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For a long time I've written about local Salem, Oregon political issues on this blog. Recently I started a new blog, Salem Political Snark. That's where new posts about Salem politics can be found. If you're a Facebook user, give the Salem Political Snark Facebook page a "like." Then you'll get new posts in your Facebook feed. Scroll down for new HinesSight posts.

City Club talk about opioids both enlightening and disturbing

We're all addicted to something. Coffee. Video games. TV. Golf. Travel. Whatever. But usually our addictions aren't so intense as to wreck our lives. And rarely are they fatal.

Opioids, though, are both addictive and highly dangerous. They can do good, when used correctly. They also do a lot of harm, when used incorrectly.

Last Friday a Salem City Club talk, "The Opioid Epidemic: How We Got Here and the Way Forward," both fascinated me with facts I hadn't been aware of before, and depressed me with fairly familiar statistics about how opioids are ravaging our country. 

Coelho and Holton

The speakers were Dr. Paul Coelho of the Salem Health Pain Clinic and Dwight Holton, CEO of Lines for Life (and a former US Attorney for Oregon). This isn't a very cheery photo of them that I took, but then, their topic was deadly serious. Literally.

Holton spoke first. He said that when he was US Attorney, he started to work on an effort to combat heroin use in Oregon. But he shifted gears after someone told him, "You're looking at the wrong drug." Indeed, opioids are a much bigger problem.

There are 42,000 car deaths per year. The Vietnam War killed 58,000 Americans, in total. And in 2017 it is estimated there were 72,000 drug overdose deaths. That number seemed so high, I worried that my notes were wrong. So I found a National Institute of Drug Abuse link that confirmed it.

Here's a figure from that web page. It shows that deaths from natural and semi-synthetic opioids, both prescription and black market, have been steadily increasing. Heroin deaths have been rising even more rapidly, now surpassing "regular" opioid deaths. 

But deaths from synthetic drugs other than methadone have been really increasing in recent years.

In his remarks, Coelho said that $1,000 worth of Fentanyl can be worth $8 million on the black market, while $1,000 worth of heroin is only worth $4,000. So there's a huge incentive for drug dealers/cartels to push Fentanyl onto people addicted to opioids. Problem is, only a few grains of Fentanyl can be fatal.

So how did we get into this opioid mess? 

It's well known that pharmaceutical companies must shoulder a large part of the blame. I'd say, most of the blame. Holton mentioned a New Yorker story, "The Family That Built an Empire on Pain,"  that I'd read which described in excruciatingly painful detail how the Sackler family became hugely rich by selling OxyContin through Purdue Pharmaceuticals.

"Selling" doesn't do justice to the crap that happened. Purdue knew that OxyContin was being overprescribed, with jillions (more or less) of pills finding their way onto the black market. Purdue paid six hundred million dollars in fines, but the New Yorker story says:

Given the billions of dollars that the Sacklers and Purdue had reaped from OxyContin, some observers felt that the company had got off easy. Arlen Specter, the Republican senator from Pennsylvania, remarked that such fines amounted to “expensive licenses for criminal misconduct.”

Coelho said that doctors were encouraged to prescribe OxyContin by attractive young female pharmaceutical reps. Helping to sway them was an absurdly over-cited 1980 letter to the editor in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM). Yes, a mere letter to the editor. Here it is.

This study only dealt with hospitalized patients, not people prescribed opioids on an outpatient basis. Nonetheless, the letter was used frequently in advertising for OxyContin and, I assume, other opioids. The NEJM only issued a retraction in 2017, long after it should have.

Holton said that pharmaceutical companies marketed opioids as being low risk and high benefit, but they were very wrong on both counts. 

After 30 days of using opioids, there's a 47% chance a person still will be using them in three years. And if I can read my scribbled writing correctly, after using opioids for 90 days, there's a 66% chance a person still will be using them in five years. Whatever the percentage actually is, the longer the use, the greater the chance of addiction. Also, the higher the dose, the greater the chance is.

Four out of five heroin users had used opioids previously. So if there's a gateway drug to heroin, it is opioids, not marijuana. Regarding marijuana, neither of the speakers mentioned this, but research shows that after states legalize marijuana, the number of opioid prescriptions and the daily dose of opioids goes way down. 

Since no one has ever died from an overdose of marijuana, this argues for legalizing pot as a way to reduce opioid addiction and the harms that come with overuse of opioids. 

Astoundingly, Holton said that 216 million opioid pills are prescribed each year in Oregon. That's about fifty pills per person. So it's hard to believe that all of these prescriptions are medically necessary. The good news is, as shown in the slide above, that Oregon is making progress on reducing opioid use. 

Nationally and in general, though, the trend is disturbing. This slide showed how opioid deaths are just the tip of the opioid problem iceberg. 

And this slide shows how mortality rates in the 45-54 age group, which I gather is a prime age for using opioids, has been rising in the United States (red line; not sure why it says "USW"), while the rates have been falling in other industrialized countries.

