I got home, fed up with having to deal with cold air that should have the good sense to stay where it belongs on the other side of the Cascades, I did some research.

Not much, because I'd already made my mind up that a gate needs to be shut across the Columbia Gorge at the beginning of winter. A few seconds of Googling gave me a scientific rationale.

An impressively titled study: "The Structure and Dynamics of Columbia Gorge Gap Flow Revealed by High-Resolution Numerical Modeling."
Download Columbia Gorge wind study (large PDF file)

I couldn't understand it. But all I needed to make my case for the Gorge Gate was this introductory graphic.
 

"Great impact on large 1 million plus population. Wind, frigid temperature, snow, freezing rain."

Exactly. So why do we keep putting up with this crap?

Obama is looking for large infrastructure projects to revive the economy. Constructing a gigantic gate across the gorge that shuts off the wind flow when it threatens to cause me to put on tire chains down here in Salem sounds like an excellent way to spend a few tens of billions of dollars.

More or less. I haven't worked out the cost. Nor how to build the gate. Or what the environmental consequences (aside from warmer air for me and other western Oregonians) would be.

I leave those minor details to others.

All I know is that more snow is forecast for Christmas Eve and we've got dinner reservations on the 25th for the vegetarian buffet at Salem's terrific Marco Polo Global Restaurant.

So build the Gorge Gate! Like, tomorrow. Or soon thereafter.

Dikes to keep out the North Sea have worked for the Dutch. No reason why the Willamette Valley can't have an air dike to keep out air from eastern Oregon.

Build, baby, build!

No snow in south Salem: joy!

Usually we habitually bored Salemites feel inferior to the way cooler Portlanders to our north. But today I've been happy to gaze at our outdoor thermometer and watch it hover around 37 degrees -- where it is even now, at 6:30 pm.

From watching Portland TV (but not KATU, curses be upon you) I know that most people in the metro area wish they could be less cool in a climatic sense at the moment.

Those damn gorge winds are bringing you much more snowy and icy precipitation results compared to Salem and points south.

Seemingly the tug of war between cold air funneled into the valley from the gorge and the push of warmer air coming from the new storm is being played out just a ways north of us.

Hope it stays that way.

I've been happy to listen to rain on the roof, having already done a usual winter's worth of snow and ice shoveling the past week. And it isn't even officially winter yet.

Earlier in the week it looked like there'd be no end to the arctic air mass hanging over the northwest. A series of snow storms was in the forecast, highly unusual for western Oregon.

Which got me to thinking about global climate change -- how quickly it could happen. What if usually temperate western Oregon went into a deep freeze like we've had the past week?

And didn't come out of it.

An article in Fortune, "Cloudy With a Chance of Chaos," talked about how the climate control system could be more like an on-off switch than a dial. Things could change fast.

How bad could it get? Imagine Europe suffering floods and heat waves on a vastly greater scale than those endured in 2002 and 2003, while northern regions experience intermittent deep freezes as atmospheric and ocean circulations struggle to find new equilibrium. At the same time, droughts and floods not seen since ancient times would afflict some of the most densely populated regions on earth.

So we in the frigid northwest should look upon our unusual recent weather as a wake-up call to get serious about global climate change. "Unusual" could become "usual" if we sit on our carbon-soaked hands.

Also, let's not forget who we turn to when widespread problems hit: government. Public employees are out there plowing and sanding roads. They're also getting people around on public transportation when private cars are stuck in driveways.

It's funny (but not really) how those who gripe about high taxes are the first to complain when government has trouble responding to an emergency.

Well, duh, dude. If you want a road plowed quickly, you've got to pay for it.

Europeans are a lot smarter than us in that regard. They understand that pooling money together through taxes and buying public benefits is wiser than individuals frittering away their extra income on inessentials.

I can tell you that we'd have been pleased to pay a bit more in taxes if Marion County could make it possible for us to get into Salem without chains by sanding and plowing Lake and Liberty roads.

We need government. We need to deal with human-caused global climate change. When the snow and ice go away in Oregon, those truths won't.

