The Democratic Party of Oregon is about to get a new member. But party leaders shouldn't get too excited about my shift from "not a member of a party."
Here's why. I'm sending in my changed voter registration form tomorrow because I want to vote for Barack Obama in the primary on May 20. That's pretty much the only reason.
So if the Democratic Party superdelegates, who aren't so super, screw Obama out of the nomination even though he ends up with more pledged delegates, I'm back to unaffiliated.
A side benefit of registering as a Democrat is that I'll have a card capable of being sliced up into tiny pieces and mailed to the Democratic Party headquarters if Obama gets the raw end of back room deal-making.
Hopefully that won't happen. Currently Obama leads Clinton by 138 pledged delegates, 1141 to 1003. That's a 53% to 47% split.
There are 1025 delegates still to be selected. Even if Clinton wins 55% of them, and Obama just 45%, Obama still will end up in the lead: 1602 to 1567.
And this assumes a highly unlikely turnaround in voter sentiment, with Clinton more than reversing the pro-Obama trend so far.
I was pleased to see that a recent poll shows Obama and Clinton in a dead heat among Texas Democrats. That state is supposed to be Clinton country, but Obama is closing fast.
According to Pollster.com, Wisconsin is heading Obama's way. Tomorrow we'll see how accurate this compendium of polls is – currently showing Obama up 49-42.
So I'm looking forward to the Democratic Party superdelegates throwing their support to Obama after the primary voting is over and he's got a comfortable lead in pledged delegates.
If this doesn't happen, a lot of people – including newbie Democrats like me – are going to wonder, "Whatever happened to the 'democracy' in Democratic?"
Hey, it's off-topic, but I came upon this site at http://www.obamawill.com/ and it's wonderful and funny. And...my wife, a Clinton supporter, read it and said it's the first thing she's seen that inclines her towards Obama. Go figure.
Posted by: Bill Vroom | February 19, 2008 at 06:13 AM
Good for you on the switch. I'd have been an independent also except for voting in primaries. I have never had one though that I feel as positive about as this one and Obama. I think the democratic party will find it faces a big loss if it doesn't do right by Obama if he comes out of the primaries with the most votes.
Posted by: Rain | February 19, 2008 at 08:06 AM
Uh Oh, we're about to get into a family debate. I'm a big Clinton supporter and I say to Obama; if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Come on Dad, welcome to how politics have been run since the beginning of time, of course it's all decided by political insiders. Maybe if Obama had more experience and contacts, he wouldn't be in this position. It's all about who you know! Go Hillary!!!!
Posted by: Celeste Vos | February 19, 2008 at 08:14 PM
Hey, beloved daughter, who happens to favor the wrong candidate: if Hillary had a better ability to get votes from ordinary Americans, she wouldn't be in a position of needing to scrounge superdelegates.
I'm sure you'll support Obama when he becomes the Democratic candidate. And when he turns out to be a great president, I look forward to hearing, "Dad, you were right about Barack."
Posted by: Brian | February 19, 2008 at 09:30 PM
Of course I'll support Obama. We are lucky to have two great candidates. What's not to like about Obama? Although I tried to read his book "The Audacity of Hope" and kept falling asleep. I may be wrong but didn't the American people vote for Gore but still Bush became President because of a select group of judges. It will never end.......
Posted by: Celeste | February 20, 2008 at 09:05 AM
Why are people so crazy about this guy? Because he's a glib orator who talks about hope and change (how original) and isn't Bush?
I think it is astonishing how the media props him up. Gotta hand it to him. He's slick as a greased weasel. We'll see what happens when he and McCain go head to head on the issues, but it looks like Obama is seen as the second coming and will win big on a deluded public's high hopes, ignorance and unrealistic dreams.
Posted by: AJ | February 20, 2008 at 03:48 PM
The perfect ticket. Obama n Clinton or Clinton n Obama. Which choice is yours? Me, Either Or .
Posted by: dmary | February 20, 2008 at 08:49 PM
I live in an open primary state, so I could vote for whomever I wished.
I hear all the newspapers that endorsed Bush in 2004 have endorsed Obama in 2008. Lots of Republican donors are giving him money too.
He's ROLLING in cash. ;)
Posted by: Another Obama Republicrat | February 22, 2008 at 05:27 PM