Another slide fell prey to bad focusing on my iPhone. It showed that opioid prescription rates are much higher in this country, perhaps because we have such evil pharmaceutical companies like Purdue, and lack a national health system. Coelho said that meth use is spiking in Oregon. Stimulant prescriptions are increasing. 

On the positive side, this slide showed that Baltimore had a 40% drop in overdose deaths over seven years following an expansion of opioid agonist (counter-acting) medication. Many police officers now carry agonists such as Naloxone, which is great.

Lastly, this slide shows what needs to be done to combat the opioid epidemic. It's a bit hard to read, so here's what it says; 

(1) Safe pain management. Better access to safe and effective pain care.

(2) Fewer pills. Protect the community through safer prescribing and better medication disposal. 

(3) Support harm reduction, treatment & recovery. Better access/availability of naloxone, MAT, & other addiction treatment & recovery supports.

(4) Data/education. Better data to inform action. 

Be wary of Arcimoto's new last-minute stock offering

In general I've been supportive of Arcimoto's attempt to design and market an electric three-wheeled motorcycle, which they call the FUV, Fun Utility Vehicle. It does indeed look like fun, but this doesn't take away from the fact that the company is on shaky financial ground.

(You can see my previous posts about this effort by clicking on the Arcimoto category in the right sidebar. I have an early pre-order number of #129, so I've been following Arcimoto for quite a while.)

But yesterday Arcimoto did something that strikes me as ethically dubious -- a new last-minute stock offering announced after the markets closed on Friday, which requires investors to wire money by 5 pm EST on Monday if they want to buy shares via this offering.

This is after Arcimoto also announced yesterday in a third quarter earnings report that "our current resources are only sufficient to fund our intended operations through the end of November 2018."

Here's how I described my concerns about this stock offering in posts on the Facebook Arcimoto FUV Fan Club page.

First post was about the third quarter earnings report.

Well, as was suspected, Arcimoto is on shaky ground financially. The third quarter earnings report says they only have enough cash to last through November 2018. Excerpt:
-------------
"Total revenues in the third quarter of 2018 were $8,000 as compared to no revenue in the third quarter of 2017. Sources of revenue in the third quarter of 2018 were $8,000 from the sale of merchandise and metal fabrication revenue.

The Company incurred an operating and net loss of $3.2 million, or ($0.20) per share in the third quarter of 2018, compared to an operating and net loss of $0.7 million, or ($0.05) per share in the third quarter of 2017.

The Company had $2.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and $0.8 million in short-term investments as of September 30, 2018, compared to $2.1 million cash and cash equivalents and $5.2 million in short-term investments as of June 30, 2018. As explained in more detail in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the periods ended September 30, 2018, our current resources are only sufficient to fund our intended operations through the end of November 2018."

Second post was about the new stock offering.

At the risk of being called a negative Arcimoto "boo-bird," I've got to say it like I see it. The company's weekend stock offering of up to 2,500,000 shares at $3 a share strikes me as ethically dubious (at best). Here's why I think this way:

(1) The subscription (sales) agreement says that the price will be the highest of $3 or the closing price today, November 16, which was $2.94. So Arcimoto is asking investors to pay more than the last market price.

(2) Payment has to be wired to the company no later than 5 pm EST on Monday, November 19. There's a good chance the market price of Arcimoto stock will be less than $3 by that time.

(3) Why the rush to get the money wired so fast? Seemingly because Arcimoto wants to get some money committed for shares over the weekend before the markets have a chance to digest the fact that Arcimoto says it will run out of cash by the end of November.

Note: if you've ever wired money, you'll know that once it is sent, it can't be retrieved. It isn't like a check that you can stop payment on. So this is another reason I'm suspicious of this scheme. Arcimoto wants the money before people can see what happens to the stock price next week.

(4) If someone wants to buy more Arcimoto stock, here's a suggestion: wait until next Tuesday. See what happens to the stock price on Monday. There's a good chance the price will be less than the $3 Arcimoto is demanding for the special stock offering unveiled today.

This scheme just feels wrong to me. It smacks of desperation. Arcimoto has known for months that it was running out of money. Likely it has tried to raise the $7.5 million of so from a variety of sources: banks, venture capital, institutional investors, etc.

Now time is running out, so it appears that Arcimoto is hoping to be bailed out by individuals who want very much to buy a FUV.

But these individuals are at considerable risk of paying $3 per share for stock that could be worth much less, even close to zero, before too long -- if Arcimoto isn't able to finalize design of its FUV and make a lot of retail sales.

I'm just speaking for myself, obviously. That said, this last minute weekend scheme makes me very reluctant to buy a FUV, if this is ever possible. Up until today I've felt that Arcimoto had high ethical standards. That feeling is much diminished now.

Third post was about risk factors in the prospectus.