Fear and trembling in our 2008 Christmas letter

It's that time of year ... when I shamelessly plug our Christmas letter: "2008 Holiday Greetings from Laurel and Brian."
Download 2008 Christmas Letter

I talk about the fear and trembling with which we approach the annual letter. By the time I get around to composing it, we've received Christmas cards from people who clearly are into way more interesting things than we are.

They travel to Machu Picchu. We manage to drive to central Oregon. They volunteer to build medical stations in central Africa. We use VISA to make charitable donations online.

So I try to make our mundanity into something special. And rely on self-deprecating humor. From this year's letter:

The only thing more boring than hearing about someoneʼs psychedelic drug experiences back in the 60s (just got an idea for next yearʼs unexciting Holiday Letter) is why they think a Mac is better than a PC. Luckily for you there isnʼt much room left on this page.

On the self-promotion front, I was pleased to find one of my past works of literary holiday art featured as a "creative Christmas letter example" on Christmas Letter Tips.com.

Our 2001 Christmas Letter is described as "a funny reflection on one family's year, as told through stories of their newest family member, a dog." It can be found in our Christmas Letter collection, here.

My favorite part of our 2008 letter is the photo of me holding my granddaughter. Old and young, yang and yin, blue and red. Thanks to my daughter for capturing the Taoist moment.

Curses on both KATU and DISH network

Super irritating... to start our nightly recording of local news on Portland's KATU (Channel 2) and find an endless loop of a DISH network notification that we can kiss our ABC subscription goodbye because DISH no longer has an agreement to carry KATU.

DISH says it's the greed of Fisher Communications that's at fault.

KATU says that DISH network should be willing to pay more for it's programming.

Here's what I say: to hell with both of you.

DISH network, you canceled without notice a channel that's been included in our package since we signed up with your satellite service. If we knew it could be eliminated at any time, we might have gone with DIRECTV.

If someone is thinking of signing up with DISH network, think again. Keep in mind that DISH can take away a favorite channel and not give you any warning.

KATU and Fisher Communications, we've been loyal viewers of the 11 o'clock news for many years. Plus other ABC shows. Now we'll be watching KOIN or KGW. I assume you'll be notifying your advertisers about this.

If someone is thinking of buying ad time on KATU, think again. Keep in mind that KATU can lose a significant share of its viewership and not give you any warning.

Here's the emails that I just sent to the CEO of DISH network and the general manager of KATU. A pox on both their TV houses.

To DISH network:

Yes, we're upset...at DISH network. Every night we record the KATU 11 o'clock news. A storm is coming, but we don't know the details about it because all we could watch was your irritating endless loop about the KATU cancellation.

Which happened with no notice. Thankfully, Qwest has been sending us offers for switching to DIRECTV -- which we can get with a discount since we have DSL and local service.

Believe me, this will happen soon if KATU isn't back. And as an active blogger, I'm looking forward to letting other DISH subscribers across the country know that their channels can be cancelled at any moment without notice, and they should switch to Direct TV now if they're smart.

This is a bone-headed move on your part. And very un-Christmas like. Thanks for a crappy holiday present -- taking away our favorite local TV station. DISH has lost our confidence and I can't wait to switch to a reliable satellite provider.

To KATU:

I can't tell you how irritating it was to find that our DISH DVR didn't record the KATU news this evening, which we wanted to watch to see a forecast of the coming storm, but rather got an endlessly repeated loop about your station's greed.

I don't know whose fault this is. I've told DISH that we'll switch to DIRECTV if KATU isn't back soon.

But you should know that our long-time loyalty to KATU news is gone now. We like your news team best of the Portland stations. However, when your loyalty to satellite viewers is so minimal, we'll have no regrets about switching over to KOIN or KGW.

You should realize that once viewers are lost, they're tough to get back. And your advertisers should realize this also.

Shame on KATU for giving viewers like us such a lump of coal Christmas present: canceling our ABC programming.

Saving Salem through magical thinking

Depending on how the weather turns out tomorrow, my wife and I may be getting a We Saved Salem medal from the city fathers. Well, city mother -- since Janet Taylor is the mayor.

