Avid proponents of Oregon's Measure 49 that we are, it's hard for my wife and I to pass the remaining hours until the votes are counted without worrying about the outcome.
So I've been consulting some cyberspace tea leaves. They've helped me reaffirm my previous prediction that this fix to Measure 37 will pass by a 63% to 37% margin.
The only non-affirming omen that I've gotten was my solitaire loss a few minutes ago after I asked my computer, "Give me a win if Measure 49 will pass." The cards didn't turn out for me. But then, they usually don't. So I'm going to discount this flimsily superstitious forecasting technique.
Somewhat more solid is blogger Jack Bogdanski's "exit poll" on Measures 49 and 50. Leaving aside the (not so minor) quibble that these aren't randomly selected poll-takers, I'm pleased that at last look Measure 49 was getting 70% "Yes" and just 27% "No" out of 932 votes.
On Jack Bog's blog Measure 50 is leading 56% to 41%, which also seems believable.
As of 12:30 pm today, the Multnomah County voter turnout is up to 47%. That's a jump from 42% on Monday. Peter Bray has projected a 52-55% turnout. Maybe a little high, but it's not going to be hugely lower than the statewide voting percentage – which bodes well for Measure 49.
On the intuitive-emotional front, we're going to a Yes on 49 election night party this evening where I've been volunteered to make the coffee in a large coffee maker, which I'm clueless about. My modus operandi is to make java way stronger than most people like it.
So I feel more anxious about making coffee tonight than I am about the Measure 49 outcome. Another good sign. (If 49 passes early in the evening, I'm hoping people will celebrate by drinking so much wine they won't notice how bad the coffee tastes).
Here are the claims in the south Salem area where we live. The Laack subdivision claim that we've been fighting, along with many other neighbors, is the three chunks of blue near the bottom to the left of the I-5 symbol.
And here's an overlay of groundwater restricted areas, the big wash of blue. Almost every Measure 37 claim threatens the water supply of neighbors, which goes a long way toward explaining the resistance to them.
Multiply this exceedingly worrisome pattern of Measure 37 development all around the state, and you have 7,500 excellent reasons to vote "Yes" on Measure 49.
I'm confident that the eyes of Oregonians have been opened to the dangers of Measure 37. But, hey, I could be wrong.
I doubt it, though. If I can figure out how to make the coffee tonight, I'm expecting to have some happy hours ahead of me.
[Update, 5:45 pm: The No on 49 campaign has no parties planned. Another positive tea leaf.]