Barack up. Lars down. A good day.

This was a good way to start the first weekend of summer.

First, my political soul, rubbed raw by seven plus years of brushing up against Bushian irritations, was soothed with the balm of fall election anticipation.

My visit to the intriguing FiveThirtyEight site (that's the number of electors in the electoral college) was spurred by a Newsweek article about its founder, Nate Silver, a baseball statistics geek.

Having honed his skills in successfully predicting baseball outcomes, Silver has turned his attention to politics.

Currently he's projecting that Obama will win 334 of those 538 electoral votes. The betting line is 74% for an Obama win, a 26% chance for McCain. Popular vote: 5% Obama margin.

Sounds good to me, no matter how far it is to November. I browsed through enough of Silver's FAQs to be impressed with his methodology. Something about regression coefficients and all that stuff.

Then, I reveled in a T.A. Barnhart post on Blue Oregon, "Jonathon Alter smacks down Lars." Click on the link and you can see Portland's most irritating conservative talk show host, Lars Larson, taken down many notches. Barnhart says:

Lars Larson makes the same mistake on Dan Abrams' show that the radio blowhard did with Chris Matthews, and it's just as embarrassing. He keeps blathering on with no regard to facts, which Portland listeners are too familiar with, and he keeps trying to run roughshod over those who call him on his crap.

Lars turns out to be much more of a talk show wimp when he isn't in control of the microphone.

I hugely enjoyed watching him being put in his place, unable to resort to dominating an argument with an uninformed monologue instead of persuasive facts and logic.

Lars' notion that Michelle Obama hates America is ridiculous. When pressed to defend it, he couldn't. Typical right-wing talk show modus operandi.

Another bad example is Mark Levin, who I listen to once in a while to test my ability to listen to pompous bullshit without having the top of my head fly off.

What strikes me the most about guys like Larson and Levin is how cowardly they are. Lars makes a big deal of his concealed weapon permit. Probably that's because he'd run like a chicken from a real fight.

He does that all the time on the air, cutting people off who are besting him in a conversation. Levin is even worse. He often responds to a caller who's getting the better of him with "Get off the line, you moron!" Then he cuts the guy off.

Wow, what a man. He can push a "kill" button. Here he is in action. I can't figure out why anyone would listen to him regularly, given how irritating he is.

I guess if you don't have a political leg to stand on, you're drawn to lean on other people who are similarly crippled.

(Update: Here's Loaded Orygun's take on the Lars Larson video.)

Comments

[Condor]

I can understand the distaste for Bush, but what has Obama done to EARN the belief that he's "the One"? I don't get it. Please clue me in. I want to know what he has DONE that would indicate that he has the gravitas to handle Iraq, the Iranians, the collapsing dollar, crazy oil prices, the recession and Rosie O'Donnell?

[Harry Vanderpool]

I have to agree with Condor.
We must not forget the effort it has taken to produce a nation such as ours.
We cannot forget the many lives lost that changed Japan and Germany's direction into a livable society.
But we can loose it all in very short order.
Niceness is nice!
But outside of our borders, there is very little niceness in government.
Although I have been a registered democrat all of my voting life, Abummer will not get my vote.
Liz and I worked VERY HARD to pay of our farm and business.
A vote for Abummer and his lackadaisical defence policy, puts our entire life & world in jepordy.
Don't forget that we can loose it all in short order.
Look back through our nation's history; did we make gains through weakness?
Look at cival rights; did our citizens gain ground by talking?
Answer: NO!
Ask Rosa Parks.
This is not Americn Idol.
We are not voting for the brightest smile, or the warm, fuzzy speech.
We are voting for Commander & Chief.
I hope all Americans reconize the gravity of their choice.
Lets give our grandchildren a shot at the "Land of the free, and home of the BRAVE".
Freedom, (unfortunatly) is not free.
We owe it to our grandchildren to protect our land and freedom.
Don't waste your valuable vote.
My $.02

[Rain]

And what has McCain done? He's been a POW who acted courageously but also followed the rules. Not getting into his personal morality, which I tend to think isn't important but a lot of the right does think matters, in the public morality area, he got involved with the Keating 5 scandal and was one of those who got out of it without going to jail but certainly not without some questions regarding his connections (which go on today with his staff). His terrible temper which even he admits to having could leave anybody, who really cared, to wonder how that would work when he had real power to use.