Why?

Because this afternoon we (actually, "me," since in our household sex role equality hasn't trickled down to putting chains on) got the Highlander Hybrid ready to tackle the six miles of icy south Salem roads separating us from essential winter storm supplies that we hadn't gotten on our first expedition.

Like, organic coffee beans.

I panicked when I made some pre-blogging coffee yesterday and realized that I wasn't going to be able to get through the week properly caffeinated.

Out here in the country we don't have an expresso stand in every farmer's field. That's one of the drawbacks of Oregon's land use system that could use some loosening up. Though I'm an avid environmentalist, I'm also a caffeine addict, and the bean trumps green for me.

There were other things on the list that I carried into the nearest Fred Meyer store after learning how long it takes to get into town at 20 mph rather than my usual...um, higher speed (I know for a fact that police read blogs).

But once Laurel and I got into Winter Storm Panic Mode, our two shopping carts quickly filled with way more stuff than we'd intended to get.

It was a lot of fun. And good for the economy.

Fun, because I enjoyed the camaraderie of being out with other parka-clad Salemites taking advantage of the last clear sunny (and freaking cold) day before more snow hits Oregon.

I found myself chatting with people I usually would have ignored, or been a lot less open with. All of us had navigated semi-treacherous streets to have the opportunity to crash grocery carts in the crowded Fred Meyer aisles.

Smiles seemed more common than usual, a jovial prelude to the forecasted storm.

I couldn't believe how many newly discovered "essentials" ended up in our carts. I'd wanted to get another gas container so we had more fuel for our generator in case the power went out.

Then I figured a siphon device to get gasoline out of our cars would be handy. And why not pick up another driveway-clearing shovel, since it seemed a bit lighter than the one I'd been using?

A box of raisin bran struck me as absolutely necessary to get through worsening weather.

Plus all sorts of other food items that health-conscious vegetarians like us can't get along without (eating a veggie-burger without a whole wheat bun -- a prospect too horrible to contemplate).

We made a couple of additional stops at the Great Harvest Bread Co. and Life Source Natural Foods before clanking our way back home at tire chain speed. Our decision to leave the dog at home was wise, since the cargo area and back seat both were filled up by the time we'd finished our panicked snow is coming! shopping spree.

The last thing I said to Laurel as we exited the natural food store was, "Now that we've bought so much storm stuff, for sure it won't turn out to be nearly as bad as expected."

The first thing I did after I unlocked the front door was to check for an updated KATU forecast on my laptop. What I found was quite a bit different from the pre-shopping prediction.

The coast and Salem are expected to reach above freezing Wednesday.  A wintry mix is expected at times along the coast tomorrow early morning before changing to all rain.   Salem will see morning snow develop and then warm above freezing during the day with a rain - wintry mix likely.

Not great, but quite a bit better than before.

When Laurel walked in, I told her "We did it! We've saved Salem! Our storm shopping paid off. Now it looks like there won't be as much snow -- all because we prepared for a lot of it."

Magical thinking. Hey, it works for me. Especially if Mayor Taylor comes through with those medals for us.

Oregon winter storm! Will we survive?!

The electricity is still on. Don't know for how long. Need to get this report out to the blogosphere while I still have a warm laptop.

Things are desperate for us here in Salem. I just checked: there's an inch of snow on the ground! And it's twenty-six degrees! Pray for us, rest of the country.

Because Oregon's Willamette Valley doesn't get much snow. So this storm is a shocker. Laurel and I are taking it seriously. Our lives -- or at least lifestyles -- are at stake.

Panic started to set in yesterday.

We'd been tuned in to the Storm Tracker bulletins on every Portland TV station. We knew what was coming: a couple of inches of snow! Below freezing temperatures! (and loads of exclamation marks in blog posts)

Our essential supplies seemed to be in order. Gas for generator to keep the laptop and DSL router going. Silk soymilk creamer to go with the coffee needed to write blog posts.

But then we took a closer look at the pantry. Yikes! Just a few organic walnuts. And only a few crumbs of raisin bran. I felt like the Donner Party, facing starvation.