I want to add this advice to prospective buyers of the new stock offering. Be sure to scroll down the offering document and carefully read the "risk factors" in the prospectus. Some are more or less boilerplate, but the first one talks about how Arcimoto is running out of money fast and may not be able to continue operations if enough stock isn't sold. I've copied it in:
---------------------
"We may not sell all of the common stock we are offering, and we may not raise enough capital from the sale of our common stock to address our short-term cash flow needs or adequately fund and execute our developing growth strategy.

There is no minimum amount of our common stock we must sell in this offering. Accordingly, investors will bear the risk that we will accept subscriptions for far less than the maximum amount of shares offered.

In that event, we will be unable to successfully complete all of the anticipated uses of the net proceeds of this offering. The financial notes to our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2018, contain an explanatory paragraph expressing substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern and the depletion of our cash as of approximately the end of November 2018.

If we raise less funds than planned, we might not be able to address our short-term cash flow needs and continue operations.

Even if we can continue our operations, if we raise less funds than planned, we might be unable to execute our developing growth strategy as planned and our prospects, business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected, all of which would have a negative impact the return on your investment in our common stock."

Tai Chi actually is good for self-defense (just not against MMA fighters)

Recently TIME magazine had a story about how a Chinese MMA (mixed martial arts) fighter, Xu Xiaodong, beat up Wei Lei, a Kung Fu master in the discipline of Tai Chi, in about 10 seconds. 

It doesn't take long to watch the thoroughly one-sided fight. Reading the story, "Meet the Chinese MMA Fighter Taking on the Grandmasters of Kung Fu," will require a lot more time.

Nonetheless, about eleven years ago I wrote a blog post that I still stand by, "Tai Chi as a kick-ass martial art." I wrote that post after I'd been studying Tai Chi for three years, which followed thirteen years of hard-style (karate, mostly) martial arts experience. 

Now, with around fourteen years of Tai Chi to base my opinion on, I'm even more convinced that this internal martial art has a lot to offer self-defense wise.

My Tai Chi instructor, Warren Allen of Pacific Martial Arts, has much more experience than I do in both hard-style and soft-style martial arts. In class we never do full-on sparring, but I've seen enough real-world examples of Tai Chi self-defense techniques (and practiced them myself) to realize that they are indeed practical techniques.

Just not against a MMA fighter. And maybe not against a skilled martial artist in some other style, given that success in a fight depends on much more than knowledge of classroom techniques.

My first karate instructor liked to say, "If you have to take a bet on who will win a bar fight -- a 2nd degree Shotokan karate black belt, or a Marine who's just drunk a six-pack of beer, put your money on the Marine." Why? Because the Marine will do whatever it takes to win a fight. And he's used to getting hit.

Along that line, I found a video that my Tai Chi instructor told us about -- a tough as nails Shaolin monk who does pretty damn well against kick boxers, who, admittedly, aren't as dangerous as MMA fighters. The monk takes punches like they're marshmallows. 

He uses kickboxing techniques, which don't look like traditional Kung Fu, and even less like Tai Chi. But in an actual fight, on the street or somewhere else, every sort of technique is going to look a lot more messy than it does when being practiced in a classroom.

This is the point of someone who made a right-on video, "Tai Chi - Scam or deadly fighting art?"

The speaker says that he's trained people in both Tai Chi and MMA fighting, so he knows what he's talking about. A basic message is that if you aren't training in real-world applications of Tai Chi moves, which should include freestyle sparring, you're not going to fare very well in an actual fight.

Lastly, this video does a good job of showing how a few simple Tai Chi moves can be effective in the sort of encounter that people should worry about most: someone attacks you who isn't highly skilled, just belligerent and/or drunk. The confident relaxation Tai Chi teaches will come in handy in that sort of situation.

 

Arcimoto owes prospective buyers answers to key questions

Arcimoto is a company based in Eugene, Oregon that has been working on the design and production of a three-wheeled electric motorcycle since its founding in November 2007. I plunked down a $100 pre-order deposit in October 2015, so I've got a low reservation number: #129.

I'm still trying to decide whether to buy an Arcimoto. I like the concept -- a fun to drive electric motorcycle with two heated seats, a windshield, seat belts, rollover protection, and other options yet to be revealed by Arcimoto. 

But I've got unanswered questions that, hopefully, will be answered by the time I need to decide whether to go ahead with paying an estimated $12,000 to $15,000 for an Arcimoto FUV (Fun Utility Vehicle) with an extended battery, some storage, and at least half doors.

To the company's credit, the FAQs on the Arcimoto web site address most of the questions that concern me. However, so far Arcimoto hasn't provided good answers to those questions. 

Here's six excerpts from those FAQs. I've highlighted the as-yet unanswered question or issue in red. My comment on each question or issue is in italics. 

(1) What is the top speed, and for how long can the FUV maintain that speed?

The FUV’s top speed is 80 mph. The range is 70 miles with a full charge on the base model and 130 miles with the extended battery model. Driving at a high speed for an extended period will affect the range. We will provide more information on range under varied driving conditions once we have more testing data from the Alpha and Signature Series vehicles.

