No debate: Obama won the debate

There's been endless post-game discussion about who won last night's presidential debate, most of it meaningless.

Wow, no big surprise. Republican spinmeisters claim that McCain kicked Obama's butt, while their Democratic counterparts spin the opposite way.

Much more persuasive is what polls and focus groups say. Almost universally, Obama won. And on McCain's home field, foreign policy – which was the focus of the debate.

Daily Kos has a good summary of polling results. Conclusion:

The focus groups picked up soft, but important data on the debate, and the snap polls show an Obama win. Focus groups pick up the "likeability" piece, which polls do not. Obama won that going away.

A CBS News poll had Obama winning 39-24, with 37 percent calling it a draw. Significantly, more independent voters saw Obama as the winner.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll had Obama on top 51-38. He even had an edge on national security, supposedly McCain's strength.

FiveThirtyEight analyzes why voters thought Obama won.

McCain's essential problem is that his fundamental strength – his experience -- is specifically not viewed by voters as carrying over to the economy. And the economy is pretty much all that voters care about these days.

MediaCurves found that independents gave Obama higher marks on every issue area: financial recovery plan, economic plans, government spending, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Russia, likelihood of another 9-11 attack, and who won the debate.

Today's Gallup Daily poll has Obama up nationally 49% to 45%. At the moment FiveThirtyEight gives him a 79% chance of becoming president.

It'll be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next week. My prediction: Obama is going to increase his lead.

And after Sarah Palin embarrasses herself next Thursday in the vice-presidential debate, Obama and Biden are going to move further ahead.

Comments

[Rain]

Palin is being kept out of sight. I think her interview was why McCain threw his little show out there-- to distract the clueless from getting clued into her complete inability to run this country. Likely they are working on her all this week to ready her. How do you ready someone who didn't have an interest in any of the government business other than getting pork for her own state? Her debate is already set up to limit her answers to short ones, not allow for explanations (where she gets in trouble).

Of course, I agreed on Obama winning the debate but it's because I am idea, not emotion oriented. Obama works to communicate concepts and ideas to work on problems which is less popular with those who want to see debates as jousts.

[Harry Vanderpool]

Here is a bit of advice for Barry:

Barry, when you have an idea that you wish to express, please think about it and begin clearly with the first word.
Yes, we are very proud of your grasp of the vowels, but it is not nessisary to recite them in doubles, triples before each sentance.

"AA AA, EE EE, II II II, OO OO, UU UU,,,,,,UH uh,,, now lets be clear about this...."

YES PLEASE! By all means, lets be clear without the vowel resitation.

Go ahead and use vowels, but please wrap some consanants around them to give them meaning.

For gods sake, you sound like my air compressor starting up!

Think about what you want to say, and then start with the first word.

Then maybe all of the hype by your followers about you as a "great speaker" will be true.

AA AA, EE EE, II II II, OO OO, UU UU,,,,,,UH uh,,, thats all I have to say about that!

Isn't that annoying?

[Rain]

Harry, do you rename your friends like GW Bush does? So they tell you they prefer to be called Rebecca but you call them Becky? That's all I have to say about that except is your real name Harold?

[Rain]

Oh and Obama is not known for 'winning' debates. He had his clock cleaned by Hillary in almost all of them. He thinks before he speaks, actually listens to the question, doesn't have canned answers, and it works against the debate format where it's meant to be fast with little thought at the moment. Winning these political debates is about a good soundbite that everybody repeats ad nauseum for years afterward. Or apparently getting emotional and making voters emphatize with you-- forgetting whether you agree their stand on issues.

[Harry Vanderpool]

Rain Said:

>>> That's all I have to say about that except is your real name Harold?<<<

No. The name on my birth certificate is Harry.
The name on Barry's is Barry.

Otherwise, yes. I have had many friends when I was in the workforce that called me Harold, Harvey, Hank, Hair, etc....
Some of them for the entire length of our association, spanning years.
I always took it affectionatly.(sp)
But thanks for asking. :-)

[Rain]

I have one of those birth names (sounds like nickname but is not). I am not sure what birth certificate you saw but the one I saw on Daily Kos last spring had his birth name as Barack. He says he's named that for his father. He did go through high school as Barry to try and fit in. Barack is a rather unusual name unless you are into the Bible and then there is the Barak who was Deborah's general...

At any rate, somewhere along the way Obama chose to be called Barack. I had a friend who I met as Nickie but years later, she decided she preferred Nichole which was her birth name.

I think to call him Barry is done to demean him since he has chosen to be Barack. I don't know your motives, of course, but Bush renames people with a nickname of his choosing and I think it's done to take their power. To me, the name we ask to be called by should be the name people use... Incidentally, I gave myself the name Rain because of where I live and my love of nature. It's not the one on my birth certificate. It's still polite and nice to call me Rain if I ask... oh and... Harry is a fine name. My grandfather was a Harry.