Sure, we have an all-wheel-drive Highlander. And tire chains. But the natural food store is eight miles away! (winter storms bring out italics in addition to exclamation marks)

I got together an emergency bag: ski jacket, gloves, hat, rain pants, salted soybeans. Threw it in the back of the SUV along with the chains, which I'd practiced putting on. Got the wife and dog in the car so we'd live or die together. Set off for Life Source Natural Foods.

Made it fine.

Especially since it was sunny and forty degrees. Felt a little silly walking into the store dressed for an Everest expedition. But you can't be too careful when an inch or two of snow is on the way.

Some of it appeared this morning, which is when our winter ordeal really began.

I turned on the TV to see how panicked the Channel 2 Storm Tracker team wanted me to be. Plus, to watch Meet the Press while I ate my Sunday pancakes.

Yikes! (redux)

The DISH network receiver wasn't working. Then I remembered: the final episode of Survivor is on tonight! The Donner Party didn't have to deal with that -- just minor stuff like deciding whether to survive by eating dead bodies.

I got up on the roof. Brushed some snow off the satellite dish. Wondered how much more God was going to make me endure. Got an answer when I realized that I'd missed recording all of Meet the Press.

Shit! Now I really had a winter storm story to tell my grandchild. Assuming I could bribe her enough to listen to it.

At the moment we're in the eye of the storm. Well, actually according to the Storm Tracker folks the storm is over -- until a new one rolls in middle of the week. And that could bring another inch or two of snow.

It makes me feel better to know that people in Minnesota and New Hampshire realize what we're going through here in usually temperate Oregon. (It's now 25.7 degrees; that's a .3 degree drop since I started writing this post -- I think I can hear the wolves starting to circle.)

Portland blogger Jack Bogdanski has been keeping my spirits up with his storm updates. He started with "Breaking News: Snow in Portland" and now informs us "Weather excitement intensifies."

Portland's storm miseries appear to be taking a turn for the worse, as it appears that it is now getting dark. The darkness is expected to cut visibility in many areas, and these conditions may persist until morning.

When it'll be a brighter day, the Storm Gods willing. And as long as I'm appealing to a higher power, please let the 57 year old physics teacher dude win Survivor.

State says "stop" to Measure 37 subdivision

Last month federal judge Owen Panner ruled that some property owners in southern Oregon had a binding contract with Jackson County over their county waivers of land use regulations under Measure 37.

That was an early Christmas present for Oregonians in Action and other opponents of Measure 49, which rolled back Measure 37 in order to protect irreplaceable farm, forest, and groundwater limited land.

They hoped this would open the door again for subdivisions to sprout where crops and trees grow now. Pave it over could replace Keep Oregon green as a state motto.

Well, not so fast.

A few days ago Richard Whitman, director of the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) sent a letter to the chair of the Jackson County Board of Commissioners.
Download jackson_county_ferns_comment_letter_121008.pdf

He said that a "stop" sign needs to be placed in the way of a proposed 12-lot subdivision on land zoned for exclusive farm use.

Whitman makes a lot of sense (even with some typos in the letter). He points out that were a county land use law to be waived, state law still remains in effect.

In sum, under [t]he terms of Measure 49, applicable court decisions, and LCDC rules and irrespective of the status of the county's Measure 37 waivers, the county may not lawfully approve a land use permit for the proposed subdivision because that subdivision in [sic] unlawful under state statutes and rules and the state's waiver of those statutes and rules is no longer in effect.

When he says "no longer in effect," this refers to rulings by the Oregon Supreme Court, Court of Appeals, and Land Use Board of Appeals that affirmed the primacy of Measure 49 over Measure 37.

However, the Oregon Supreme Court has held that the state's waivers under Measure 37 are no longer in effect. Corey v. DLCD, 344 Or 457 (2008)  ("Measure 49 by its terms deprives Measure 37 waivers -- and all orders disposing of Measure 37 claims -- of any continuing viability, with a single exception that does not apply to plaintiffs' claim.

