Three weeks ago, October 4 to be exact, I was feeling pretty damn good about the presidential election. Eighty-seven percent good, to be exact.
Back then this was the chance Nate Silver of highly respected Five Thirty Eight was giving an Obama win.
Wow!, I thought; 87% is close to 90%, which is so close to 100% I figured Romney should just concede now, rather than waiting for the inevitable.
Unfortunately for progressives like me, Romney showed up at the first debate and Obama didn't. At least, not as the Obama we saw in the second and third debates.
So by October 12, a mere eight days later, Five Thirty Eight had dropped Obama's chance of winning all the way down to 61%. Polls weren't being nice to him, after he'd been overly nice to Romney at the first debate.
But all the talk about "Mittmentum" was premature, just as the earlier presumption that Obama had the election in the bag was. For the past two weeks Romney has been steadily sliding on Five Thirty Eight while Obama has been ascending.
Politics is unpredictable. There will be more ups and downs between now and November 6.
Regardless, the mood must be much brighter in the Obama campaign than in the Romney campaign. It's also a lot brighter inside my own head compared to how I felt a couple of weeks ago.