This is crucial information. I live about seven miles from the Salem, Oregon city limits. I'd be driving into town on a hilly two-lane road at about 45-50 mph. I want to be sure that I'll have enough range with the extended battery to drive around Salem, then get home with enough remaining battery capacity to avoid "range anxiety." Arcimoto needs to provide range estimates at various speeds and temperatures for vehicles with no doors, half doors, and full doors, as this is important information for prospective buyers to know.

(2) Can you drive in extreme cold or hot climates?

Yes. However, we will have better information on vehicle performance in various environmental conditions as we near full-scale production. All models of the FUV will have vent and heat for defrost and cabin comfort. We also plan to offer the option for a complete climate-control system.

Some years ago my wife and I briefly owned a Nissan Leaf with a claimed 130 mile range, if I recall correctly). [UPDATE: no, I didn't recall correctly. Wikipedia says Nissan's 2011 Leaf had a claimed range of 100 miles, but the EPA official range was 73 miles.] During cold weather, like 40 degrees, the range would drop markedly. A friend recently bought a used 2015 Leaf and he told me that the car is only getting about 60-70 miles of range, even though it hadn't been driven very much by the previous owner. [UPDATE: the EPA range for the 2015 Leaf is 75-84 miles.]

As noted above  I need to know how many miles the extended battery Arcimoto will go at various temperatures and various speeds. Cars show "in town" and "highway" mileage estimates. Arcimoto needs to provide this information for cold, mild, and hot temperatures. 

(3) What is the safety simulation status?

We have a mechanical engineer on staff with several years of experience in automotive safety and crash. The team has redesigned the front and side impact structure, and is working on nonlinear analysis on a variety of safety scenarios, to be backed up by testing.

Being a motorcycle, the Arcimoto lacks air bags. And being so small and light, albeit three-wheeled, it isn't going to fare very well in a collision with a car or truck. I'm OK with this, in part because I rode a Suzuki Burgman 650 maxi-scooter for three years, and survived without any accidents. But being older now, and maybe a bit wiser, I'd like to know how the Arcimoto and driver/passenger will hold up in certain types of crashes: head-on, side impact, rear-ended.

(4) How long does it take to charge the FUV?

Using a 110V outlet, the estimated time for a full charge is 8 hours. Using a 220V outlet, the estimated time is 4 hours. These are estimates that we will update as we continue testing.

We have a Level 2 charger in our carport. But my wife's Chevy Volt is hooked up to it most of the time, so if I got an Arcimoto, likely it would have to be charged outside at 110V. Eight hours would be fine, since I'd only be driving it once a day. But it'd be nice to have firmer charging estimates.

(5) What is the servicing plan?

The optimized design of the FUV will make servicing a very straightforward process, and most replacement parts are off-the-shelf automotive standards. We’ve started to build our service network in key cities, and will continue to expand as our production levels increase. FUV owners will be taken care of throughout the lifetime of your vehicle.

This is a significant concern for me -- how the Arcimoto would be repaired if something goes wrong. Before I'd seriously consider buying one, I'd need to know the name of the local service company here in Salem that would deal with problems. And what are the "key cities" that Arcimoto is building its service network in?

My understanding is that Arcimoto is accepting pre-order reservations from people all over the country, and even in foreign countries. How will servicing be handled for everybody who buys an Arcimoto FUV? I'll address the "lifetime of your vehicle" issue below.

(6) What is the FUV manufacturer’s warranty?

Arcimoto plans to offer a standard 3-year/36,000-mile warranty.

OK, this sounds good. But a 3-year/36,000 mile warranty requires that Arcimoto stay in business for that long. There's a fairly good chance that this won't happen. Arcimoto is a new company with a single new product. The most recent quarterly earnings report (August 2018) showed that Arcimoto lost $2.2 million in the second quarter and had $2.1 million in cash and $5.2 million in short-term investments as of June 30, 2018. 

That's about $4 million less than the company had the quarter before. So if sales/revenues don't manifest substantially in 2019, it's easy to see how Arcimoto could go under, absent an influx of outside investment money. The company's stock price isn't particularly encouraging at the moment, being much closer to its 52-week low than the 52-week high. I doubt Arcimoto could guarantee that early purchasers of its FUV would be covered by the warranty no matter what happens to the company. This is just a valid concern for those of us with low pre-order reservation numbers.

 

Good news for Dems in my daughter's Orange County report

Along with other progressives, I'm trying to tread a middle way between undue optimism and excessive pessimism regarding tomorrow's Super Duper Important midterm election. 

But after getting a politically-oriented phone call this evening from my daughter Celeste, who lives in Orange County, California (Laguna Niguel, to be exact), I'm tilting more to the side of "Democrats could have a great day on Tuesday." 

Celeste has been interested in politics, but until this year I wouldn't call her an activist. Tonight, though, she excitedly told me that last weekend she did her first-ever canvassing -- for Harley Rouda, a Democrat who is running against Dana Rohrabacher in California's 48th District. 