Thus, after December 6, 2007 (the effective date of Measure 49), the final order at issue in the present case had no legal effect.).  The Court of Appeals also has held that any rights an owner had under Measure 37 are converted to rights under Measure 49, and must be analyzed under that law.  Frank v. DLCD, 217 Or App 498 (2008).

Measure 37 waivers are gone. Vanished. Non-existent.

The only way a waiver can be brought back to life is if a claimant's development is determined to be vested under common law (the "single exception" in the passage from Whitman's letter quoted above).

This isn't the end of the legal wrangling over what Judge Panner's decision means for Measure 37 claimants.

However, DLCD has cast additional light on the situation, and I'm hopeful that Whitman's legal reasoning will prevail in the end.

On my way to Create Space publishing

In the old days, writing a book and getting it published was a crazy, frustrating, time-consuming, and often expensive proposition.

Now, much less so.

Especially if a writer comes to grips with reality (not the easiest thing to do) and gives up the fantasy of his or her work of literary art being picked up by a major publisher. Then, becoming a best seller.

The chances of that happening range between zero and next to nothing.

I know. I've had three books published. Each was better than average. None were accepted by a publisher in a traditional way.

I've become a believer in print on demand publishing -- where an author keeps as much control as possible over his book, spends a minimal amount, and accepts that online sales via Amazon, et.al. (plus his own web site) is how people will buy the book.

No, it won't be featured in a display at Borders. But it'll be available for sale anywhere in the world someone has an Internet connection.

I'm in the midst of changing how my most recent book, "Return to the One," is published. I'm canceling my agreement with Unlimited Publishing and moving to another print on demand service.

Probably Create Space. It was suggested by my book designer after I told him that I was thinking of shifting to BookSurge, another Amazon subsidiary.

Create Space is a no fee service. An author/self-publisher doesn't share a royalty with Create Space. You get what's left after subtracting the cost of printing a book and a book seller's discount (40% with Amazon, I think, but I could be wrong).

I'll earn considerably more from a sale after moving to Create Space, because I've been on a 50-50 royalty agreement with Unlimited Publishing.

Amazon is to online book selling as Microsoft is to operating systems: the big gorilla that many people love to hate. Well, personally I have much better feelings about Amazon, so I've got no problem with jumping to its Create Space service.

I suspect that Create Space books are treated a bit better on Amazon than books published via another print on demand company.

This theory is borne out by a piece by someone who, like me, moved to Create Space after having a book published elsewhere.

I remember reading an article about Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, which stated that the original name of Amazon was to be “Abracadabra”. Well I was soon about to see why. I went online and OK’d my proof at CreateSpace and as fast as you could say “Abracadabra” the Ingram/Lightning listing was gone from Amazon and replaced by the CreateSpace listing.

Poof, the listing was changed, although they left the review. They were a little overzealous with this change because they also bumped me off the site as the publisher and changed it to CreateSpace even though I was the publisher and owned the ISBN. While there is never any human contact with anyone at Amazon I complained, via email form letter on the CreateSpace website, and the publisher was corrected within a few days.

Of course I do not know this because anyone contacted me to apologize for the mistake. The computer probably couldn’t figure out which form letter response to send so it sent none. I found out by going back each day and seeing for myself.

Meanwhile, the minute I saw the listing change, I ordered another copy from Amazon just to see who printed it. I forgot to mention that the availability changed from available in 2-4 weeks to available immediately in that same split second. I was able to order with my free 2 day shipping so the book showed up not too many days after the first book I ordered.

A quick glance confirmed that the book was definitely not a Lightning produced book. In the blink of an eye, my book changed from POD non-returnable printed at Lightning Source to POD returnable printed by Book Surge. Which do you think that Amazon prefers? Should Ingram/Lightning and all the non-returnable short discount POD publishers be worried? You tell me.

After I get my book uploaded to Create Space at the end of the year I'll share how things are going. Hopefully, smoothly.

Let's put atheism back into Christmas

We're not Christians. We've stopped putting up a Christmas tree. We don't like Christmas music, especially songs that mention Jesus or God.

