Reading “tea leaves” of Measure 49 outcome

Avid proponents of Oregon's Measure 49 that we are, it's hard for my wife and I to pass the remaining hours until the votes are counted without worrying about the outcome.

So I've been consulting some cyberspace tea leaves. They've helped me reaffirm my previous prediction that this fix to Measure 37 will pass by a 63% to 37% margin.

The only non-affirming omen that I've gotten was my solitaire loss a few minutes ago after I asked my computer, "Give me a win if Measure 49 will pass." The cards didn't turn out for me. But then, they usually don't. So I'm going to discount this flimsily superstitious forecasting technique.

Somewhat more solid is blogger Jack Bogdanski's "exit poll" on Measures 49 and 50. Leaving aside the (not so minor) quibble that these aren't randomly selected poll-takers, I'm pleased that at last look Measure 49 was getting 70% "Yes" and just 27% "No" out of 932 votes.

On Jack Bog's blog Measure 50 is leading 56% to 41%, which also seems believable.

As of 12:30 pm today, the Multnomah County voter turnout is up to 47%. That's a jump from 42% on Monday. Peter Bray has projected a 52-55% turnout. Maybe a little high, but it's not going to be hugely lower than the statewide voting percentage – which bodes well for Measure 49.

On the intuitive-emotional front, we're going to a Yes on 49 election night party this evening where I've been volunteered to make the coffee in a large coffee maker, which I'm clueless about. My modus operandi is to make java way stronger than most people like it.

So I feel more anxious about making coffee tonight than I am about the Measure 49 outcome. Another good sign. (If 49 passes early in the evening, I'm hoping people will celebrate by drinking so much wine they won't notice how bad the coffee tastes).

Lastly, thanks to Bray I played around today with an interactive viewer of Measure 37 claims that indeed is amazing.

Here are the claims in the south Salem area where we live. The Laack subdivision claim that we've been fighting, along with many other neighbors, is the three chunks of blue near the bottom to the left of the I-5 symbol.

And here's an overlay of groundwater restricted areas, the big wash of blue. Almost every Measure 37 claim threatens the water supply of neighbors, which goes a long way toward explaining the resistance to them.

Multiply this exceedingly worrisome pattern of Measure 37 development all around the state, and you have 7,500 excellent reasons to vote "Yes" on Measure 49.

I'm confident that the eyes of Oregonians have been opened to the dangers of Measure 37. But, hey, I could be wrong.

I doubt it, though. If I can figure out how to make the coffee tonight, I'm expecting to have some happy hours ahead of me.

[Update, 5:45 pm: The No on 49 campaign has no parties planned. Another positive tea leaf.]

Comments

[Aileen]

Guess what! Carole has the coffee maker out, the water is in it, and she'll put the right amount of coffee in it! all we have to do is plug it in. How's that for a good omen?

You can still come early to help as there will be much to do.

You are so funny.

[Peter Bray]

This might be of interest... posted it on my blog:

The Dem turnout statewide is 50%, at the moment the Repub turnout is trailing by 3%.

This is interesting.

Let’s take a look at how previous elections have worked… in 2004, GOP turnout was 0.89% greater than Dem turnout. In 2002, GOP turnout was 3.27% higher than Dem turnout.

So a 3% turnout advantage to Dems is very, very, very favorable.

[Richard]

Win or lose, I think I'm gonna have a hangover tomorrow

[Brian]

Thanks, Aileen.

But what if the coffee maker has an incompatible polarized plug? What if we need an extension cord? What if a circuit breaker flips?

I won't relax until the coffee is made. And Measure 49 has passed.

[Mr Last-Minute]

Forgive me if I'm posting this in the wrong place, but I'm trying to get this Yes on 49 video I made as much exposure as I can in the few hours in which it might still make a difference:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqcFTtfK6h4

"A last-minute plea to Oregon voters to get down to your local ballot drop-off point (myself I prefer the library), and vote yes on Measure 49. Help keep Oregon livable and sustainable!"

The idea is that you can forward it to someone you know who needs to be browbeat (in a nice way) into voting yes on 49 :)

[proud lefty]

Well it looks like your prediction came true! Thanks for your hard work. I hope that sleezy development near you does not get vested and allowed to go on just because the developer has done significant illegal work. My wife has worked at least four hours a day on the Yes on 49 campaign for the past month and it sure is rewarding to see that my fellow Oregonians have seen the 'wolf in sheep's clothing' that was M37!

[Rain]

I am happy to see that Measure 49 passed with about the percentage you had predicted. Oregonians once again went with quality life over money. Congratulations to the voters. It still allows more development than the past but not the crazy kind that is throwing subdivisions in the middle of farm land. For country living people, this is a victory for the farm and ranch. It might not allow some big property owners to head off for Hawaii with their profits but it allows them to build reasonable home numbers on their own land and pass that right on. I think it's a good compromise