Rohrabacher, a conservative Republican who is known for his love of Putin and all things Russian, has held his Orange County seat for 30 years. But he's in a tough fight with Rouda this time around. FiveThirtyEight.com rates the race as a toss-up, with Democrat Rouda narrowly favored to win.

Celeste told me that over 1,100 people have volunteered to campaign for Rouda. Even more impressive, she said that young people were much in evidence at the Rouda meetings she's been to. (Celeste is 46, which I consider young, so those really young people must be in their 20s and 30s.)

She felt super-energized after canvassing for Rouda.

Remember, this is Orange County we're talking about. Sure, Laguna Beach leans liberal, but historically the 48th District has been solidly Republican. Celeste said it consists of coastal areas like Huntington Beach, which is a conservative stronghold.

So the mere fact that the Rouda-Rohrabacher race is so close is one reason to feel positive about Democratic chances tomorrow.

Another reason is the influx of fresh progressive energy into Orange County. Celeste proudly told me that she had recently joined  WAVE, Women for American Values and Ethics, a non-partisan progressive group in Orange County formed after the 2016 election. 

Regarding the Rouda campaign, Celeste told me that there were so many people wanting to canvass for Rohrabacher's Democratic challenger, they've been canvassing Democratic leaning households who haven't returned a ballot yet twice. 

This sort of anecdotal evidence isn't proof that a Blue Wave is about to wash over the United States tomorrow.

However, when combined with polling, early voting, and other indicators of Democratic enthusiasm, my daughter's phone call tonight makes me pretty darn optimistic that November 6 will mark the beginning of the end of the national nightmare that began two years ago, when Trump soundly lost the popular vote but squeaked out a narrow victory in the electoral college. 

Here's a photo of Celeste and her husband, Patrick, looking all southern California'y in Newport Beach.

Printers are the Achilles heel of personal computers

I love my MacBook Pro. Like most Apple products, almost all of the time it works great. I no longer fear major operating system upgrades, like I did when I was a Windows user many years ago. 

The "blue screen of death" is an almost forgotten memory. I trust Apple software to do its thing without fuss or bother, and usually that trust is rewarded.

But Apple stopped making its own printers decades ago.

The apparent reason is that no one makes much money selling printers. The big bucks is in selling the cartridges needed to keep the printer functioning. Which is a lot like spending a mere $50 bucks to adopt a dog, then finding that your new pet eats up that much in dog food every single freaking month.

So us Apple devotees are forced to make do with non-Apple printers. Invariably, I find them to be much less reliable and easy to use than my 13 inch MacBook Pro, which has been my laptop computer of choice for quite a while.

I'm old (70). I'm also kind of old-fashioned.

I still like to read a print newspaper, and I much prefer paper books over e-books. Now, I bet many, or most, young people have little use for a printer. Their smart phones may be all the "computer" they need, and rarely is there anything on a phone that someone needs to print out.

Me, though, I like color laser printers.

Heck, I still write an annual Christmas letter which -- shock! -- my wife and I actually mail to some people. So for this and other reasons, my HP Color Laser Jet Pro MFP M477fnw is a frequently-used, yet not highly adorable, part of my electronic life.

It prints wirelessly. Except when it inexplicably loses the wi-fi connection, and I've got to fiddle around with a control panel on my laptop that isn't exactly a poster child for Ease of Use. 

There's something appealingly retro about printers in this 21st century.

Since I have a MacBook pro with flash memory and no fan noise, plus an absolutely quiet iPhone 8 Plus, the HP printer is the only computer-related gadget I have that makes a sound. Periodically it comes to life on its own and does something or other to keep its print cartridges all neat, tidy, and aligned (obviously I don't really know what it's doing).

And when I need to restart the printer, it whirs away for over a minute, doing... you guessed it, something or other. 

My current frustration with the Laser Jet Pro is that it has refused to print our Chase credit card statements. I'm pretty sure this happened after Chase redesigned the look of the statement, which I download every month from the Chase web site. I check off each of our VISA receipts against a printout of the statement -- again, this shows how old-fashioned I am.

Here's what prints out now. Obviously it isn't a VISA statement, but the sort of indecipherable computerese that I haven't seen since I made the switch from a PC to a Mac.

Well, the error message isn't totally indecipherable, since I can read about what a "limitcheck" message might mean. If I worked for a big company, probably there would be an information systems person who could figure out what's going on between the VISA statement and my printer.

But there's just me, myself, and I in charge of my computing world, and none of the three of us have any idea why the Offending Command of "imagemask" is causing the VISA statement to have become unprintable. Except on my wife's Canon printer. And except if I copy the VISA statement file to a USB thumb drive, and insert the drive into the printer. 

Then the VISA statement prints fine. As does everything else I want to print on the Laser Jet Pro. 