We're also patriotic Americans. We believe in the separation of church and state. So we applaud the Freedom from Religion Foundation's placement of an atheist display in the Washington state capitol.

Who can disagree with what it says?

“At this season of the Winter Solstice may reason prevail. There are no gods, no devils, no angels, no heaven or hell. There is only our natural world. Religion is but myth and superstition that hardens hearts and enslaves minds.”

Well, lots of people. Most people.

Which is why it's so important that the display have its place alongside a nativity scene. Public places, like a state capitol, can't be limited to only private citizens who hold majority views.

Christians are free to worship as they like, without interference, in their homes and churches. But if they want to promote their religious belief in the public square, they should expect some dissenting company.

I was glad to see that the man who got the state to allow the nativity scene says that the atheist display is fine.

He feels that people can make up their own minds about what to believe. That's a broad-minded Christian attitude. Contrast that with what I heard a dogmatic true believer say in a radio interview.

I believe in Jesus Christ. If you don't that's OK, because you're going to fry like a Jimmy Dean pork sausage.

Oh, how loving.

That's why I'm not religious: I can't believe in a God who punishes people for being rational, questioning, and non-dogmatic.

So let's bring atheism back into Christmas. Pagans started this holiday and we shouldn't forget the true meaning of it -- which has nothing to do with Christ.

Spend your money before the financial meltdown takes it

[Pseudo-legal disclaimer: This blog post is being written under the simultaneous influence of a strong cup of coffee and a glass of pinot noir. The financial advice it contains should be considered questionable, at best, unless you are under the influence of a more powerful psycho-active substance. Then likely it'll make as much sense to you as it does to me.]

I just came up with a great financial recovery plan for the United States. Even more, the world!

People need to realize that if they spend their money themselves, they can beat the stock and housing markets to the punch. Meaning, if anybody is going to make our money disappear, it should be you and me.

We need to take control of our own financial meltdown. Don't let distant markets and shadowy traders reduce your net worth to a fraction of what it used to be.

You can do it yourself! Get empowered!

This marvelous economic insight came to me this afternoon as I was leaning against the doorway of our downstairs bathroom, listening to my wife and Darren Gollakner (a talented guy who makes cool stuff) discuss remodeling plans.

Since we'd already remodeled our upstairs bathroom, which I mostly use, I felt detached from the conversation. It didn't matter much to me what they came up with.

But being the Hines household's payer of bills and prime overseer of our steadily shrinking retirement portfolio, my inner cash register was paying attention to the cost of the remodeling project that was being hatched before my otherwise mostly uncaring eyes.

Then I heard myself blurting out to Darren, "We've decided to give our money to you before the stock market can take it."

Laurel and Darren looked at me quizzically and went back to their plan-hatching.

However, as so often happens to me (this is why I'm a blogger), I was immediately struck by the brilliance of the fleeting thought that had darted through my mind.

Now, the more I thought about it -- on a subsequent dog walk -- the more logical holes I could identify in my one-sentence economic recovery plan. So naturally I've decided to ignore those holes and focus on my intuitive, though possibly illusory, sense of genius.

Economists and legislators are worried sick that people have stopped their spending ways. Americans are afraid to buy stuff when they see home values, stock prices, and jobs disappearing.

Well, they need to ponder (not too much, and preferably after consuming a stiff drink) my profound advice: Get rid of your money on your own, before something else takes it.

Look, if you've already spent your money on stuff you want, you can't lose it. It's already gone! You've got no worries!

(Also, no money, but let's not worry about that for the moment; have another drink and this blog post will make more sense to you.)

Plus, you've got the stuff, like a remodeled bathroom, that the money you no longer have brought you.

So your preemptive strike against an additional financial downturn -- spend it before you lose it -- has succeeded on two fronts: (1) You've inoculated yourself against a decline in your net worth by reducing it on your own, and (2) You've bought stuff that you can enjoy while eating rice and beans and waiting for your house to be foreclosed.

What's the downside?

(Again, please focus on the big picture here, which will be clear if you don't think too much about extraneous economic details, such as your personal bankruptcy.)