McCain was wrong about Iraq initially. His website ignores all of his earlier misjudgments on Iraq and starts with when he began to push for a surge. Today, despite his saying the surge succeeded, it apparently only succeeded if we keep a permanent police force there for who knows how many years-- anywhere between 5 and 100 according to his own comments.

If it has succeeded, it would mean the Iraqis are now capable of governing themselves-- including as President Maliki says sometimes that they might want us to go home. You know the Malaki who is friends with Iran. And now that the oil companies want to go back in, what do you think are the odds that a President McCain would leave Iraq at all-- although given how he changes his positions, who knows for sure?

I could go on with McCain's mistakes, his wrong beliefs, his flip-flops on issues to the point nobody (including the right) actually could know what he'd do if he got in, but there really isn't a point. People who say they have no idea what Obama has accomplished don't want to know and have already made up their mind about McCain irregardless of the facts.

With the internet, the information is out there (on both men's accomplishments and careers), but it takes being willing to sift through a lot of propaganda to get to facts. It takes time. It's easier to just follow some political agenda, like Lars Larson pushes, then you don't listen to anything that contradicts it. (

Just incidentally Ronald Reagan had had less elected office experience, no experience in DC, when he became the hero of the right and a two-term president. Yeah, I know.. that's different.)

We too are life-long democrats, who have worked hard to pay off the farm and maintain the family business. We want someone with a proven track of living his statements, having strategic insight to become educated in life and law, successfully organizing his campaign and can respond with thoughtful answers. That is why we support Obama.

With four grandchildren, our concerns go beyond the immediate to a leader who is willing to think long-term answers to difficult problems that are not without cost. I hear McCain pander how he would forgo the gas tax for the summer. How would he pay for the road work? Or do those who think he had a great answer no longer use highways?

If Obama gets in, and if he truly tries to work on the problems this country is facing, you will hear screaming from the right and the left. The mess we are in right now will not be easily straightened up. I will stop now because I know for those who have their minds made up, there's no real discussion possible but if you want to know what Obama has accomplished, look for it. I have written about it on my own blog and so has Andrew Sullivan with much more detail on Daily Dish. It's there if you don't just listen to people like Lars Larson who really only care about their spiel. I have also seen him on television and he doesn't even really listen to what is being said. It's all about getting his chance to repeat the current talking points from the right wing.

[Brian]

Rain says it well. Nobody is perfect. No presidential candidate is perfect.

But if you're happy with where the country is now...

--$4 gas, with no coherent energy policy in sight

--4000 deaths in Iraq, with no coherent end of war strategy in sight

--huge deficits to pass on to our children and grandchildren, with no coherent budget balancing policy in sight

--Al Qaida and the Taliban still flourishing in Pakistan and Afghanistan, with no coherent terrorism fighting strategy in sight

--habeas corpus and other constitutional guarantees being thrown out out the window, with no return to democratic principles in sight

Then, by all means, vote for McCain. He's promising more of the same. Me, I expect more of our country. That's why I support Obama -- because I love the United States, and I'm tired of slipping into second-rate status.

[Condor]

Rain,

I didn't ask about McCain. We already know about McCain's weaknesses, his duplicity, his temper. We KNOW who he is.

I want to know WHO is Obama? What has he done (not what he says or writes) to prove he can handle the job better?

Rain said: "We want someone with a proven track of living his statements, having strategic insight to become educated in life and law, successfully organizing his campaign and can respond with thoughtful answers. That is why we support Obama."

"He lives his statements"? Yes, Obama lives his statements because all he is is a statement. He is a glib, strong public speaker, has a law degree, and was a senator for a couple of years. That qualifies him for president?

Everything is ass-backwards when all the people with real accomplishment won't run because they know better and the fast talkers charm their way into office.

I think Obama's appeal is simply that he isn't Bush. There are a lot of people who aren't Bush. I think it's a shame we end up with this unproven neophyte.

Until convinced otherwise I am going with the known McCain, not the unknown Obama.

[Rain]

You certainly have that right, condor. We all vote how we believe is best hopefully for the nation, ourselves and the world. I think we do know a lot about McCain but for me it's all bad. We can know more about Obama but it takes research. The info on what he has done (besides run a phenomenally successful campaign) is available online. Electing anybody for this powerful office is a risk. They can promise anything and get in there and it all changes. Remember compassionate conservative. But I would say what Brian did. If you like what Bush has done and is doing, which about 28% of Americans apparently do, then you will vote for McCain as clearly he promises more of the same-- if he doesn't change his mind tomorrow...