Tonight I had the bright, albeit obvious, idea of checking to see if there were HP software updates for the printer, since I'd recently upgraded to the newest Mojave Apple OS (operating system). Indeed, the HP web site had both a software update for OS 10.14, plus a firmware update for the printer.

Each took a while to download via our slow DSL connection, which is all that's available out here in the semi-wilds of rural south Salem, Oregon. 

I was a bit nervous about installing the updates, but that process went smoothly. I got a message that the printer was ready to use. So naturally I was eager to see if the updates caused the VISA statement to print.

Nope. Same error message popped up.

So it looks like I'll be using the USB thumb drive to print the statements every month. Not exactly a horrendous task. Still, it shows that when it comes to personal printers, we're still a long way from the seamless integration of human and technology that Tom Cruise exhibited in the movie "Minority Report."

I've tried waving my hands and telling the HP Color Laser Jet Pro to print the damn VISA statement from my laptop, but have had no luck. Of course, since marijuana is legal here in Oregon, maybe I wasn't stoned enough.

With enough weed in my system, I could probably imagine the statement was printing, even if it wasn't.  

Here's Nate Silver's predictions for key Oregon and national races

For political junkies like me, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com web site is a treasure trove of election prediction delights. It's beautifully designed, statistically sophisticated, and a good way to learn statistical principles without actually taking a course.

In this post I'm going to share how Silver looks upon some key House, Senate, and Governor races, naturally with a special focus on Oregon races. First, though, here's some tweets that Silver shared today:

So the lean/likely zone for Nate Silver is between a 60%-95% chance of a candidate winning. And the toss-up zone is when no candidate exceeds a 60% chance of winning. Keep in mind that "chance of winning" is different from the predicted percent of the vote a candidate will receive. 

With these definitions out of the way, on to the races!

I'm using the middle "Classic" 538.com forecast, rather than the "Lite" or "Deluxe" forecast (the latter includes experts' ratings, while "Classic" is billed as I'll take the polls, plus all the "fundamentals": fundraising, past voting in the state, historical trends, and more.)

Also, I made screenshots of the pop-ups on 538.com, which explains the bleed-through of what lay beneath the pop-up.

Oregon governor. Silver gives Democrat Kate Brown a 85% chance of winning, which warrants a "Likely D" rating. Yet I've seen newspaper stories calling the race a toss-up. Maybe by their definition, but this isn't how 538.com views the Oregon governor race. 

Florida governor. It's interesting that Democrat Andrew Gillum has almost as high a chance of winning, 78%, as Kate Brown, which puts the Florida Governor's race also in the "Likely D" category. 

UPDATE: Somehow I forgot to include the Georgia and Wisconsin governor races. Here they are:

Georgia governor. This is a really tight race. I don't understand why Kemp has a 58% chance of winning, given that his forecasted vote share is just slightly higher than Abrams'. But I'm sure Silver has some very good reasons for making this prediction.

Wisconsin governor. Another toss-up race. Maybe Scott Walker's election luck (and/or manipulating) has run out. A lot of liberals in Wisconsin will be overjoyed if Evers ends up winning.

Control of the House. Silver gives Democrats a 85% chance of winning control of the House of Representatives. That's high, but I try to keep in mind that Hillary Clinton had a 71% chance of beating Trump, and we know how that race turned out. It'll be interesting to see how close Democrats come to gaining 39 House seats, which is Silver's predicted average gain.

Schrader's House race. Democrat Kurt Schrader has exactly the same chance of holding onto his Oregon 5th House seat as the Democrats have of taking control of the House: 85%. 

Walden's House race. In the Oregon House district where Greg Walden is running for re-election, his Democratic opponent has been doing a lot of traveling around the far reaches of eastern Oregon. But her chances of winning are very slim: 1%. The three other Oregon house races are all rated as solid D, with DeFazio, Blumenauer, and Bonamici all given at least a 99% chance of winning. So Schrader's race is by far the most competitive in Oregon.

Rohrabacher House race. My daughter and her family live in Dana Rohrabacher's Orange County, California House district. She's been working to defeat him, so she'll be pleased to learn that his Democratic challenger has a 64% chance of beating him. Orange County used to be solidly Republican, so this shows how the Blue Wave may become a reality.

Control of the Senate. As is well known, Democratic control of the Senate is unlikely, since many more Democratic senators are up for re-election (many in states Trump won), a result of how well Dems did back in 2012. So the 17% chance of Democrats winning control of the Senate is about the same as the 15% chance Republicans have of maintaining control of the House.

North Dakota Senate race. Listening to satellite radio as I drove around today, I heard a pundit say that Democrat Heidi Heitkamp could lose her Senate race by 20 points. But Nate Silver gives her a 32% chance of winning, and has her forecasted vote share at 48%. So this seems to be an instance of people giving a candidate essentially a zero chance of winning when actually the race is much tighter.

Nevada Senate race. Likewise, the prevailing "wisdom" (note the scare quotes) seems to be that Dean Heller is on his way to keeping his Senate seat in a state that Clinton won. Silver, though, has the race as a toss-up, since Heller has only a 59% chance of winning. 