Well, I'm pleased that I've been able to do my part in getting our country back on track. If President-elect Obama's financial recovery team wants to use my ideas, they're most welcome.

All I ask is that the strategy be called the Brian Hines Spend It Before You Lose It And Make America Prosperous Again Plan (wordy, but I'm open to edits so long as the "Brian Hines" part stays).

Wow! I created a web site. Macs rule!

Ever since I flew the Windows coop and embraced a Macintosh again, I've been drawn to extol the virtues of my beloved MacBook (here, here, here, and here).

And now I'm doing it again, with two exclamation points in a blog post title.

That reflects how thrilled I am to have put up a revamped BrianHines.com web site -- something I've been meaning to do for a long time, but kept putting off owing to how tough it's been for me to find easy-to-use web site creation software for a PC.

I've tried quite a few programs, such as WebEasy (doesn't really live up to its name) and FrontPage (a mediocre Microsoft offering). I could manage to get a web site up and running with them, but it sure wasn't fun.

Then I entered the magical realm of Apple, where a smile is on every computer user's face and software flowers bloom with each keystroke.

I explored the Macintosh web site creation possibilities with the aid of my reliable cyberspace guide, Google. Eventually I settled on Sandvox. Karelia software had a nice video introduction and I got to try out a demo download before buying.

Sure, I used one of their stock templates for my site. And I haven't tried to do anything fancy.

But that doesn't take away from a simple fact: I got BrianHInes.com designed and uploaded in just a few hours, enjoyably. Things go more smilingly on a Mac, for sure.

Whatever problems I encountered were of my own making, pretty much. Figuring that now I should have the site hosted by a Macintosh friendly company, rather than GoDaddy, I signed up with MacHighway.

Their support team has answered my questions promptly and competently. I got a bit confused about the process of changing my domain Nameservers to point to the new site. Tyler cleared things up for me.

I'm going to enjoy fiddling with my web site, since that's so easy to do with Sandvox. This morning I decided to add a page view counter, which already is showing "57."

A bunch of those views are mine, checking to see how many views I have. (Ooh! Make that 58!) Well, like I say on a freshly added item on the sidebar of my two blogs:

Take a look at my web site, which contains information about a subject of great interest to me: me.

Big news coming on Sarah Palin's pregnancy

Thanks to Jack Bogdanski, I've had my interest rekindled in the Sarah Palin fake pregnancy story.

His post led me to a titillating "More coming soon!" on the Palin's Deceptions blog.

Over the Thanksgiving holiday, one of my very hard working research assistants has uncovered a piece of evidence which may well turn out to be the final nail in the coffin. I believe it demonstrates conclusively that Gov. Sarah Palin was never pregnant. It has nothing to do with Bristol, or Willow, or anyone else. Because it is so critical, I am proceeding slowly with this one... talking to my attorney among other things. But watch the blog over the next 24-48 hours. You won't be disappointed.

Oh, I have been...watching the blog. Forty-eight hours is up tomorrow night. Hope there won't be a letdown.

I scrolled through all of the comments on the teaser post, looking for hints of what might be coming. This seems to be a plausible guess:

If you ned to check with an attorney, I am guessing that you have some concerns regarding the publication of medical records which show that Sarah Palin had either a tubal ligation or a hysterectomy before Trig was born, which would be conclusive evidence unrelated to Bristol or anyone else. Since you appear confident that you will be able to make the information public in the next 24-48 hours, I therefore also assume that the information you and your assistant have uncovered has previously been made public, perhaps as part of a long ago medical records disclosure by Sarah Palin when she ran for some other public office or was appointed to some other public position. If this is the case, it is quite commendable for you to be so careful,and bravo for your outstanding detective work!

Though I'd love to see Palin caught in a lie, there would be a downside: she'd be much less likely to run for president in 2012.

The more she's adored by the Republican base, the more I like it. Sarah Palin is unpopular with all but the most right-wing voters.

She dragged down McCain, and she'd drag down herself if she got the Republican nomination next time around.

(Here's a sample of the extensive Palin pregnancy research conducted by the Palin's Deceptions blogger. The associated website has more juicy details.)