This isn't about Bush as such but it is about policies he has set in place. It's going to take a lot to change direction for those of us who want to see that happen. For people who like the debt, the taking away of constitutional rights, the dictator president, why by all means, vote for McCain for more of the same. I just hope those who think that way are not in the majority this time

[Rain]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama gives an analysis that seemed pretty much like what I have read in newspaper articles. His website has it too but some wouldn't trust that. You can find it in numerous newspaper articles with a search. His experience is an education in constitutional law, local organizing of groups, state politics, now almost 4 years in the US Senate, and running a campaign that unseated the Clintons-- maybe. If you look for other presidents, not all have been in the Senate a lifetime and that hasn't always been regarded as a plus by Americans when they have been.

[Condor]

I read Obama's resume'. I see almost nothing in the way of foreign policy experience, international relations, economics or strategic defense. Yet he talks big on these issues. The guy needs more experience in my opinion, not on-the-job training. He's wet behind the ears and is going to need sophisticated help. Does he have the experience to pick the right people, who can help him make the right decisions? He hasn't been around the block yet. He hasn't shown what he's made of, what really makes him tick except campaign rhetoric, but there have been indications and I can't trust him. I do know that he thinks he can spend my money more wisely than I can than. I know McCain won't sell us out. He's been around and knows the ropes.

[Rain]

McCain has already sold out many people; so not sure why you think he's trustworthy. But I know people often make these decisions based on things other than the facts. Obama doesn't need to have been making foreign policy decisions to have made the right one on us attacking Iraq. Commonsense doesn't automatically come through years of being in politics. If it did, all those long term legislators would be wise people. Yeah right.

To me McCain would be the worst mistake this country could make at this critical time, but there will be no convincing the 28% who still like Bush's policies because McCain will be continuing them. Sometimes good people have to agree to disagree, vote and hope it all works out for the best. I have learned a long time ago that there is a point beyond which debate gains nothing. I do know good people who are going to vote for McCain and did vote for Bush. The fact that I believe they are making the wrong choice and it scares me the direction the country is going doesn't make me feel they are bad people-- just wrong. As they think I am...

I do hope that all who support McCain thoroughly look into his own record-- not just the pander and rhetoric but what he's actually done, his voting record, the positions he has taken and then changed. I wrote a pretty extensive blog on that a week or two ago. But if someone knows all about his flip flops and his consistently doing now what suits the right wing, guess they will like what they get if he is in office.

[Condor]

I agree nothing further will be accomplished by this conversation. For me it is who I distrust the least. I don't trust either of 'em. 300+ million people and this is what we get.

[Harry Vanderpool]

I am the first to admit that we are from a very spoiled and privileged generation.
In the last 8 years, we have witnessed the worst president in the history of the U.S.
No one even comes close.
But it seems that we have NOT learned our lesson.
The spoiled (clueless)of our era are gleefully over reacting.
We are close to loosing it all.
So who will keep out country safe as commander in chief?
There is only room for one big mistake.
Then it is over.
When I enter the ballot box, I will not be handing the keys over to a smile and a speach.
But the way the polls are looking; this country is in for some tough times ahead.
Your vote could be the last vote you are ever entitled to.

[Condor]

To Harry Vanderpool: Amen to that, although I might choose Jimmy Carter as the worst president who was instrumental in what Iran has become and the growth of the jihadist movement. Bush is a close second.

Your statement: "The spoiled (clueless)of our era are gleefully over reacting."

Right on.

"I will not be handing the keys over to a smile and a speach."

Exactly.

"this country is in for some tough times ahead."

Unfortunately true. We ain't seen nothin' yet. I'm not a pessimist. It's plain as day.
Don't own dollars.

[Mort]

Vote your wallet, Obama will raise your taxes to pay for that free medical for all those wonderful people from south of the border, he won't let us drill for oil, he won't protect the borders and the great idea about a big tax on the Oil Companies, who do you think will pay the tax, you will, at the pump. Just wish you people would think. You think your kids are going to be happy with a national health care like Canada? I don't think so.