Global warming: the big truth

Our Oregon weather is way too weird. In mid-February I shouldn’t have to water willow cuttings Laurel planted by scooping dribbles of water out of a usually full creek. In mid-February I shouldn’t have to be turning on the sprinkling system to keep our plants from drying out. In mid-February the thermometer outside our front door shouldn’t say 58.6 degrees.

But all this is true. So far this month Salem has gotten .43 inches of rain instead of the normal 3.73 inches. The average high for today is 52, not the actual 59. I’ve lived in Oregon for thirty-four years. I know that I shouldn’t be mowing our lawn in mid-February. Yet I did.

A few years ago I wrote a tongue-in-cheek post called “Global Warming…The Big Lie.” I was joking. Global warming is real. As this article is titled, “Here's the proof, Mr President.” Oceanographers analyzed more than seven million recordings of ocean temperatures from around the world. They compared the rise in temperatures at different depths to predictions made by two computer simulations of global warming.

Bingo. Right on. No doubt about it. Man-made greenhouse gases are the cause of observed changes in ocean temperatures. One of the researchers, a marine physicist, said: "We've got a serious problem. The debate is no longer: 'Is there a global warming signal?' The debate now is: 'What are we going to do about it?'"

Damn right, Mr. President. Good question. One thing you could do is send a federal employee out to do the watering for me. My left shoulder has been giving me some problems, and it wasn’t helped by carrying around lots of buckets of water. And if our well goes dry, you could pay for drilling a new one.

Again, I’m kidding. Actually, I’m not blaming Bush for Oregon’s dry spell. I want to save my Bush-Blames for problems that can be tied more directly to his screw-ups, of which there are many to choose from. What I do blame Bush for is not acknowledging scientific facts. Global warming is just one of many instances where the Bush administration politicizes science, choosing to ignore or downplay scientific studies that aren’t in tune with a neo-conservative world view.

There is room to disagree about the meaning of global warming and what should be done about it. The March 2005 issue of Scientific American has a fascinating article called “How Did Humans First Alter Global Climate?” William Ruddiman, the author, presents compelling evidence that starting about 8,000 years ago our human ancestors began contributing significant quantities of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere by clearing forests and irrigating fields to grow crops.

As a result, the article says, “human beings kept the planet notably warmer than it would have been otherwise—and possibly even averted the start of a new ice age.” For analyses of the changes in the earth’s orbit that produce ice ages predict that one should be at hand. In fact, Ruddiman argues that without human activity the next round of glaciation would already have started.

So on the whole maybe global warming is good for humans. And maybe it isn’t. Some parts of the world likely will benefit from global warming, and some will suffer (like low-lying islands). Instead of rejecting the Kyoto treaty and hiding our scientific head in the sand, Bush should have the United States participating in a worldwide debate about the effects of global warming and what should be done about it.

Instead, this cartoon from “Funny Times” sums up the Bush administration’s attitude toward truth—including the scientific variety. I’d find it more amusing if I wasn’t sore from carrying all that water around today.

Comments

[Trey]

Yes, the weather here in Oregon AND Salem is certainly strange. Like you, I've actually had to water my native garden. I usually don't have to begin worrying about watering it until May or June.

I read that Oregon's precip has been diverted to Southern California. In the last 2 months, LA has received over 20" of rain (normal is about 6.5").

Hopefully, this "trade" won't involve some sort of perverse reciprocity. I certainly wouldn't want their smog to float up here!

[Calley Ryan]

Mr. Hines, I love how you compare global warming to the temperature around you and how it has changed in the past few years, but How hot was it a hundred years ago where you live now? Isn't that just as important? Or how about a thousand? Hasn't the weather changed dramatically over time? Even if there is Global Warming, It makes no sense that it would be cause by humans, and again, even if it WERE caused by humans, however unlikely, I think we could stand it. Just look at people in AK versus people along the Equator. That's a dramatic change, eh? We'll all find a way to live. Humans adapt and evolve.

[Scott]

"They compared the rise in temperatures at different depths to predictions made by two computer simulations of global warming."

Computer simulations. Therein lies the flaw. This is no proof. It is a simulation of what would happen if we knew ANY of the exact values of the variables that the scientists input into the program. And even if we had 100% accuracy with each of the variables, the program itself can never replicate reality perfectly.

Why would you believe that the same science that cannot accurately predict the local weather more than 3 days in advance would have the uncanny ability to accurately predict the weather 50, 100, or even thousands of years from now?

Let's say Earth is a 40 year old man. Modern science would be somewhere in mother nature's fallopian tubes. Why is it that scientists never can admit EVER that they DON'T know everything about our planet yet, and they probably won't in this lifetime?

Global Warming is a theory - not fact. Even so, we have not been on this planet long enough to experience any major planetary changes for ourselves. We even have geological evidence that ice ages have occured once every 11,000 years or so - and no one can explain exactly why or how they come about with 100% accuracy. It's all theory, because we just don't know the absolute truth.

If the planet is warming, has anyone every thought that maybe this is natural? Maybe the earth's climate fluctuates over time due to something that we have not discovered yet. We don't know. Daily volcanic activity spews more ozone-depleting gasses into the air than all of the automobile exhaust in the history of man every has. Solar flares do instant damage on a scale that we can barely get accurate measurements of due to it's size and scope.

The simple fact is - we don't know. Nobody does. Scientists need money. When the general uninformed public has a buzzword to worry about, like 'acid rain', 'Y2K', 'global warming' or 'avian flu', they tend to be a little bit more generous with donations, and more often. Scientists know this, so they exploit the data they have, give it a spin and send it en masse to the media. Payday. And most people will believe it immediately without researching anything at all. If you do have a brain and can think for yourself and happen to disagree, you are simply shunned from the mainstream scientific community faster than you can say 'conformity'.

Do some research and you will see for yourself that global warming at the absolute least is a MASSIVE stretch of the truth, blown so far out of proportion from the actual temperature data that started it all.

[Mike]

One explanation for strange weather and events that's NEVER talked about is Judgment. Now, I realize nobody really cares or wants to talk about this subject matter. But, if we truly have open minds, shouldn't we at least consider it? The Bible says near the end times the earth will trevail as a pregnant woman giving birth.

Since the environmental crowd and "scientists" have already proclaimed climate change as fact, "no longer debatable", could this be prophesy being fulfilled? After all, we're seeing hurricanes of greater magnitude, earthquakes in greater frequency, tsunami, wars and rumors of wars, and groups of people pitted against each other like never before.

Remember, there's always going to be a "sensible alternative" to believing what's in the Bible. In the case of the strange weather and climate changes, that alternative is Global Warming. Just a thought for the open minded.