Florida Senate race. Roughly mirroring Andrew Gillum's chance of winning the Governor race, fellow Democrat Bill Nelson has a 72% chance of beating current Florida Governor Rick Scott in the Senate race. This surprises me, as I thought Scott was quite popular. But it seems a combination of Democratic enthusiasm and "red tide" worries in the state are buoying Nelson.

Texas Senate race. Beto O'Rourke is getting a lot of Democratic love nationally, but his chance of beating Ted Cruz is slim at 21%. Could happen, though. A 1 in 5 chance is a lot greater than a 1 in 100 chance, as is the case with 4 of 5 Oregon House races.

Arizona Senate race. Democrat Sinema has a 64% chance of beating Republican McSally in this race for an open Senate seat. So that's good news for Democrats, since nearly everything has to go right for Dems in Senate races for them to have a chance of taking control of the Senate.

I'll end by observing that I trust Nate Silver's methodology a lot more than I trust my progressive mind -- which dearly hopes that against all odds, somehow the Democrats take control of the Senate.

I believe that Silver is correct with his 17% chance of this happening.

But I can understand why some consider that the Democrats have a greater chance, since mere "clicking around" the 538.com Senate map can produce a different outcome (which I'd call by a non-technical term: wishful thinking.)

Here's what I mean:

I zoom around and see that in Missouri Democrat McCaskill has a 58% chance of holding onto her seat in a red state. In Indiana Democrat Donnelly has a 68% chance of winning. In West Virginia Democrat Manchin has a 89% chance of winning. In Montana Democrat Tester has a 85% chance of winning. 

Then I fantasize that Democrat Heitkamp beats the odds with her 32% chance of winning, and holds onto her North Dakota seat. Plus, Democrat Sinema wins the open seat in Arizona, and Democrat Rosen beats incumbent Heller in Nevada. 

Bingo! Seemingly this means Democrats pick up two Senate seats and they have a 51-49 control of the Senate. 

The flaw in this is my wishful non-statistical thinking. Silver runs computer simulations. I simply run what I want to have happen in my own mind. It could happen, because Silver says there's a non-trivial 17% chance Democrats can take control of the Senate. 

It's just a lot less likely than the "everything goes right for Democrats" scenario I can fashion in my left-leaning mind. 

My amazing Black Butte Ranch adventure

There are those who talk about doing great things. Then there are those who do great things. I'm pleased to be both "those's." I both do and talk. 

So after canine ZuZu and human Brian explored the far reaches of the mysterious land in the wilds of Black Butte Ranch known as Big Meadow, I was pleased to document our adventure -- just as (well, sort of as) Lewis and Clark chronicled their great journey of discovery.

Behold, and click... 

Brown Oregon grass in October -- climate change is very real

Yesterday I learned of a dire climate change report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Today I spread organic lawn fertilizer on parts of our rural yard where the grass is almost always greened up after fall rains.

Not this year. And that's really weird. 

I'm a creature of habit when it comes to fertilizing our yard. Twice a year, spring and fall, I spread organic fertilizer that I buy at Lowe's on both our shrubs/trees and our lawn.

Some of the grass around our house is watered with a sprinkler system. Some isn't. We've lived on our ten acres in rural South Salem for 28 years. I can't recall a year when the non-watered grass was as barren and brown at this time in October as it was today. 

This is an area outside our front door that has always, so far as I can remember, been green this time of year. But not now, not in 2018. I held off until today on spreading the lawn fertilizer, which I usually do in September, because there's been almost no rain, and the fertilizer needs to be watered in to do any good, obviously. 

Almost all of Oregon (86%) is in either severe or extreme drought as of October 2. And there's been little rain in the last week. Now, I realize that most people who live in cities aren't as directly aware of this as those of us who live in the country, and have wells. 

But as I was spreading lawn fertilizer on parts of our yard that were super-dry (another usually grassy area by our driveway is shown above), I couldn't help thinking about the IPCC report that I'd read about in the New York Times. 

A landmark report from the United Nations’ scientific panel on climate change paints a far more dire picture of the immediate consequences of climate change than previously thought and says that avoiding the damage requires transforming the world economy at a speed and scale that has “no documented historic precedent.”

The report, issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide world leaders, describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 — a period well within the lifetime of much of the global population.

Well, I'm alive right now, and I can say that Oregon's climate has changed a lot during the 47 years I've lived in my much-beloved state. The summers are drier and hotter. The winters are milder and warmer. I recall it raining for weeks on end in the fall and winter. That's rare now.

What irks me is that even if everybody accepted the science of climate change, it still would be tough to prevent the disastrous effects on human civilization that global warming is producing. But climate change deniers are everywhere, even here in green, liberal Oregon.

There are several climate change deniers on a "Stakeholder Advisory Committee" charged with helping guide an update to Salem's Comprehensive Plan which describes how our city will develop -- notably Sam Brentano, a Marion County commissioner. 

I hope that if Brentano or other climate change deniers start to raise doubts about the need for Salem to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, most members of the committee will say, "Stop! Just stop! You're wrong, and we're not going to put up with scientific ignorance, especially if it is willful ignorance."

Our yard is a microcosm of the global warming macrocosm. The bottom of this  photo shows a part of our lawn that doesn't get irrigated by a sprinkler. It's dry as a bone, though as noted before, usually by this time of year the grass is green. Another part of our lawn gets watered, so it looks fine -- no problem. 

But that "no problem" masks the reality of Oregon's drought. When I raised my iPhone's camera to another viewpoint, our yard looks wonderfully normal -- green and beautiful.

That's what so worrisome about global warming deniers. Because climate change is a slow-moving train wreck, not an instant dramatic disaster, it is possible to avert our eyes from the danger signs of a steadily warming world. 

Today I couldn't do that, as I spread lawn fertilizer on parts of our yard that were much drier than usual. I just hope many more people have their eyes opened to the reality of climate change before it is too late.

Here's a link to the actual IPCC report. And here's FAQs for those who don't want to read the whole report.

Regret and hope are luxuries for the young

I'm on the cusp of a decadal birthday. Tomorrow I'll be 70. So I've got just a few hours to say something wise about turning 70 before I'm actually there, and then can only talk about what's it's like to actually be so damn freaking old. 

I came up with the title of this blog post yesterday, when I was musing about what, if anything, I've learned over these many years.

In a bit of synchronicity, this morning I was reading Michael Pollan's book about psychedelics, "How to Change Your Mind: What the New Science of Psychedelics Teaches Us about Consciousness, Dying, Addiction, Depression, and Transcendence."

I liked the mention of time travel in Pollan's discussion of the difference between an expanded and contracted consciousness.

When, for example, I'm feeling especially generous or grateful, open to feelings and people and nature, I register a sense of expansion. This feeling is often accompanied by a diminution of ego, as well as a falloff in the attention paid to past and future on which the ego feasts. (And depends.)

By the same token, there is a pronounced sense of contraction when I'm obsessing about things or feeling fearful, defensive, rushed, worried, and regretful. (These last two feelings don't exist without time travel.) At such times I feel altogether more me, and not in a good way.

At my age, obviously there is much less in front of me than in back of me. The years I've already lived number far fewer than the years I have left to live -- unless I live until I'm 141.

Which isn't realistic to hope for. 

In fact, I'm becoming increasingly convinced that after a certain age, and I feel that I've passed it, both hope for the future and regret about the past are luxuries for the young. 

Why?

Because most young people have many more years to live. They have plenty of time to learn from their mistakes and to plan for a better future. So it makes sense for their psyche to do the sort of "ego feasting" Pollon speaks of.

What made this relationship fail? How did I end up in such a crappy job? Where do I want to live when I'm tired of this town? Should I have children, and if so, how many? Why doesn't my life seem truly meaningful? How can I make friends with people I really care about? How great will it be after I lose 20 pounds?

There's so many questions. Good questions. Great questions.

Our past and future are filled with them. As Pollon said, it is easy, and often fun, to time travel our way into regrets about the past and hopes for the future. Or other sorts of thoughts about what was and what may come to be. 

There's nothing wrong with doing this. But there's a cost. We can't be here and now when we're in there and then.

Now, actually we're always here and now, because there's no other possible place to be. But our present moment attention can be doing the time traveling thing, leaving us less aware of what exists in the reality that's staring right at us, as opposed to a memory of the past or an envisioning of the future.

Along with most people, from what I can tell, the older I get, the faster time seems to fly by.

Of course, this is a cruel feature of human psychology, since 70 year-olds like me (OK, soon to be me) have less years left to live than, say, a 40 year-old, so fairness demands that time pass slower for us senior citizens, so we can make the most of those limited years.

Unfortunately, this sort of fairness isn't a feature of the cosmos, so us old folks need to take time into our own hands. 

Psychedelics are one way to do this. Michael Pollan describes in his book how LSD, psilocybin, and the like shake up rigid mental faculties like a snow globe turned upside down. Old ways of seeing the world take a back seat to fresh vistas. Here and now becomes a wonderland, while past and future lack luster.

Tripping out on psychedelics was something I was pleased to do in my college years, but not now. Marijuana, a mild psychedelic, is as close as I want to come to revisiting my Glory Days with LSD, mescaline, and psilocybin. 

So this is why I'm paying more attention to what I pay attention to. Sure, I still have regrets about my past and hopes about my future. But just as people make New Year's resolutions, I'm making a New Decade of Life resolution:

The past is gone; the future isn't here yet; and I have no way of knowing how much future remains for me (no one does); thus it makes sense to mostly focus on what is right before me, at this moment, at this place, rather than filling my head with time travel fantasies to a remembered past or possible future.

Yes, this is Mindfulness 101. But I'm eager to take that class. And to repeat it, over and over.